Normalization is the excuse, the construction of politics is “magnificent”...

Throughout Turkey's political history, when some parties lost their reason for existence, they turned into "signboard parties" and were buried in history. For a political party, losing its reason for existence was often made possible by the emergence of a better alternative, that is, the voter finding a substitute for it. Apart from the party closures during coup periods, the greatest of these ruptures in the ordinary flow of history applied to the True Path Party (DYP) and the Motherland Party (ANAP), which remained below the threshold in the 2002 general elections.

In the same period, voters who preferred the Republican People's Party (CHP) instead of the Democratic Left Party (DSP) brought the CHP, which they had rested for a term, back into parliament and made it a main player.

With the passing of President Turgut Özal in 1993, the election of another important actor of the center-right, Süleyman Demirel, to the presidency by the parliament, and the subsequent Çiller government, the April 5 decisions, the economic crisis, the devaluation of the Turkish Lira as the dollar rose to 38,000 TL, the stock market crisis, and bankruptcies, the center-right, which had lost both its leaders and the public's trust, led to the settlement of conservative right-wing movements in the center.

In such a period, the Welfare Party (Refah Partisi), which achieved success in the 1994 local elections, emerged as Turkey's leading party in the subsequent 1995 elections. With the Refahyol government, February 28, and party closures, the Welfare Party continued its political life first under the name of the Virtue Party (Fazilet Partisi) and then the Felicity Party (Saadet Partisi). In the 1995 elections, with Özal and Demirel withdrawing from active politics and moving to the presidency, the conservative right now held sway in the center-right, which had been vacated.

If we return to the 2002 elections, where the flow of history changed, the Welfare Party, which had governed the country just seven years earlier, had regressed to a 2.49 percent vote share under the name of the Felicity Party. The Democratic Left Party, which entered the election as the ruling party, received 1.22 percent of the vote and withdrew from the political scene. The interesting part was the erasure of the True Path Party and ANAP, whose total vote shares reached 15 percent, from the political arena.

With the establishment of the AK Party and the loss of the reason for existence due to a lack of leadership, even if the center-right parties tried to revive, every attempt ended with a transfer to the AKP. For a long time, no new political party formation was seen in the political arena. That was until the system change that came with the 2017 referendum...

With the system called the Presidential Government System, where the legislative, executive, and judiciary are gathered in one hand, the 50+1 requirement became mandatory in presidential elections. This new situation also led to the rapid establishment of new parties. First the IYI Party, then the Future Party (Gelecek), Deva, and the New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah), which aspires to replace Refah, all broke away from the AK Party...

We said that it is important for a newly established party to create a reason for existence for itself and therefore not to have an alternative, that is, a strong substitute. In the 2023 General Elections, the New Welfare Party created a reason for existence for itself by entering the election under the umbrella of the People's Alliance with its own logo and managed to differentiate itself from other parties that broke away from the AK Party. In the 2024 Local Elections, it managed to win a metropolitan municipality, especially with the echo brought by its stance on the Palestinian issue.

It is not that easy to maintain your reason for existence in a period where ideological differences have almost disappeared, where ideologies have even been shelved, and where the political agenda is determined by populism. With President Erdoğan inviting Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM), transfers from the New Welfare Party to the AKP have accelerated. It is rumored that there will be deputy transfers from other parties as well. As for the IYI Party, we can say that it has long since lost its status as a center of attraction due to the presence of the MHP and the Victory Party (Zafer Partisi), the ruptures within the party, and mistakes such as the wrong positioning in the local elections. It is clear that a difficult period is entering for parties without ideological depth and a sociological base.

The Republican People's Party maintains its existence as the only alternative to the government in any case. Although the contraction in the economy and high inflation increase the weariness of the voters and direct an ordinary flow of interest and votes to the Republican People's Party, it seems important for the opposition to follow developments carefully and take precautions as long as it maintains its existence in the "50+1" system. Ensuring that the economy is discussed less under the pretext of normalization and turning towards the construction of politics is going "magnificently" for the AKP.

In our childhood, Atari games had just come out. One of the games our generation knew best and played first was Pac-Man. The yellow round creature would clear its path by eating the dots in front of it. The AKP is also moving forward as a complete "Pac-Man," eating the right-wing parties that appear in front of it. Beware!