The AK Party's strategy

Turkey is currently in turmoil following the local elections, marked by a flurry of meetings between political leaders. The impact of the discussions, particularly those between Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman Özgür Özel and AK Party Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has become the number one agenda item in Turkish politics. The visit paid by President Erdoğan to the CHP headquarters after 18 years has become a subject of intense curiosity, ranging from the leaders' demeanor and the chairs they sat in, to the painting hanging on the wall and what they ate and drank.

First and foremost, it must be said that Turkey's democratic history is full of political memories where rival leaders were able to meet, hold discussions, and even exchange views on debate programs during various periods. During the AK Party's time in power, these meetings, encounters, and televised debates had given way to polarization, exclusion, and even hostility. Let alone the leaders, even ruling party deputies had stopped appearing on joint debate programs.

An administration so isolated had, over time, become detached from the public and the people's real problems, transforming into a structure that looked down on society. Looking at the different attitude today, we can say that President Erdoğan, having lost power at the local level in the 2024 elections, has realized through his political experience that he needs to do things differently and has constructed a new strategy.

As the opposition public, we are generally accustomed to looking at issues from the perspective of the opposition and the Republican People's Party, so we often overlook what these developments mean for AK Party Chairman Erdoğan, what he is aiming for, and how the strategy will proceed. After the initial proposal for a meeting came from CHP Chairman Özel, President Erdoğan expanded these meetings beyond the CHP, turning them into a strategy by spreading them to different segments of society. Although Özel was the one who set the game in motion, it is clear that Erdoğan aspires to be the decision-maker in how the game progresses.

It can be said that Erdoğan has also identified the reality that the current People's Alliance structure is no longer sufficient to remain in power after the local elections, and that this alliance must absolutely be expanded. Clearly, this expansion strategy is not just based on parties. It is primarily about softening the “anti-Erdoğan” sentiment that exists on the opposition side of the polarization and, if possible, meeting and holding talks with prominent political figures of the opposition public. The meetings that have taken place so far—most notably the one with Republican People's Party Chairman Özgür Özel, the alleged meeting with former President Abdullah Gül before the AKP's 31st Evaluation and Consultation Camp, the reported upcoming meeting with Ayşe Ateş, the wife of the murdered Sinan Ateş, and the meeting with former IYI Party Chairwoman Meral Akşener—can be considered the precursors to meetings that will be held with important names from other segments in the coming days.

Under normal circumstances, it is obvious that the AK Party, which needs a possible early election for President Erdoğan to run for one more term, requires these negotiations to reach the parliamentary majority capable of passing both a new constitution and the early election decision they need.

We are entering a new process where a milder climate will be maintained until the economy recovers slightly and the AK Party prepares for a possible election, during which time transfers in parliament will increase, and names we said would never meet will come together. It is worth keeping in mind that Erdoğan, a leader focused on winning elections and staying in power, is a master at this. The Republican People's Party should not forget that while it can turn this process into an advantage for itself by ensuring the resolution of some important issues, it also carries the danger of dragging Turkey toward a state without an opposition if a certain line is crossed. So far, it can be said that a good balance between negotiation and struggle has been maintained. Another positive outcome of these meetings for the CHP is that it gives honest bureaucrats working in the state the feeling that they will be able to continue their duties comfortably under a possible Republican People's Party government.

Finally, since I mentioned that we have witnessed leaders meeting many times in Turkish political history, since we are normalizing, it wouldn't be bad to see party leaders on a debate program on screen, would it? What do you think?