A breaking point in agriculture: Either structural reform or collapse

Agriculture is not just about planting seeds in the soil; it is about taking root in a country's future. The agricultural sector, which plays a decisive role in critical areas such as food access, rural employment, regional development, and economic independence, is the fundamental pillar of both Turkey's social structure and its strategic existence. However, despite all this vital importance, Turkish agriculture has been struggling with a deep crisis for many years under the weight of unresolved structural problems and increasing cost pressures. The rapid rise in production costs, the departure of the young population from the sector, inadequate support mechanisms, and a lack of planning directly threaten not only livelihoods in rural areas but also dinner tables in cities.

In today's article, we will address the multidimensional crisis that Turkish agriculture is in, using concrete examples from regions where the pulse of production beats, such as Çukurova and Bursa. We will also discuss, in light of international comparisons, the areas where we are lagging behind and which structural reforms are urgent to overcome this crisis.

UNSUSTAINABLE INPUT COSTS AND THE FARMER'S DESPERATION

One of the biggest dilemmas of Turkish agriculture is the sharp and continuous increase in production costs. According to TUIK data, fertilizer prices have risen by 400%, diesel by 300%, and agricultural pesticides by 350% over the last 10 years. These increases have brought small family businesses, in particular, to the point of abandoning production. Field research conducted in the Yüreğir district of Adana has determined that many producers have abandoned their citrus orchards due to rising costs. Similarly, in the Yenişehir Plain of Bursa, producers are being dragged into a debt spiral under the pressure of irrigation electricity expenses and basic input prices.

The total debt of farmers to banks has exceeded 1 trillion TL. While the producer's debt burden is getting heavier every day, the rate of cash loans provided to the sector is also constantly increasing. However, the producer cannot repay these loans due to the rise in input costs and the inability to sell their products at their true value. As the farmer, whose income-expenditure balance has been disrupted, struggles in a debt trap, many producers are leaving the agricultural sector, and fields are falling into the grip of foreclosure. This picture points not only to an individual livelihood crisis but also to a dangerous weakening of Turkey's agricultural production power. As long as the SCT and VAT burden on diesel and fertilizer used in agriculture are not removed, this cost pressure will continue to threaten sustainable production. 

INADEQUACY OF TRAINING PROVIDED TO FARMERS

Productivity in agricultural production is not limited to mechanization or soil; knowledge, planning, and conscious practices are at least as important as physical infrastructure. In Turkey, the vast majority of farmers still work with traditional production methods, and access to modern agricultural techniques remains quite limited. Technical consultancy services within the Provincial Directorates of Agriculture are carried out with both insufficient staff and limited budgets. Especially in Turkey, where the rate of young farmers is below 10%, the education and support of the new generation are of critical importance. According to a study conducted in Bursa, interest in Agricultural Vocational High Schools has decreased by 40% in the last 5 years. In the Çukurova region, the majority of young people prefer to work for minimum wage in city centers instead of agriculture. This situation threatens both the continuity of production and the transfer of knowledge in rural areas. A widespread farmer training mobilization should be launched in areas such as digitalization in agriculture, climate-friendly practices, and irrigation efficiency.

FRAGMENTED AND SCATTERED STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURAL LAND

At the forefront of the productivity problems of Turkish agriculture is the fragmented and scattered structure of the land. The average agricultural land size is under 6 hectares; this rate is well behind the EU average (for example, 55 hectares in France). Due to division through inheritance and unplanned property transfer, approximately 60% of agricultural land is divided into three or more parcels.

In the Karacabey and Mustafakemalpaşa districts of Bursa, producers carry out production on more than 10 separate parcels within the same village boundaries. This creates serious losses in terms of both time and cost, and lowers producer motivation. In Çukurova, productive areas are shrinking due to border roads, canals, and walls. This structure seriously hinders mechanization, modern irrigation systems, and efficient production.

Consolidation efforts, on the other hand, are failing to meet expectations. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the rate of land where consolidation has been completed is still at the 20% level. Bureaucratic confusion, property disputes, and lack of technical infrastructure are effective in the slow progress of the process.

LET US NOT LOSE THE RACE AGAINST DROUGHT: AGRICULTURE CANNOT BE STRENGTHENED WITHOUT RENEWING IRRIGATION INFRASTRUCTURE

According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the share of irrigable agricultural land in the total arable area in Turkey is only 27%. Even in highly productive plains such as Çukurova and Harran, production is largely dependent on rainfall, which leaves agriculture vulnerable to climate risks.

Analyses conducted in Seyhan, Adana, reveal that product losses reach 15% due to the lack of maintenance of irrigation canals and uncontrolled water use. According to the DSI, the use of modern irrigation methods is only at the 18% level. This rate is a serious deficiency in terms of both yield and water saving. This gap becomes even more vital, especially in a period when drought is increasing.

The annual usable water amount in Turkey is approximately 112 billion m³, 74% of which is used in agriculture; however, it is largely lost through evaporation and leakage in open canal systems. Solutions such as the Closed-Circuit Pressurized Irrigation System proposed by the Adana Power Union Foundation are of strategic importance in reducing these losses.

For sustainable agriculture, it is essential to protect groundwater, disseminate modern irrigation technologies, and implement regional water management plans. Otherwise, losses that are difficult to reverse will be experienced in terms of both productivity and food supply security.

THE FUTURE DOES NOT SPROUT IN SOIL PLANTED WITH DEBT

One of the biggest obstacles to agricultural production in Turkey is the difficulty in accessing finance. Small and medium-sized farmers are forced to turn to high-interest loans for basic inputs such as seeds, fertilizer, and diesel before the season. The fact that interest rates often exceed 30% leads the producer to allocate most of their earnings to debt payments.

Subsidized loans from public banks reach only a limited number of producers, while the remaining majority are condemned to the high interest rates of private banks. In a field study conducted in Bursa, it was determined that 65% of farmers use loans from private banks; in Adana, some cotton producers were found to have abandoned their fields without harvesting due to electricity expenses and debts.

The deterioration of the credit record endangers not only that year's production but also sectoral sustainability in the long term. To break this vicious cycle, regulations such as lowering credit interest rates, restructuring debts, and a credit record amnesty should be an urgent priority. In addition, producer supports should be directly linked to production; low-interest, long-term financing sources should be provided to the farmer through cooperatives. Otherwise, the production structure in rural areas may face an irreversible collapse due to financial fragility.

UNPLANNED PRODUCTION, EXPENSIVE TABLES: LACK OF STRATEGY IN AGRICULTURE THREATENS FOOD SECURITY

One of the most fundamental problems in Turkish agriculture is the lack of centralized production planning. Since there is no guiding strategy regarding which product should be planted where and in what quantity, supply-demand imbalances are frequently experienced; while prices fall for some products, high price increases are seen in others.

In 2022, watermelon production increased by 38%, and prices fell by 50%. The production decline in dry onions in the same year was reflected to the consumer as a price hike. Observations in Adana and Bursa reveal that farmers mostly make production decisions based on rumors and the previous year's prices, and that unplanned transitions increase economic risk.

The solution to this problem is the construction of a model based on product-based, regional, and annual planning. Supports should be reduced for products with excess supply, and strategic products should be incentivized. At this point, the contract farming model comes to the fore. This system, which determines in advance what will be produced, where, and in what quantity, provides the producer with a sales guarantee, the market with price stability, and the agricultural sector with efficient resource use. At the same time, it supports regional planning and strengthens sustainability in strategic products.

SHIFT IN DIRECTION IN AGRICULTURE AFTER 1980 AND INCREASING EXTERNAL DEPENDENCE

The critical turning point where agricultural policies changed direction in Turkey was the structural adjustment programs that began to be implemented after 1980. In this process, in line with reforms shaped by the guidance of the World Bank and the IMF, agricultural support purchases were reduced, price stability mechanisms were abolished, and farmers were expected to survive under free market conditions.

During this period, two important projects financed by the World Bank deeply affected the course of Turkish agriculture. The first, the Direct Income Support (DIS) system, envisaged payments to landowners independently of production; however, this practice accelerated the withdrawal from agriculture instead of encouraging production. According to a field analysis conducted in the Çukurova region, 35% of producers receiving DIS left their fields empty and were content with only the income support.

Within the scope of the second project, Alternative Crop Cultivation, the abandonment of traditional and strategic products such as cotton and tobacco was encouraged. Although this approach diversified the production pattern in some regions in the short term, it led to a supply deficit in the domestic market and an increase in external dependence in the long term. Especially with the decline in cotton production, Turkey has become an importer of 52% of the cotton it needs in the textile industry.

The most obvious and lasting effect of all these policies is the farmer's distancing from production and the country's agriculture becoming increasingly dependent on external sources. Therefore, the transition to a planned and sustainable agricultural model based on production has become an unavoidable necessity. Otherwise, Turkey's agricultural sovereignty and food security will continue to be at the mercy of external dynamics.

12TH DEVELOPMENT PLAN: STRATEGIC GOALS IN AGRICULTURE

The 12th Development Plan, covering the 2024–2028 period, aims for an annual growth of 3.1% in the agricultural sector and an increase in its share of GDP to 6.2%. Food supply security, productivity increase, and value-added production are among the main priorities of this plan.

The dissemination of digital and smart agricultural practices, sustainable production models, and effective support systems are prominent topics. In addition, strengthening small family businesses, supporting cooperatives, and bringing the young population into the sector are among the focal points of the plan.

The 2024–2028 Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry details these goals with 7 strategic objectives, 32 targets, and 153 performance indicators; it aims for concrete progress in supply security, quality, rural development, and aquaculture production.

NEW ERA IN AGRICULTURE: UNPLANTED LANDS ARE OPENED TO PRODUCTION

In order to increase productivity in agriculture, privately owned lands that have not been planted for two consecutive years will be leased seasonally by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. With the regulation that entered into force on August 22, 2024, provincial and district directorates will identify idle parcels. If these lands are not planted by the end of September, the leasing process will be initiated.

The new practice will be updated and continued every year; thus, empty agricultural lands will be brought into the economy, and production continuity will be ensured.

AGRICULTURAL SUPPORTS: THERE IS A TARGET, BUT NO REALIZATION

According to the Agriculture Law of 2006, agricultural supports should be at least 1% of the Gross National Product. However, this rate remained at 0.38% in 2022 and only 0.41% in 2023. This inadequacy leads to farmers losing billions of liras every year and moving away from production. This indicates that the farmer cannot receive more than half of their legal right. According to expert assessments, the loss suffered by farmers for the year 2023 alone is over 80 billion TL.

While the OECD average is 1.2%, Turkey remains far below this level. While 30–40% of farmers' incomes in the EU and the USA are met by direct public support, this rate is much lower in Turkey. In addition, supports are mostly carried out through individual applications, which both increases the bureaucratic burden and makes fair distribution difficult. In a survey conducted in Adana, 78% of producers stated that they found the current supports insufficient.

However, in examples like the Netherlands, 70% of producers are cooperative members and can benefit from state supports in a planned manner. For Turkey to close this structural gap, it needs to reduce the tax burden on basic inputs, especially diesel, fertilizer, and electricity, and develop direct support mechanisms for the producer. Otherwise, agricultural production will continue to weaken in both the domestic market and global competition.

CLIMATE CRISIS AND VULNERABILITY IN INSURANCE

The agricultural sector is one of the areas most open to the effects of climate change. The 12% decrease in precipitation and the 27% increase in the frequency of drought over the last 10 years directly threaten agricultural production. For example, the frost event in Bursa in 2025 reduced fruit yield by up to 35%; however, most of the damages remained outside the scope of insurance. A similar picture was experienced in the Kozan and Karataş districts of Adana; citrus producers reported an average of 30% product loss due to consecutive frosts in the last three years.

Across Turkey, only 28% of producers are included in the TARSIM system. High premiums, unreliable damage assessment processes, and payment delays keep the farmer out of the system. According to a study conducted in Bursa, 62% of producers stated that they did not trust TARSIM. Similarly, in the consecutive frost events in Adana, farmers suffered great losses and could not receive compensation.

This fragile structure reveals the importance of an insurance system that is resilient to climate risks in agriculture. The inclusiveness of TARSIM should be increased, premium rates should be lowered, damage processes should be made transparent, and a structure that gives confidence to the producer should be established. Micro-insurance models, especially for small producers, should be disseminated with the support of local governments. Otherwise, the production structure, which remains vulnerable to the climate crisis, will continue to deeply damage agricultural sustainability.

THOSE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE: NEITHER THE PRODUCER NOR THE CONSUMER WINS

Both ends of the agricultural chain in Turkey are losing: While the producer cannot get the return for their labor, food reaches the consumer at exorbitant prices. For example, a tomato that leaves the producer for 3 TL is sold for 21 TL in big cities. At the root of this gap lie intermediaries, high logistics costs, and a scattered marketing structure.

Producers lack bargaining power due to a lack of organization. According to data in Adana, the market access of producer unions is only at the 18% level. This makes the farmer dependent on the merchant and lowers earnings.

On the consumer side, as the chain lengthens, prices rise, and healthy nutrition becomes inaccessible, especially for low-income segments. This constitutes a serious threat not only economically but also in terms of social justice and public health.

The solution lies in shortening the distance between the producer and the consumer, disseminating direct sales models, and strengthening cooperatives. Thus, while the farmer gets the return for their labor, the consumer can also access food at fair prices.

BACKWARDNESS IN COOPERATIVISM: WHY IS THE NETHERLANDS MODEL IMPORTANT?

The key to transformation in agriculture is cooperativism. However, only 14% of producers in Turkey are active cooperative members. This low rate seriously limits the producer's marketing power and organized action capability.

However, cooperatives not only reduce input costs; they also give the producer power in many areas such as storage, marketing, and export. As in the example of the vegetable producers' cooperative in Nilüfer, Bursa, an increase of up to 23% in farmers' incomes has been achieved with the joint purchasing-selling model.

On an international scale, the Netherlands is the most successful example in this field. 70% of agricultural production in the country is carried out through cooperatives; this ensures high productivity in both the domestic market and exports. Despite its small surface area, the Netherlands is the world's second-largest in agricultural exports.

It is inevitable for Turkey to take this model as an example and disseminate an integrated cooperative structure that covers the entire process from production to packaging, from branding to sales. This structure, which will be developed with the support of local government and development agencies, can save the farmer from loneliness and turn them into a powerful actor in the market.

CONCLUSION: THE WAY OUT OF THE CRISIS IS STRUCTURAL AGRICULTURAL REFORM

Agriculture is not just an indicator of production; it is an indicator of a nation's will to hold on to the future. Turkish agriculture today is struggling for existence with rising costs, fragmented land, and inadequate planning and support mechanisms. However, this crisis can be overcome through a production model guided by the right policies, strong cooperative structures, sustainable resource use, and an approach that puts the farmer at the center. The structural steps to be taken today will secure not only the rural areas but also the country's economic independence and social peace. It should not be forgotten that a country with strong agriculture also has a strong tomorrow.

The steps that need to be taken for this transformation are clear: Reducing input costs, educational moves that will bring young people into the sector, land consolidation and strengthening of irrigation infrastructure, basing production planning on scientific foundations, and facilitating access to finance should be priorities. Cooperativism should be revitalized, production resilient to the climate crisis should be encouraged; insurance systems should be simplified and restructured to include small farmers.

As a result, agriculture is not just a rural activity; it is the foundation of national security, economic independence, and social welfare. Turkey can protect both its producer and its consumer by making long-term and determined investments in this field. Every strategic step taken today will trigger a chain of improvement that covers not only the rural areas but the entire country. It will carry Turkey to a development ground that will protect it not only from food crises but also from economic fluctuations. Strong agriculture means a strong future.