As the economic crisis deepens: The language of numbers and the reality of the people

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) has announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April 2025. Although official figures claim that inflation is “under control,” the erosion of the purchasing power of the average citizen on the street, the price increases reflected daily on supermarket shelves, and income inequality once again reveal that the gap between official statistics and the reality of the people is deepening, raising questions about how realistic this “control” actually is. On the other hand, the contradiction between the claim in TÜİK’s March 2025 labor statistics that the unemployment rate is at “reasonable levels” and the hunger and poverty threshold data from TÜRK-İŞ presents a striking picture for understanding the dimensions of the economic crisis.  

TÜİK’s Inflation: Numbers or Sentiment?

According to TÜİK, the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April 2025 showed an increase of 3% compared to the previous month, an increase of 13.36% compared to December of the previous year, an increase of 37.86% compared to the same month of the previous year, and an increase of 48.73% according to twelve-month averages. According to the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), inflation in April showed an increase of 4.46% compared to the previous month and an increase of 73.88% compared to the same month of the previous year. In particular, the exorbitant price increases in basic food products, housing rents, and the rise in energy costs continue to burn the pockets of citizens. Contrary to the figures announced by TÜİK, the fact that a pensioner shopping at a market sees that the prices of the products in their basket have increased even more brings to mind the question of how much statistics overlap with daily life.  

This incompatibility between official data and real life also brings with it doubts about the methodology of calculating inflation. The fact that some items in TÜİK’s basket do not match consumption habits fuels criticisms that “inflation figures do not reflect the truth.” On the other hand, while the Central Bank’s interest rate policies and inflation-fighting strategy deepen the contraction in the real sector, cost increases in the chain extending from producer to consumer make price stability a distant dream.  

Unemployment: Visible or Invisible? 

According to TÜİK’s March 2025 labor statistics, the number of unemployed persons aged 15 and over was 2 million 807 thousand. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 7.9%. The unemployment rate was estimated at 6.5% for men and 10.6% for women. However, when this rate is not evaluated within the scope of “broad-defined unemployment,” and when informal workers, those who have given up hope of finding a job, and those forced to work in temporary jobs are taken into account, it reaches 28.8%, becoming a much more dire situation. Especially in an environment where the rate of “young people not in education or employment” is approaching 25%, it is clear that employment packages and incentives remain insufficient.  

Moreover, while a large portion of the working segment tries to make a living with the minimum wage of 22,104 TL (19 thousand 499 lira according to TÜİK with the increase in inflation, 18 thousand 203 lira according to ENAG), according to TÜRK-İŞ’s April 2025 data, the monthly food expenditure amount required for a family of 4 to eat a healthy, balanced, and sufficient diet (HUNGER THRESHOLD) has exceeded 24,035 TL, and the total amount of other monthly expenditures mandatory for clothing, housing (rent, electricity, water, fuel), transportation, education, health, and similar needs along with food expenditures (POVERTY THRESHOLD) has exceeded 78,292 TL. In other words, in a country where a family of four needs a monthly income of 78,292 TL to “live humanely,” the fact that the minimum wage is 22,104 TL shows how widespread working poverty has become.  

Poverty Threshold or Survival Threshold?

TÜRK-İŞ’s data reveals that even the definition of “poverty” has lost its validity in Turkey. The hunger threshold is calculated as the amount required for an individual to meet only their basic food needs. However, when rent, electricity, water, natural gas, transportation, and health expenses are added, we are faced with a picture that turns into a “struggle for survival” for the minimum wage earner.  

This situation is even more severe for pensioners, those on fixed incomes, and precarious workers. The state’s social assistance and inflation-fighting policies cannot prevent chronic poverty. Moreover, due to tax injustice and the informal economy, the burden on the shoulders of those with low and fixed incomes is increasing day by day.  

Strengthening the Social State at the Local Level

Current economic data show that the policies of the central government are insufficient to meet the needs of large segments of society. In this context, strengthening the understanding of the social state at the local level is gaining importance.

The Role of Local Governments

Local governments are the public institutions closest to the daily lives of citizens. Therefore, they need to take a more active role in the planning and implementation of social services. In particular, the provision of basic services such as food, housing, health, and education at the local level can increase the effectiveness of services.

Participatory Budgeting and Transparency

Planning the budgets of local governments with the participation of the public and in a transparent manner can ensure that resources are used more fairly and effectively. This approach can contribute to the development of policies that are more sensitive to the needs of society.

Localization of Social Assistance Programs

Planning and implementing social assistance programs at the local level can ensure that aid reaches the target audience faster and more effectively. This can contribute to strengthening social solidarity, especially during times of crisis.

Conclusion: Economic Policies Do Not Match the Realities of the People

Although TÜİK’s figures are defended by officials by saying “annual inflation is trending downward,” the money in the pocket of the person on the street is eroding more and more every day. Even if unemployment appears to be “falling” officially, the decrease in qualified and decent jobs is consuming the future hopes of young people. TÜRK-İŞ’s hunger and poverty threshold data show how deep the social dimension of the economic crisis has become.  

Instead of producing permanent and fair policies in the fight against inflation, the government tends to postpone the problem with temporary measures. However, deep-rooted reforms are essential to support production, eliminate injustice in income distribution, and ensure that labor receives the value it deserves. Otherwise, the gap between official statistics and the realities of the people will continue to widen, and the bill for the economic crisis will be paid by the most vulnerable segments.  

Today, it is time to look beyond the numbers and hear the voice of the person on the street. Because true development can only be possible with a fair economic order.