Erosion of trust and institutional decay: Turkey's silent crisis in light of the Corruption Perceptions Index

The results of the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index show that the biggest problem Turkey faces is not just inflation, unemployment, or growth performance; beyond these, it is experiencing a deepening crisis of trust and institutions. According to data from Transparency International, Turkey has become one of the countries with the greatest decline in corruption perception globally over the last decade, receiving one of its lowest scores in history in 2025 and falling to the lower ranks of the global index. This picture is not merely a criticism of public administration; it is an indicator of a broad institutional decay extending from the rule of law to the meritocracy system, and from the investment environment to the sense of social justice.

This is because corruption is not just a technical and legal area of violation concerning courtrooms or legislative pages. It is an economic, political, and sociological phenomenon that directly affects a country's economic development potential, the functionality of its democratic institutions, the effectiveness of its public administration, and, most importantly, social trust—the fundamental mortar that holds society together. For this reason, the annually published Corruption Perceptions Index is not just a ranking that measures a country's reputation; it is also an important reference indicator that evaluates institutional quality, the rule of law, accountability, and the investment climate. Indeed, the index results reveal that corruption is increasing on a global scale, and that corruption perception is rising even in countries with traditionally strong democratic institutions. Transparency International points out that behind this picture lies the weakening of courageous political leadership in the fight against corruption and the gradual loss of the will for reform.

The decline Turkey has experienced in recent years points to a much deeper institutional erosion beyond the global trend. Because when corruption increases, it is not only public resources that are wasted; the trust that society has in the state, institutions, and each other also erodes. Where trust erodes, it is not sustainable development that emerges, but an economic and social order fueled by rent-seeking, favoritism, and short-term interests.

WHAT IS THE CORRUPTION PERCEPTIONS INDEX AND WHAT DOES IT TELL US?

The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), published annually by Transparency International, is one of the most widely referenced governance indicators globally that measures the perception of corruption in the public sector. The index scores countries between 0 and 100 based on assessments by independent experts, business representatives, and international rating agencies. On this scale, a score of 0 represents a structure where the public sector is perceived as highly corrupt, while a score of 100 indicates a highly transparent and accountable public administration.

However, the importance of the CPI does not stem solely from its ranking. Instead of directly counting corruption cases that occur behind closed doors, the index measures the level of trust that actors living, investing, and interacting with public institutions in that country have in institutional structures. In this respect, the Corruption Perceptions Index is a powerful indicator reflecting a country's judicial independence, freedom of the press, the effectiveness of civil society, accountability in public administration, and the transparency with which public resources are managed. Therefore, every point lost in the index actually signals a weakening in the immune system of the institutional structure.

The 2025 results reveal a striking picture not only for Turkey but also on a global scale. According to Transparency International's data, corruption continues to be a significant problem in almost every region of the world; the weakening of democratic oversight mechanisms and the lack of accountable leadership make the fight against corruption increasingly difficult. The organization draws attention to the fact that the erosion of democratic checks and balances and the increasing pressure on independent media and civil society are amplifying corruption risks.

Indeed, the global picture presented by the index is quite thought-provoking. In the 2025 index, which evaluated 182 countries and territories, the global average score fell to 42, reaching its lowest level in recent years. While more than two-thirds of countries remained below 50 points, only a few countries were able to perform above 80 points. Denmark topped the list for the eighth consecutive time with 89 points, followed by Finland and Singapore. At the bottom of the list are countries such as South Sudan, Somalia, and Venezuela, where political instability, weak institutions, and conflict environments prevail.

Even more striking is the global trend observed over the last decade. While even many countries once cited as examples in the fight against corruption are experiencing a decline, the relationship between the erosion of democratic standards and the deterioration in corruption perception is becoming increasingly visible. Since 2012, the scores of numerous countries have dropped significantly; institutional fragility, cronyism, and a lack of accountability have become persistent problems in many nations. Since 2012, the CPI scores of 50 countries have declined significantly. Among the countries experiencing the sharpest drops are Turkey (31), Hungary (40), and Nicaragua (14). This group, which includes Turkey, clearly demonstrates that the worsening in corruption perception is not only an economic issue but also a legal, political, and social one. This is because once corruption becomes embedded in institutional structures, it becomes much more difficult and costly to eradicate.

TURKEY'S LOW POINT: Historical Decline and the Current Picture

The picture presented by the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index for Turkey is not merely a change in score or ranking. The released data serves as a serious warning, revealing the extent reached by the long-standing institutional erosion and loss of trust.

In 2025, Turkey lost another three points compared to the previous year, falling to 31 points and reaching one of the lowest levels in the history of the index. Even more striking is the drop in the global ranking. In the index, where more than 180 countries are evaluated, Turkey has fallen to 124th place, remaining behind many developing countries. This is a development that must be evaluated carefully, not only in terms of international perception but also regarding the country's institutional capacity and investment climate.

In fact, the picture we face today is not the result of a sudden deterioration. Turkey's decline in corruption perception is the product of a structural process spanning many years. Indeed, Turkey, which ranked 53rd in the world with 50 points in 2013, has lost nearly twenty points over the last twelve years, falling more than seventy places. The declines experienced during this process have ceased to be temporary fluctuations and have turned into a permanent trend.

An even more noteworthy point is that Turkey has fallen behind not only its own past performance but also global and regional averages. At a time when the global average is 42 points, Turkey remaining at 31 points indicates serious problems in the areas of institutional quality, the rule of law, accountability, and public administration. Similarly, the fact that it is below the average of the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region, to which Turkey belongs, reveals that the problem is structural rather than cyclical.

The most important feature of the Corruption Perceptions Index is that it not only shows the current situation but also provides important signals regarding the future. This is because, for investors, international organizations, and global capital flows, such indicators can be as decisive as economic data. Countries whose institutions are not trusted, where legal predictability is weak, and where accountability mechanisms have eroded, struggle to attract long-term investments; they face high risk premiums, low investment appetite, and weakening growth performance.

For this reason, Turkey's decline in the index is not just a reputation problem. It is also an indicator of a multi-dimensional institutional decay that directly affects economic development capacity, the investment climate, social trust, and the functioning of democratic institutions. The real question is no longer why Turkey is declining, but how the will for reform to stop and reverse this decline will be demonstrated.

As the institutional economics literature frequently emphasizes, the fundamental factor determining the long-term success of countries is not their natural resources or short-term growth performance, but the quality of their institutions. While countries with strong rules, effective oversight mechanisms, and established rule of law gain significant advantages in sustainable development, countries with weakening institutional structures face economic and social costs over time.

The decline Turkey has experienced in recent years should be evaluated precisely within this framework. This is because the deterioration in corruption perception is, in fact, an expression of a larger problem: the loss of institutional trust, the lack of accountability, and the decline in the quality of governance. This picture leads us not only to a management problem but also to the consequences of an economic and moral transformation.

WHY ARE WE HERE? The Collapse in Corruption Perception, Institutional Erosion, and Immoral Growth

It is not possible to explain Turkey's continuous decline in the Corruption Perceptions Index solely through economic fluctuations or periodic political developments. The emerging picture points to a much deeper and structural problem. The losses in points and rankings over the last decade show that corruption has moved beyond isolated incidents and has acquired a systemic character that affects the institutional structure.

The Corruption Perceptions Index does not directly measure corruption cases; it reflects the assessments of investors, the business world, experts, and international organizations regarding public administration. Therefore, the decline in the index is actually an international reflection of the erosion Turkey is experiencing in the areas of rule of law, accountability, transparency, and institutional trust.

So, why are we here?

The answer to this question lies largely in the weakening of democratic oversight mechanisms, the erosion of the principle of separation of powers, and the decline in institutional independence. The decrease in transparency in the use of public resources, the fact that the public procurement system is increasingly subject to exceptions, and the replacement of a merit-based management approach with loyalty-based relationships have been the fundamental developments that have damaged the bond of trust between the state and society.

More importantly, the loss of effectiveness of regulatory and supervisory institutions, the deepening of debates regarding judicial independence, and the weakening of accountability mechanisms have eroded the most important protective shields in the fight against corruption. Indeed, Turkey's low ranking in the World Justice Project's Rule of Law Index confirms that the problems experienced in the areas of rule of law and institutional trust are also verified at the international level. In fact, Turkey's low ranking in the World Justice Project (WJP) Rule of Law Index (118th out of 142 countries) confirms how the law, which is the greatest shield in the fight against corruption, has ceased to be a protective armor. In an environment where the law weakens, oversight becomes ineffective, and accountability disappears, corruption ceases to be an individual deviation and becomes a natural part of the system.

It is precisely at this point that the transformation of the Turkish economy becomes noteworthy. Over time, the economy has shifted away from an axis of production, productivity, and innovation, evolving into a structure where rent-seeking, privileges, and short-term interests are more decisive. Consequently, an ever-expanding network of interests has emerged, in which individuals, firms, and various interest groups participate for the sake of short-term gains.

At the center of this structure lies an order where rent is rewarded more than production, relationships more than competition, and loyalty more than merit. Non-meritocratic appointments, partisan hiring, injustices in the allocation of public resources, non-competitive tender processes, various tax exemptions, incentives, and treasury guarantees are the most visible elements of this order. While these mechanisms provide gains to certain segments in the short term, they erode both economic efficiency and the sense of social justice in the long term.

What is more dangerous is that this process transforms social behavioral patterns over time. In an environment where the perception that those who follow the rules are disadvantaged while those who bend them are advantaged becomes widespread, unethical behaviors become normalized, and individuals and institutions begin to turn to the same methods to protect themselves. Thus, corruption ceases to be merely a legal problem and transforms into a structure that shapes social culture and economic behavior.

As a result, we are facing not only an economic crisis but also an institutional and moral one. This is because economic losses can be compensated to a certain extent; however, the reconstruction of eroded institutional trust, damaged sense of justice, and corrupted social values is a much longer and more costly process. Therefore, the issue is not just economic growth. The real issue is the institutional and moral foundation upon which growth takes place. At the heart of sustainable development lies trust before capital, the rule of law before investment, justice before growth, and ethics before the economy. Turkey's decline in the Corruption Perceptions Index reminds us of exactly this.

THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOCIAL CONTRACT: Informal Economy, Tax Injustice, and Erosion of Trust

One of the most destructive effects of corruption is that it erodes the invisible social contract that exists between the state and the citizen. Citizens who believe that the state will be governed fairly, transparently, and accountably pay taxes, follow rules, and fulfill their public responsibilities. However, as the perception that public resources are allocated to specific interest groups, opportunities are not distributed equally, and accountability is weak strengthens, the trust of citizens in the state and institutions is also damaged.

One of the most concrete reflections of this loss of trust in the economic sphere is the growth of the informal economy and the weakening of voluntary tax compliance. Individuals and businesses who believe that the tax burden is not shared fairly can, over time, begin to legitimize informal activities. Thus, the perception of corruption not only reduces trust in public administration but also erodes tax morality.

The growth of informality creates new pressures on public finance. As the tax base narrows, the state resorts more to indirect taxes to meet its revenue needs, and as a result, the tax burden is spread across all segments of society regardless of income level. Today, the fact that a significant portion of tax revenues in Turkey consists of indirect taxes such as VAT and SCT brings with it discussions regarding the justice dimension of the tax system. Because a low-income citizen and a high-income citizen paying similar rates of tax on basic consumption expenditures can further deepen inequalities in income distribution. Thus, while the perception of corruption fuels tax injustice, tax injustice paves the way for poverty and social inequalities to become permanent.

Another dimension of the problem is its impact on the investment and entrepreneurship climate. In economies where rule-based competition weakens and relationships and privileges become the deciding factors, honest investors and productive entrepreneurs struggle to make long-term plans. 

However, the cost of corruption is not limited to economic indicators. The deeper and more lasting impact emerges on society's sense of justice and social capital. In an environment where unfair gain takes precedence over labor and cronyism replaces merit, citizens' trust in institutions erodes, and their hopes for a shared future weaken. Especially for younger generations, the strengthening perception that working, producing, and rising through education are not enough damages the sense of social belonging.

The brain drain that has increased in recent years is also one of the significant consequences of this picture. The tendency of qualified and educated young people to head toward countries that are more predictable, fairer, and where equal opportunity is stronger is not just an economic loss; it is also a sociological reflection of the social trust crisis. This is because people want to live in societies where they believe they can receive the rewards for their labor and plan their futures with confidence, not just for higher income.

CONCLUSION: Rebuilding Trust

Corruption is not just the waste of public resources; it is a silent collapse that erodes a society's belief in the future, its trust in its institutions, and its will to live together. The decline Turkey has experienced in the Corruption Perceptions Index points to a loss far more important than economic indicators: the loss of institutional trust. Yet, at the foundation of sustainable development lies trust before capital, justice before growth, the rule of law before investment, and ethics before the economy.

The picture revealed by the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index is a powerful warning that can no longer be ignored. Escaping the spiral we are in cannot be achieved with regulations aimed at saving the day, temporary measures, or efforts at perception management. What is needed are comprehensive reforms that will strengthen the institutional structure, a strong political will, and a transformation of mindset that encompasses all segments of society.

The path to this transformation is clear. Transparency and accountability in public administration must be brought up to universal standards; full oversight must be ensured in the use of public resources. The Public Procurement Law must be reorganized to strengthen competition, the Court of Accounts audits must cover all public expenditures without exception, and audit results must be supported by effective sanction mechanisms. In public administration, merit, not loyalty, must be the basis for recruitment, appointment, and promotion processes; the principles of judicial independence and the rule of law must be guaranteed in a way that leaves no room for debate.

However, it should not be forgotten that the fight against corruption is not just a matter of legal or administrative reform. This struggle is also a prerequisite for development, democratization, fair distribution, and social peace. Because where trust erodes, investment weakens, production declines, the sense of justice can be damaged, and social solidarity suffers. Conversely, in societies where trust is re-established, both economic prosperity and democratic stability rise on much stronger foundations.

What Turkey needs today is not just more growth; it is to rebuild trust by constructing fairer, more transparent, and more reliable institutions. Because a country's true wealth does not lie in its natural resources or economic size, but in the confidence its citizens and investors have in its future. Economies can replace lost capital over time; however, rebuilding the trust that societies have lost is a much longer and more arduous process. Where trust ends, neither the economy can hold together nor can society breathe.