From demographic advantage to vulnerability: Is Turkey silently losing its future?

Turkey is undergoing a profound transformation in the shadow of demographic silence. Its population structure, which still appears strong from the outside, has begun to unravel from within: The young population is rapidly decreasing, fertility is declining, and the elderly population is increasing. The data showing that we are moving away from being a young society is not just a warning; it is a harbinger of a reality that will be difficult to reverse. If this silent change is not guided by strategic interventions today, it could leave Turkey facing serious structural problems in the near future, such as economic stagnation, loss of productivity, and increasing pressure on social security systems.

July 11, 1987, the date the world population reached 5 billion, was declared “World Population Day” by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); every year on this date, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has aimed to draw attention to population and development issues on a global scale. According to the “World Population Day, 2025” report published by TÜİK in July 2025, as of 2024, India became the world's most populous country with 1.45 billion people, followed by China (1.42 billion) and the USA (345 million). These three countries account for 39.4% of the 8.2 billion world population.

Turkey, with a population of 85 million 664 thousand 944, ranks 18th among 194 countries, and this position still indicates significant potential on a global scale. However, the fact that its share of the world population is only 1% shows that this potential is turning into a limited influence, while also bringing with it an increasing demographic vulnerability. Because the determinant of demographic power is not just numbers, but the quality of the social structure that carries those numbers. Current data from TÜİK clearly reveals that Turkey has reached a fragile threshold in this structure and is rapidly losing its young population advantage.

Child Population is Declining: Population is No Longer a Strength, But a Source of Vulnerability

The child population ratio in Turkey (the 0-17 age group within the total population) was measured at 25.5% as of 2024. This rate remains below the world average of 29.6%. African countries, in particular, are far ahead in child population ratios. For example, while the child population ratio in the Central African Republic reaches 56.5%, this country is followed by Niger with 53.7% and Somalia and Mali with 53.2%. In contrast, the countries with the lowest child population ratios are the Republic of Korea with 13.2%, Japan with 14.2%, and Singapore with 14.7%. When compared with European Union countries, it is seen that Turkey's child population ratio of 25.5% is higher than the child population ratios of the 27 EU member countries. According to United Nations world population estimates, when the child population ratios of the 27 European Union (EU) member countries are examined, it is seen that the countries with the highest child population ratios in 2024 are Ireland with 22.7%, Sweden with 20.5%, and France with 20.2%, respectively. The countries with the lowest child population ratios are Italy with 14.8%, Malta with 15.6%, and Portugal with 15.7%, respectively.

Considering that Turkey's child population ratio (25.5%) is higher than the EU average (17.6%), although it appears relatively advantageous in this area, the dramatic decline in fertility rates shows that this advantage is not sustainable.

Youth in Erosion, Aging on the Rise: Time is Working Against Turkey

A similar picture exists in terms of the young population. The ratio of young people between the ages of 15-24 in Turkey is 14.9%. The world average is 15.6%. Among the countries with the highest young population ratios, Syria stands out with 23.5%, South Sudan with 22.9%, and the Central African Republic with 22.4%. High-income countries such as Monaco (8.7%), Malta (9%), and Qatar (9.2%) are at the bottom of the world rankings in terms of young population ratios. When the young population ratios of the 27 European Union countries, which average 10.6%, are examined, it is seen that the countries with the highest young population ratios in 2024 are Ireland with 13.3%, France with 12.3%, and the Netherlands and Denmark with 12.1%, respectively. It is seen that the countries with the lowest young population ratios are Malta with 9%, Germany with 9.5%, and Slovenia with 9.7%, respectively.

Although Turkey has a younger society compared to EU countries, this gap is closing rapidly. Especially the difficulties experienced in education and employment limit the participation of the young population in economic and social life. This means that the demographic advantage cannot be converted into development. This development indicates that Turkey is about to lose its “young country” advantage and is rapidly beginning to resemble the aging population structure of European countries.

Aging Turkey: A Society Not Ready for the Future

Data on the elderly population (population aged 65 and over) reveals that Turkey is aging rapidly. The ratio of the elderly population to the total population has reached 10.6%. This rate is above the world average of 10.2%. According to United Nations world population estimates, when the ratios of the elderly population aged 65 and over within the total populations of countries are examined, it is seen that the country with the highest elderly population ratio in 2024 is Monaco with 36.2%. This country is followed by Japan with 29.8% and Italy with 24.6%. It is seen that the country with the lowest elderly population ratio is Qatar with 1.7%. This country is followed by the United Arab Emirates with 1.8% and Zambia with 1.9%. When the elderly population ratios of the 27 EU member countries with an average of 22% are examined, it is seen that the countries with the highest elderly population ratios are Italy with 24.6%, Portugal with 24.5%, and Greece and Finland with 23.9%, respectively. The countries with the lowest elderly population ratios are the Republic of Cyprus with 14.6%, Luxembourg with 15.5%, and Ireland with 15.9%, respectively.

Although Turkey has not yet reached these levels, considering the current fertility rate and the increase in life expectancy, the share of the elderly population will rise rapidly within the next decade. Compared to European Union countries, Turkey appears relatively young; however, this gap is closing rapidly, and if Turkey does not take the necessary precautions, it will face the economic and social problems of an aging society.

Fertility Alarm: Turkey is Below the Replacement Threshold

Fertility data makes the picture Turkey faces demographically even more worrying. As of 2024, the total fertility rate has declined to the level of 1.48 children. This rate refers to the average number of children a woman can have in the 15-49 age range where she is fertile. However, in the 1950s, this value was at the level of 6-7 children; it remained above 5 until the 1970s. Although it briefly rose slightly above 2.1 at the beginning of the 2000s, this trend has reversed in recent years. Today, Turkey is well below not only the world average of 2.25, but also the threshold value of 2.1 required for the population to replace itself. The fact that this rate, which was 2.38 in 2001, has shown such a sharp decline in twenty years is a serious warning.

Looking at global comparisons, the country with the highest fertility rate in 2024 was Chad with 6.03 children; followed by Somalia (6.01) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (5.98). On the other hand, the country with the lowest fertility rate is the Republic of Korea with 0.73 children. This country has become one of the first examples that can no longer replace its population internally. Singapore (0.95) and Ukraine (0.99) have a similar picture. It is seen that Turkey is also rapidly approaching this low fertility trajectory.

Although fertility rates are on a downward trend across Europe, some countries such as France, Romania, and Bulgaria have managed to achieve limited increases in these rates thanks to family policies and social support systems. While the average for European Union (EU) countries is 1.42, the highest fertility rate is in Bulgaria (1.75); followed by Romania (1.71) and France (1.64). The lowest rates are seen in countries such as Malta (1.11), Italy and Lithuania (1.21), and Spain (1.22).

In Turkey, the lack of social policies supporting fertility is among the main reasons for this decline. The limited availability of free and accessible daycare services, insufficient preschool support, the absence of flexible working models that would encourage women's participation in the workforce, and the lack of practices such as housing support directly affect families' decisions to have children. As a result, the fertility crisis has become not only a demographic but also a socioeconomic risk.

Life Expectancy is Increasing, But Quality is Questioned

Life expectancy at birth in Turkey, as of 2024, is 77.3 years, which is above the world average of 73.3 years. When viewed by gender, this period is measured as 74.7 years for men and 80 years for women. While these values are above the world averages of 70.7 years (men) and 76 years (women), the difference that women live longer than men is 5.2 years in Turkey, while this difference is 5.3 years in the global average.

The countries with the highest life expectancy gap between genders are Russia (11.7 years) and Ukraine (9.6 years), which have been in an environment of war and crisis for a long time. In contrast, the countries with the lowest gap are Nigeria (0.6 years) and Togo (0.5 years). Another striking fact is that in none of the 194 countries examined is the average life expectancy of men longer than that of women.

According to 2024 data, the country with the longest life expectancy at birth for men is Monaco with 84.6 years. San Marino (84.3), Australia, and Andorra (82.3) follow this country. The lowest life expectancy was recorded in Chad with 53.4 years; followed by Nigeria (54.3) and South Sudan (54.8).

While the average life expectancy for men in the 27 European Union (EU) member countries is 78 years, the countries with the longest life expectancy are Italy (81.8), Sweden (81.6), and Malta (81.5). The lowest values are seen in Lithuania (71.4), Latvia (71.8), and Bulgaria (72.3).

For women, the highest life expectancy was measured in Monaco again with 88.6 years. Japan (87.9) and South Korea (87.3) were other prominent countries. The lowest female life expectancy was seen in Nigeria (54.9 years), followed by Chad (57.2) and the Central African Republic (59.6).

The EU average for women is 83.5 years, and the highest values were recorded in Spain (86.4), France (86.2), and Italy (85.9). The lowest life expectancies are in Bulgaria (79.4), Romania (79.7), and Hungary (80.3).

Although Turkey is above the global average for both women and men, the quality of life regarding the old age period is quite low. The prevalence of chronic diseases, elderly poverty, the fact that cities are not elderly-friendly, and inadequate care services constitute the most fundamental weaknesses in this area.

Disintegration in Population Structure: From Numerical Advantage to Weakness

The data presented clearly shows that Turkey's demographic structure is at a critical threshold. As child and young population ratios decline, the elderly population is increasing rapidly. The fertility rate is well below the level required for the population to replace itself. Although the increase in life expectancy is a positive development, the existing social service infrastructure is far from sufficient to support this increase. This situation points to an unbalanced population structure with weak sustainability.

If this trend continues, not only the population structure but also Turkey's economic and social balances will be seriously affected. The decrease in the young population will reduce the number of individuals of working age; this will mean a decrease in productivity, labor shortages, and pressure on economic growth. At the same time, the increasing pension burden and health expenditures of an aging society will strain the social security system and deepen the pressure on the public budget.

Serious changes in the education system will also become inevitable. The decrease in the number of students will lead to the downsizing of schools, an oversupply of teachers, and new planning needs in educational infrastructure. On the other hand, the aging voter profile will also transform political preferences and agendas; the priorities of the elderly population will become increasingly decisive in policy-making.

What Should Be Done? Demographic Policy Recommendations for Turkey

In order for Turkey to reverse its current demographic trends, it needs to redesign its population policies with a holistic and long-term development vision that does not reduce them only to the number of children. This problem cannot be solved with a few financial incentives or short-term support. Responding to the fertility crisis is only possible with integrated social policies.

Fertility rates should not be expected to increase without establishing a structure that encourages women's participation in the workforce, makes childcare a public service, and supports the family not only economically but also socially. In this direction, the expansion of public daycare centers, the improvement of maternity leaves in terms of duration and conditions, and the development of flexible and secure working models for working parents should be among the critical steps.

On the other hand, not only the quantity but also the quality of the young population is important. Equality of opportunity in education should be ensured, youth employment should be increased, and entrepreneurship should be supported. Likewise, the sustainability of the social security system against the increasing elderly population should be guaranteed; care services should be expanded, and cities should be redesigned in an age-friendly manner.

However, beyond all these technical steps, the most fundamental need is to restore confidence in the future to society. Unless a predictable and stable political atmosphere based on the rule of law is established, concerns about the decision to have children cannot be eliminated. Demographic sustainability is directly related not only to economic measures but also to social justice and social peace.

Conclusion: Taking Action Before Losing the Future

TÜİK data clearly shows that Turkey is no longer a young society and is rapidly moving towards an aging population structure. This transformation points to a structural crisis that affects many areas, from social security to the health system, from the economy to social balance. In particular, the sharp decline in the fertility rate seriously threatens long-term economic sustainability and social stability.

Although Turkey still appears to be a relatively young country, this advantage is rapidly eroding. Declining fertility, an increasing elderly population, and weak social policies are turning the future into an uncertain and fragile structure. This picture needs to be evaluated not only with numerical data but also with the socioeconomic problems reflected in the lives of individuals.

Turkey is rapidly losing its young population advantage, and its demographic structure is undergoing a silent but profound transformation. Demography is no longer just a census; it is the fundamental determinant of development strategies. The visionary and holistic steps to be taken today will not only alleviate the current crisis but will also shape the quality of life of future generations. Otherwise, Turkey will become a society with decreasing productivity, strained social systems, and a loss of confidence in the future.