Those who are late will lose: New competition in the green transition and Turkey’s regional test (Tekirdağ–Adana)

The rules of competition in the global economy are being redefined; carbon costs, ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria, and green finance are becoming the decisive axes for production and investment decisions. This transformation, which has gained momentum with the European Green Deal, represents not only an environmental compliance process for Turkey but also a strategic turning point where the architecture of industry, agriculture, and finance is being holistically restructured.

The industry-intensive production structure of Tekirdağ and the potential of Adana based on the integration of agriculture, industry, and energy embody both the vulnerabilities and the opportunities of this new economic order. In this context, carbon is no longer just an environmental indicator; it is emerging as the new economic frontier that determines the competitiveness of countries, cities, and companies. The green transition is increasingly ceasing to be a matter of choice and is becoming the fundamental determinant of competition.

THE NEW REALITY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Sustainable development is no longer a ground for theoretical debate; it has transformed into a structural reality that directly determines economic decision-making processes. The balance between economic growth and environmental limits is today not just a policy goal, but a mandatory parameter at the center of investment and production strategies.

While green finance forms the financial backbone of this transformation, ESG criteria shape its measurement and auditing dimensions. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals serve as the reference framework that determines the global direction of this new architecture.

At this point, the financial system has ceased to be merely a mechanism for allocating capital and has transformed into a strategic actor that determines the direction, speed, and quality of development. Capital is no longer acting solely in search of returns, but through a multidimensional definition of risk.

Within this new structure, sustainability is not an “extra element” outside the economic system; it has become the main axis that is restructuring the system itself.

MULTIDIMENSIONAL ECONOMY: Environment and Society at the Same Table

The most critical contribution of the ESG approach is that it subjects economic activities to a multidimensional valuation system, moving them beyond a purely profit-oriented evaluation. While carbon emissions, energy efficiency, and resource use come to the fore in the environmental dimension, labor rights, social inclusion, and corporate ethics criteria become decisive in the social dimension.

Carbon taxes and emissions trading systems make environmental costs visible, integrating the “polluter pays” principle into the market mechanism. Thus, firms are forced to compete not only with their economic performance but also with their environmental and social impacts.

The social dimension goes beyond the production process; it covers a wide sphere of influence from the supply chain to the end consumer. In this respect, ESG offers a holistic framework that redefines economic activities from the perspective of social responsibility.

Circular economy practices and sustainable production models not only reduce environmental burdens but also increase the long-term resilience and competitiveness of companies. Thus, sustainability ceases to be a cost factor and turns into a strategic advantage and a tool for long-term value creation.

INTERGENERATIONAL JUSTICE AND CIRCULAR ECONOMY

At the deepest layer of the sustainability debate lies the principle of intergenerational justice. Today’s production and consumption choices directly determine not only the current economic structure but also the living standards and resource access of the future. In this respect, the issue turns into a delicate equation between short-term prosperity and long-term social balance.

The economic equivalent of this equation is the circular economy model. Unlike the linear production approach, where resources are consumed and disposed of, this approach—where resources are included in the reproduction process—turns waste from a cost factor into economic value again. Thus, production processes are redefined within closed loops.

The circular economy not only strengthens environmental sustainability but also reinforces economic resilience by increasing resource efficiency. This model offers a strategic area of transformation, especially for economies with high dependence on raw materials.

Green finance instruments form the financial foundation of this structure, scaling up the transformation. Thus, sustainability ceases to be just an environmental goal; it becomes the main axis determining the long-term redesign of the economic system.

THE NEW DEFINITION OF COMPETITION: ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance)

ESG compliance is not just a requirement for companies to comply with regulatory frameworks; it is also a strategic positioning tool that redefines competitiveness. Firms with high sustainability performance establish investor trust more quickly while gaining a significant advantage in accessing finance.

In this new competitive environment, capital is acting through a holistic assessment that considers not only financial returns but also the environmental and social dimensions of risk. This brings about a structural transformation that forces companies toward long-term value creation instead of short-term profitability.

Consumer behavior is another critical factor accelerating this transformation. Today’s consumer shapes their product and service preferences not only based on price but also on the ethical, environmental, and social impacts of production processes. This trend turns sustainability from a cost factor into a strong brand value.

The increase in the quality of corporate governance strengthens companies’ resilience against shocks, increases their crisis management capacity, and supports long-term growth stability. Thus, ESG is not just a reporting standard; it becomes an economic lever that directly generates competitive advantage.

THE PROCESS OF COMPLIANCE WITH THE GREEN DEAL: Risk or Opportunity?

The European Union’s Green Deal is not just an environmental policy; it is also an expression of a new economic order that is reshaping the global trade and production system. The main goal of this order is to build a carbon-neutral economy by 2050 and to transform the entire value chain from production to consumption into a low-carbon structure.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), one of the most critical tools of this transformation, represents a new threshold, especially for export-oriented economies. For Turkey, one of the European Union’s largest trading partners, this process directly redefines the competitive conditions of foreign trade. Therefore, compliance with the Green Deal is no longer a matter of choice; it has become a strategic necessity for the sustainability of exports and access to global markets. It seems inevitable that production structures that do not comply will experience a loss of competitiveness in the medium term.

The Green Deal Action Plan, carried out in Turkey under the coordination of the Ministry of Industry and Technology and the Ministry of Trade to comply with this process, offers an important roadmap supporting the transformation of sectors. Energy efficiency, renewable energy investments, and carbon reduction policies constitute the fundamental building blocks of this process. In this context, the Green Deal stands out as a two-way area of transformation for Turkey that contains both significant risks and strong opportunities if managed correctly.

ACCESS TO FINANCE: The Leverage Point of Transformation

The success of the green transition is largely directly related to the capacity to access finance. In this new era, capital flow is shaped not only by the size of the investment but also by the project’s environmental impact, carbon reduction potential, and sustainability performance.

International and regional funding institutions (the World Bank, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Asian Development Bank, and others) play a decisive role in the financial architecture of the green transition. These institutions support the transformation with long-term and cost-effective financing mechanisms that encourage low-carbon production models.

Green bonds, sustainability-linked loans, and carbon markets have become the primary tools of this new financial ecosystem. These tools create a new financial discipline that directs capital not only through economic returns but also through environmental impact.

In Turkey, mechanisms supporting this transformation through public banks and development institutions are becoming increasingly visible. However, access to these resources, especially for SMEs, is of critical importance for the transformation to gain an inclusive character. Because the true success of the green transition will only be possible by including not just large-scale firms, but the entire production ecosystem in this process.

THE ROLE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS

The real-world equivalent of sustainability policies is largely shaped by the implementation capacity of local governments. Areas such as waste management, transport systems, energy use, and urban planning are critical policy areas where the green transition is directly implemented at the local level. In this context, municipalities are ceasing to be merely administrative structures that provide services and are becoming the founding actors of urban transformation and the low-carbon city model. The ability of local governments to access green finance instruments and effectively transform these resources into investment projects directly determines the sustainability performance of cities.

Smart city applications, renewable energy investments, and eco-friendly transport systems stand out as concrete reflections of this transformation. In particular, infrastructure investments with high energy efficiency and digital management systems both reduce costs and minimize environmental impact. At this point, every step taken at the local scale produces a strategic value that contributes directly to national and global sustainability goals, not just on a city basis. Therefore, local governments constitute the most critical area of implementation for the green transition.

REGIONAL TRANSFORMATION DYNAMICS: A Comparative Reading Through Tekirdağ and Adana

Turkey’s green transition process points to a multi-layered structure shaped by taking into account regional production capacities, sectoral concentrations, and differences in resource use, rather than a uniform economic model. Therefore, the success of the transformation depends on the development of strategies compatible with local economic realities. In this context, Tekirdağ and Adana represent two different but complementary axes of transformation for Turkey.

Tekirdağ is one of the provinces that will feel carbon costs the earliest due to its export-linked industrial structure, organized industrial zones, and high level of integration with European markets. This structure makes the region directly exposed to the effects of the European Green Deal and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Therefore, the main axis of the green transition in Tekirdağ is shaped by decarbonization in industry, energy efficiency, clean production technologies, and the reduction of carbon intensity.

While compliance costs and investment needs stand out as pressure factors in the short term, the transition to low-carbon production capacity has the potential to provide a significant competitive advantage to Tekirdağ’s industry in the medium and long term. Businesses that achieve early compliance will both strengthen their position in the European market and gain an advantage in accessing green finance resources.

Adana, on the other hand, reveals a different transformation dynamic with its hybrid economic structure where agriculture, industry, and energy sectors are shaped together. The strong agricultural production capacity of the Çukurova basin holds significant potential in terms of sustainable agricultural practices and carbon sinks. In contrast, its industrial and energy infrastructure offers a strong foundation for circular economy practices and renewable energy investments.

For this reason, the green transition in Adana is progressing along the axis of water and resource efficiency, climate-resilient agricultural policies, biomass and renewable energy investments, and agriculture-industry integration. However, the ability of this potential to turn into a sustainable advantage depends on the transformation of water management and carbon-intensive production structures in particular.

When these two different structures are evaluated together, a fundamental reality emerges for Turkey: the green transition must be managed not with a single-centered model, but with a multiple strategy that takes regional specificities into account.

CONCLUSION: TURKEY ON THE THRESHOLD OF NEW COMPETITION

The green transition has moved beyond being an environmental policy heading and has transformed into a global competition regime that redefines the entire economic system, from production to finance, and from trade to regional development. In this new order, the decisive factor is not just production volume, but the ability to establish low-carbon, efficient, and sustainable production capacity. When the rapid decarbonization necessitated by Tekirdağ’s industry-intensive structure and the transformation potential based on Adana’s agriculture-industry-energy integration are evaluated together, the picture that emerges is clear: those who manage the green transition process will increase their competitiveness, while those who are late in complying will be pushed out of the system.

In this context, green finance and ESG criteria are not just financial instruments; they are a structural transformation mechanism that reshapes investment, production, and consumption decisions. Sustainability is no longer a parameter outside the economic system, but a central factor that directly determines competitiveness. Actors who can read this transformation in time and manage it strategically will be the winners of the new economic order.

At this point, the green transition has ceased to be a cost factor and has turned into a strong competitive advantage when structured correctly. Countries, cities, and companies that internalize this advantage at an early stage are becoming not only structures that comply, but also actors that determine the direction of the transformation.

Turkey’s green transition process is also situated on a multi-centered structure at this very point. Export-oriented industrial regions like Tekirdağ and regions with agriculture-industry-energy integration like Adana represent different but complementary faces of the same transformation. On one side, there is an industrial ecosystem that faces carbon costs directly and has to rapidly restructure its production model, and on the other, there are regional structures that develop new production models by using their natural resources more efficiently.

The truly critical threshold is to be able to position these different dynamics not as alternatives to each other, but as elements that feed each other. Because the true success of the green transition depends on the ability of production capacity and natural capital to integrate within the same development equation.

In conclusion, Turkey’s field of competition has now become clear: the issue is not just to produce, but to be able to establish a low-carbon, efficient, and sustainable production model. Countries and cities that design this transformation correctly will not only be those that adapt to today’s economic order, but those that shape the economic architecture of the future.