We have not forgotten, we will not forget: The wounds of the February 6 earthquake and lessons for the future

February 6, 2023, was etched into our memories not just as a natural disaster, but as the “disaster of the century” that occurred as a result of negligence, shortcomings, and ignored warnings. The two massive earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş, with magnitudes of 7.6 and 7.7, directly affected approximately 14 million of our citizens across 11 provinces, leaving deep scars. 53,537 lives lost, over 100,000 injured, and millions left homeless… Homes were destroyed, and smiles turned into tears. We still carry this pain in our hearts.

Those who survived were left to cope with immense trauma and anxiety. The cries of thousands of people trapped under the rubble, shouting “Is there anyone who can hear my voice?”, still echo in our ears. But unfortunately, the promises made and the pledges given have still not been sufficiently fulfilled.

That night, I was in the earthquake zone as the Secretary General of the Adana Metropolitan Municipality. Most of my observations, experiences, and conclusions were shaped by the lessons included in this article. The reality of earthquakes was nothing new for this country. Experts had been warning for years: We must be prepared for this disaster. But what was done? Warnings were ignored, rent-oriented urbanization policies continued, and building inspections were inadequate. Urban transformation was shaped more by economic interests than by earthquake safety. Not only were the necessary precautions not taken before the earthquake, but the lack of coordination and inadequacy afterward further magnified the scale of the disaster. Unfortunately, the impact of disasters is forgotten over time. But every time, the fire only burns where it falls.

Provincial Risk Reduction Plans (İRAP)

While we were sleeping on the night of Sunday, February 5, and making plans for the new week, most of us, with few exceptions, did not even imagine, let alone think, that the week would begin with such a disaster. However, many valuable scientists with high ethical values who had long since identified this earthquake risk and shared reports on the matter had pointed out this risk and warned us.

These risks were actually revealed through scenario analyses in the Provincial Risk Reduction Plan (İRAP) reports. For example, the Adana Province Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (İRAP) was prepared in September 2022. Earthquakes are actually a reality of this country and our region, and we need to accept this risk as a fact of our lives.

Disaster Risk Management, unlike crisis management, is an integrated and risk-focused management approach that includes not only post-disaster but also pre-disaster actions and precautions. We tried to manage the process during and after the earthquake together with the authorities. It was very difficult to overcome what happened, but all our citizens from every corner of our country showed the world a tremendous example of social solidarity. From the very first moment the earthquake occurred, we tried to heal the wounds of this disaster together.

Today's modern disaster management understanding encompasses not only the process during the event but also the pre-disaster, during-disaster, and post-disaster phases within the framework of the “Integrated Disaster Management Cycle.” However, as authorized institutions, we unfortunately understood more clearly with the earthquake disaster that we need to be more prepared against disaster risk and that it is important to ensure more effective cooperation and coordination. The inability to effectively implement the Integrated Disaster Management Cycle and the fact that risk reduction activities remained in the background caused great material and moral suffering in our country.

Disaster risk reduction should cover all efforts aimed at preventing and reducing potential losses and damages before disasters or emergencies. However, since the efforts were mostly directed toward the post-disaster period, it caused the losses caused by the disaster to increase. The main goal of disaster risk reduction planning is to create disaster-resilient societies and settlements.

The First Hours: Panic, Chaos, and Lack of Coordination

On the night of the earthquake, millions of people poured into the streets in panic. There were those trapped under the rubble of collapsed buildings. But the most painful part was that the state and relevant institutions were unprepared for this massive disaster. Despite being foreseen in the İRAP reports, in practice, the necessary interventions could not be carried out in full cooperation and coordination on time.

Search and rescue teams could not be delivered to the region on time, AFAD and other official institutions could not organize, and due to the lack of sufficient equipment and personnel, at many debris sites, people tried to save their relatives with their own hands. People under the rubble waited for hours and days for help, and many lost their lives because they could not be intervened in time.

So, while it has been said for years that we are an "earthquake country," why was there still such a huge lack of coordination? Where were the earthquake taxes used? Why was there such inadequacy in disaster management? Why do natural events turn into disasters? Actually, everything is man-made… It is we who destroy nature by ignoring its rules, disrupt the order, and eventually are negatively affected by what we have done ourselves, while also narrowing the living space of other living beings and failing to learn lessons from this.

Damage Assessment and Delayed Interventions

According to the damage assessment studies conducted in the cities affected by the earthquake, a significant portion of the buildings in the cities sustained damage at various levels. However, the real problem was that it was already known for years that a large portion of these buildings were not earthquake-resistant.

Irregularities in construction processes, lack of inspections, and uncontrolled licensing showed that there was a systematic distortion under every collapsed building. Inspections conducted before the earthquake were insufficient, and engineering standards were ignored. And unfortunately, innocent people paid the price for these mistakes.

Macroeconomic Impact Analysis of the Earthquake

In the earthquake, we lost our very important values that cannot be compensated, and our human capital that cannot be measured materially. In addition to the loss of human capital, different opinions were shared regarding the economic losses caused by the earthquake and their costs. However, it is worth mentioning a few reports based on scientific methods, data, and assumptions that I have also examined in detail:

In the “2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Disaster Preliminary Assessment Report” prepared by TÜRKONFED on 10.02.2023; the loss of life in the Marmara Earthquake was calculated as 18,373 people, and the financial damage was calculated as 17.1 billion dollars with 1999 data. Again, according to the TÜRKONFED report, if the Marmara Earthquake had occurred in 2021, it was estimated that it would have caused 26,451 deaths and 51.1 billion dollars in financial damage. Using the methodology used for the Marmara Earthquake data, the Kahramanmaraş Earthquake was calculated with 2021 dollar data to have caused 72,663 deaths and 84.1 billion dollars in financial damage.

In the report published by the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) regarding the impact of the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquake disaster on the national economy, it was estimated that economic growth would be 1.2 points lower than predicted before the earthquake. Furthermore, while a 5-year development plan was envisioned for the region in the report, the amount required for this development was calculated as 150 billion dollars. The study shows that the damage and destruction caused by the earthquake affected approximately 40 percent of the building stock in the 11 provinces. The 650 thousand independent units estimated to be heavily damaged or destroyed are approximately 7 times the number of residences that received occupancy permits in the earthquake region in 2022. Considering the 1.5 million independent units estimated to have sustained light and moderate damage in the earthquake, along with the ongoing housing stock need across Turkey, it is expected that the damage caused by the earthquake can be compensated in 5 years. According to the 5-year estimated financing prepared by TEPAV for earthquake-related expenses with 2023 prices, a total cost of 148 billion dollars is foreseen between 2023-2027, consisting of 88 billion dollars in construction costs, 35 billion dollars in property losses, 5 billion dollars in temporary housing expenses, 14 billion dollars in household support, and 6 billion dollars in employment support.

According to the 2023 Kahramanmaraş and Hatay Earthquakes Report published by the Presidency of Strategy and Budget of the Republic of Turkey, the total cost of the earthquake was estimated at approximately 104 billion dollars. While the highest costs were estimated as housing damage (57 billion dollars), public sector damage (13 billion dollars), private sector damage (12 billion dollars), GNP output loss (6.9 billion dollars), and emergency expenditure (6.8 billion dollars) respectively, it was estimated that the total cost corresponds to approximately 10% of the GNP.

Psychological and Social Support: Ignored Wounds

The earthquake did not only cause physical destruction; it also opened deep psychological wounds. Tens of thousands of people lost their families, homes, and pasts. Children had to grow up in the midst of a great trauma.

However, there was also an inadequacy in psychosocial support services. While people experienced great difficulties in terms of both housing and health services, the need for mental support was often pushed to the background. Instead of providing therapy and counseling services for traumatized people, the problems of earthquake survivors were ignored.

Lessons to be Learned for the Future

This great disaster showed us once again that we must act in the light of science and reason. However, unfortunately, just as lessons were not learned from past disasters, the steps that needed to be taken after this earthquake were not taken quickly and effectively enough. To avoid experiencing similar pain in the future, it is necessary to develop useful and applicable policies that also take into account the following points, which I have also observed in the field, by learning from the past:

• Earthquake-resistant urbanization policies should be developed. It should be ensured that new buildings undergo strict inspections, soil surveys should be conducted, and old building stocks should be reinforced.
• Disaster management systems should be strengthened. The capacity of AFAD and other relevant institutions should be increased, and necessary arrangements should be made to intervene quickly in times of crisis.
• Transparent disaster fund management should be ensured. Funds collected through various methods and tools at international, national, and local levels should truly be used for disaster management and the resilience of cities. The public should be informed about where earthquake taxes are spent.
• Social solidarity should be supported, and the way for civil initiatives should be cleared. During the earthquake process, the solidarity power of the public was more effective than many official institutions. Non-governmental organizations and volunteer groups should be more integrated into disaster management processes.
• Disaster management should be handled with a multi-dimensional perspective (logistics dimension, engineering dimension, urbanism and architectural dimension, social dimension, health dimension, economic dimension, and administrative and legal dimension, etc.) with an integrated and risk-focused management approach that includes not only post-disaster but also pre-disaster actions and precautions.
• The fact that documentation alone is not enough, that coordination and cooperation play a critical role, that routine and up-to-date drills are essential, the necessity of reviewing communication tools, the need to turn to alternative tools, strengthening logistics networks, ensuring that data about cities and disasters are up-to-date, accurate, and processable, preventing disinformation, creating intervention areas for optimum population, developing comprehensive disaster master plans for our cities... these issues should be taken into account, and process and risk analyses should be carried out and followed dynamically.

It is essential for central and local governments to work together to reduce and prevent disaster risks. Central and local governments are not opposites, rivals, or alternatives to each other, but complements. Such an understanding will minimize risks and ensure that processes are carried out more effectively. Learning from this event and taking action is the responsibility of every individual, not just administrators.

We Have Not Forgotten, We Will Not Forget!

The February 6 earthquake was not just a natural event, but also a reflection of a system crisis. We cannot prevent earthquakes, but it is in our hands to prevent the earthquake from turning into a disaster. Today, as we commemorate the thousands of people we lost, we must be more conscious, more sensitive, and more determined to avoid experiencing similar pain in the future. As institutions and organizations that guide and govern society, we must make decisions without deviating from the path of science, reason, and conscience, thinking of future generations! We must not forget that every decision we fail to make or make incorrectly today can cause great harm to future generations, and that we can lose our very important values, our human capital that cannot be measured materially.

So that February 6ths are not experienced again, learning from these great pains we have experienced, projects that will make our cities safer and more resilient under the guidance of technology and science should be among our priorities. We must learn to live with earthquakes and make our building stocks earthquake-resistant. With the measures to be taken against earthquake risk, we can prevent tragedies that may occur in the future.

However, the scale of the destruction experienced was a result of not only nature but also systematic errors, lack of planning, and lack of supervision. As a result of the disaster of the century we experienced exactly 2 years ago, nothing has ever been the same for our people. Unfortunately, the most important problem of the earthquake region is still housing.

A resilient city is not a city that is not exposed to any crisis or risk, but a city that is prepared for and can produce rational solutions in the face of situations that arise unexpectedly for whatever reason.

I once again wish God's mercy upon those who lost their lives in the February 6 Earthquake, condolences to their relatives, a speedy recovery to those who were injured and are still in the healing process, and patience to their families and loved ones. May God not let our country and our nation experience such a disaster again.

Let's Hope for the Best But Be Prepared for the Worst!