Our neighbor with whom we share a 911-kilometer border...

Following the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, one of the most emphasized discourses within the Turkish state apparatus was the length of the border shared with Syria, and therefore, that Turkey could not remain indifferent to this war. This discourse deepened even further in 2016 and beyond, when Turkey crossed the border. Now, we are going through a period where it is unknown to what extent this discourse will hold true in practice...

As of December 2024, the Assad family's rule of over half a century collapsed at a speed that no one could quite comprehend, after 13 years of bloody civil war, but seemingly after a ten-day process. Despite the existence of UN Security Council resolutions referring to Syria's sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, what the 911 kilometers mean in theory and practice has become a matter of curiosity for us.

It is essential to ask some meaningful questions. For instance, Assad is gone, and he was unable to utilize any of the opportunities given to him. Still, he was luckier than most dictators; he was able to seek asylum in Moscow with his family. That is not how it ends for most, after all. But will his departure make Syria democratic and stable? Probably not. HTS, which is being rebranded in Western media—and which was recognized as a terrorist organization by many countries, including Turkey—is a jihadist organization. So, even though there is an emphasis on the possibility of establishing a structure that includes all segments, the likelihood of this happening is not very high. I suppose the moderation of HTS highlighted in the media points to the fact that the regime to be established in Syria will be more moderate compared to the Taliban. This “relative” moderation could be prone to dynamics of trouble and conflict among different masses within Syria and among the groups under the HTS umbrella. For Turkey, this certainly does not correspond to a different status quo, but it could bring along some new risks.

Another question is, of course, what kind of political position the Kurds, who are expanding their sphere of influence, will have. Especially for Turkey. The Kurdish factor has been Turkey's primary issue in Syria since 2015. In fact, this stood as one of the significant problems between Turkey and the US. Now, as the future of Syria is being redefined, it is even more meaningful than before. Frankly, I am curious about how the Kurds' relations and negotiations with HTS will develop in the near future and what their political position within Syria will be. While on the subject of Kurds, a paragraph should also be opened for Israel.

The Syrian Civil War was both a global and regional issue from its inception. The speed of Assad's overthrow is remarkable, but its timing is not so much, in terms of reflecting the change in the region. Here, we also see Israel's projection in the region. This also points to Iraq and Iran in the coming periods... On the other hand, Assad's fall resulted in Israel advancing into the buffer zone between the Golan Heights, which it keeps under occupation, and Syria. Israel cites the “uncertainty of what lies beyond the border” as the reason for both its advance into the buffer zone and its strikes on many facilities in Syria on the same day.

However, I think everyone agrees that this could also be permanent. It seems that Israel will also support the Kurds in the north of the country in the coming period. Because Kurds are seen as “natural allies.” As far as I have been able to examine, there has also been an increase in the number of news reports published in the Israeli press regarding the future of the Kurds in recent days.

All of these are question marks for Turkey, but when we leave regional politics aside, the issue that the Turkish public is most curious about is what will happen to the Syrians under “temporary” protection. News reports in the media yesterday and today do point to a density at the borders, but the return of “hundreds” of people to Syria, I believe, does not provide us with a forecast regarding the millions. Moreover, the migration and immigrant policies implemented by Turkey are not just aimed at Syrians. I think our greatest need, which has been ongoing for over a decade in this regard, is transparency and honesty.

Epilogue: The future of Syria is uncertain, and in my opinion, recurring conflicts are likely. However, if there is one thing that is clear, it is this: When we look back decades from now, 2011 will always appear as one of the great breaking points for both the region and us...