Expectations in Syria

The most important issue we have been talking about since December is, naturally, Syria... It has been more than two weeks since the fall of Assad. While everyone continues to debate who won and who lost, in my opinion, there is only one result that has emerged in these two weeks: Uncertainty.

There is an air of hope everywhere, but the expectations of different communities and countries for the Syria that will emerge are quite different from one another. The extent to which these expectations can be melted into the same pot remains a matter of curiosity.

For every day, we see many contradictory reports regarding Syria. One day we are talking about the democratization of HTS with the image of a Christmas tree in Damascus, and the next day we read that jihadist groups have burned a similar tree in Hama.

A similar situation applies to the interests and expectations of countries. For example, Turkey and Israel. The backbone of the policy Turkey has pursued since 2015/2016 was the Kurds in Syria.

Even if it is not talked about much today due to the current conjuncture, it was precisely for this reason that Turkey shifted its Syria policy; in clearer terms, a policy that evolved from regime change to border security came to the fore.

Today, we are facing a different Syria. Turkey also appears to have expanded its sphere of influence in this “new” Syria through the HTS administration.

However, its greatest emphasis remains on the territorial integrity of Syria. Yet, while Turkey wants the SDF forces supported by the US to lay down their arms, many different groups in Israel, which is expanding its occupation in Syria, state that the Kurds should be supported with weapons and money—just as the US did.

Israel views northern Syria as strategically as it does the south. It has even found another “natural ally” in this regard, similar to Southern Cyprus. We will see whether the Syrian Kurds pave the way for other alignments in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Speaking of Syria's territorial integrity, last week some videos and reports were circulated in the Israeli and Western press claiming that some Druze settlements in the villages around the Golan want to join Israel.

As I mentioned in my previous article, I believe the map of our “neighbor with whom we share a 911 km border” in the coming years is unknown. Despite the existence of UN Security Council resolutions...

On the other hand, the videos circulating about Druze villages, even if speculative, point to one thing: the anxious wait of minorities in Syria. Many ethnic and religious groups have an expectation and a need for a pluralistic and democratic Syria. Likewise, we see that many women have a desire not only to avoid being governed by Sharia law but also to actively participate in politics. We can understand this from interviews with women and from women's protest demonstrations.

After these protests, the HTS administration sent a somewhat positive message by appointing Ayşe El-Dibs, who is also a Turkish citizen, as the Head of the Women's Affairs Office. However, despite this message, and even if Golani trims his beard and wears a tie, it does not seem as though he can meet all these expectations.

For there is an ideological and social foundation upon which he also leans. Undoubtedly, Syria, by virtue of its sociological structure, will not become a new Afghanistan.

However, I do not think that the ex-jihadist cadres will overcome or want to overcome the foundation they rely on, even if they stretch it in some way. Unfortunately, the Middle East is not a place where only a complex sociological structure can determine the political climate toward democratization. If that were the case, I don't think this Iran would have emerged from the 1979 revolution.

However, I must also say that despite the enthusiasm experienced by many press and media organizations, those with their feet most firmly on the ground are the Syrians themselves.

For in the interviews I read, many people from different cities were referring to uncertainty and, at the same time, anxiety. I hope that when this uncertainty ends, this people, who have been struggling with a civil war for 13 years, will not be squeezed into the dichotomy of “no administration can be worse than Assad” or “it can.”

It seems we will be talking more about Turkey's expectations in the coming days and months...