What happened in the TRNC? What might happen in Cyprus?

Following the elections held in the TRNC on October 19, 2025, Tufan Erhürman, the candidate of the CTP (Republican Turkish Party), was elected president. Erhürman, born in 1970, is a politician who has also worked as an academic in the field of law…

During his time in active politics, he has highlighted issues such as transparency and public reform, and has advocated for a federation-based solution to the Cyprus issue. Given his political experience, the promises he made before the 2025 election did not contain many surprises. While Erhürman made promises regarding the fight against corruption and economic reform at home, he stated that the two-state solution rhetoric of the current (we can now say former) President Ersin Tatar has further isolated the Turkish Cypriots, and therefore, it is necessary to return to the negotiating table on the basis of a federation. And he was elected with over 62 percent of the vote against Tatar's 35.5 percent. 

What exactly happened in the TRNC? 

Tatar's loss is not an ordinary loss, as he lost by a wide margin despite the support of the ruling bloc in Turkey. In short, I do not agree at all with the thesis that “the AKP secretly wanted Erhürman to win anyway.” It is clear that Turkish Cypriots thought that Tatar could not offer a solution to the interventions in politics, economic problems, the betting gangs/barons we have been talking about more and more, the lack of meritocracy they feel has intensified in the same way, and many other things. 

What was Turkey's reaction to this result in the TRNC? 

Despite its clear support for Tatar, the AKP stated that it respected the result with a statement that maintained moderation. Considering that Turkey's Cyprus policy has changed according to the requirements of the period since 2002, it would not be a surprise to me if it returned to the federation rhetoric. After all, in these 23 years, we have seen both the Annan Plan and the two-state solution being defended. I think we are going through a period where Turkey wants to establish warm relations with the West again. Negotiations on the basis of a federation, even if they do not yield results, could turn into a tool for softening, or it might be desired that they do so. 

The CHP congratulated Erhürman. The CHP and the CTP are already sister parties. The emphasis of the statements made by the CHP was mostly on the AKP's interference with the candidate and the democratic struggle. In this period when elected mayors in Turkey are in prison, I find the emphasis on national will to be expected.

I think the harshest statement came from MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli. What should be particularly noted from Turkey's perspective was the dissatisfaction with the voter turnout, which was over 64 percent. It was said that “the fate of Turkish Cypriotism cannot be represented with this turnout,” but it was forgotten that the first-round turnout of the 2020 election was 58.5 percent and the second-round turnout was 67 percent. (Let the 2015 elections be a bonus: 62 percent in the first round, 64 percent in the second). If they represent it, I think this does too. As for his statement regarding annexation to Turkey, I don't think he is the first person to bring this idea to mind. Since it hasn't been done until today, I assume that everyone interested in politics knows that joining a country will not happen just by taking a decision in parliament, and that some other dynamics must also mature. (For those who don't know, I recommend they review the Hatay issue, even though it is a very different example from Cyprus).

What will happen in Cyprus? 

My answer to this question is clear: Nothing will happen. I do not think there will be any solution to this issue, whether on a federative basis or not. The negotiation process may restart. In fact, when it comes to the Cyprus issue, this is what has been happening for over 70 years: Diplomacy tables that are set up, dismantled, and then set up again. There is a concept I love to use: A graveyard of diplomats. I think this is the concept that best defines the Cyprus negotiations. Besides, it is almost impossible for Turkey to withdraw the Turkish soldiers from the island in the current geopolitics. I don't think it would be wise either. 

Some very sharp comments were made in Turkey yesterday regarding the election results. I do not think that the TRNC has declared its independence from Turkey as some claim, nor do I think there will be a major conflict between the new president and Ankara. Firstly, as I wrote above, I assume that Ankara could evaluate this as a tool for change in its own diplomacy, and secondly, that any will elected in Cyprus knows that politically opposing Ankara completely would weaken itself in the international arena. Moreover, I would like to emphasize that the TRNC - with its government and nation - is only one of the determining factors of the Cyprus issue. If it were not so, the Annan Plan would have been accepted by the votes cast by the Turkish Cypriots, right? 

I don't like making predictions. But I must end by stating that its political history has made Cyprus a case that makes it easy to make predictions…