Breathing the smoke of two fires: A new equation for Turkey

On April 23, 2026, the world witnessed the simultaneous flaring up of two fires that had been burning for months. The mines in the Strait of Hormuz had been there for months, but for the first time, the Pentagon stated, "it will take six months to clear them." [1]

The war in the north of the Black Sea had already entered its fourth year, but for the first time, there was talk that oil could flow through the Druzhba pipeline, and this possibility was resolving an EU crisis.[2]

The fires were not just lit; they have jumped to a new phase. And Turkey is right in the middle, breathing the rising smoke of both.

THE PENTAGON'S CONFESSION BEHIND CLOSED DOORS

Information leaked from Washington on April 23 revealed that things are much more serious than they appear. In a closed session held by the Pentagon for the House Armed Services Committee, it was admitted that the mine-clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz could take six months. [1] Moreover, officials added that it is highly unlikely for such an operation to begin before the conflicts end. [3]

The translation of this confession in the markets is clear: The bottleneck in the global energy corridor could last until the end of the year. In the words of Richard Nephew, an Iran expert at Columbia University, "the mere presence of mines is enough to prevent insurance companies and ship captains from using that route."

Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell denied the news, stating, "It is impossible for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for six months."[3] However, the damage had already been recorded.

KILLING TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE: RUSSIA'S UNEXPECTED GAIN

While tensions rose in Hormuz, Moscow quietly filled its coffers. The temporary sanctions waiver granted by the US for Russian oil to curb oil prices was terminated on April 11. However, according to Senate Democrats, Russia and its collaborators generated approximately 150 million dollars per day in additional revenue during this process, totaling over 4 billion dollars. [4]

Then, on April 21, a bitter irony occurred. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that the Druzhba oil pipeline, which was damaged by Russian attacks in January, had been repaired and that oil flow to Hungary and Slovakia could resume. [2] Yes, you read that correctly: Ukraine agreed to let Russian oil, which fills the coffers of the army attacking it, pass through its territory. This was a price a country barely standing had to pay to unlock a vital financial aid package. [5] Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's veto was withdrawn, and the EU's 90 billion euro loan package was approved. [6] Peace and war met in the same sentence; and what a meeting it was.

DOUBLE REVISION FOR TURKEY FROM THE IMF

The reflection of these geopolitical earthquakes on the Turkish economy was not delayed. In its April 2026 World Economic Outlook report, the IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Turkey by 0.8 points to 3.4%. The 2027 forecast was also revised from 4.1% to 3.5%. [7] The reason is clear: Oil hovering above 100 dollars per barrel is inflating the import bill, and energy costs are suppressing production.

On the inflation front, the picture is even more striking. The IMF raised its 2026 annual inflation forecast to 28.6%. The current account deficit is expected to reach 2.8% of GDP. [7] In short, every mine in Hormuz is reflected on every price tag in Turkey.

FOOTSTEPS OF A NEW ERA IN HORMUZ

Another piece of news from Tehran on April 23 is of a nature that could change the DNA of global trade. Iran announced that it had collected its first transit fee from a commercial vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. [8] Tehran frames this fee as compensation for the damage caused to Iran by US and Israeli military operations. According to a BBC analysis, this move means a "fundamental change in the global maritime trade model" [9] For energy-importing countries like Turkey, this means a permanent increase in costs.

TURKEY'S STRATEGIC POSITION BETWEEN TWO WARS

Strategic opportunities are also emerging among the bad news. First, the Pentagon sitting down with General Motors, Ford, and GE Aerospace to replenish ammunition stocks is a harbinger of a new era in the defense supply chain. [10] For mid-sized suppliers in the Turkish defense industry, this is a window where they can grow with the advantage of being a NATO ally.

Second, the possibility of Hormuz remaining closed for months moves Turkey to a more strategic position as an alternative energy corridor. [11]

In the new European energy architecture shaped by the opening of the Druzhba line and Hungary's willingness to compromise, Turkey's value as a logistics hub is increasing. [2]

The third lies in the Black Sea equation. As a NATO country that controls passage through the straits under the Montreux Convention, Turkey is already pursuing a critical balance policy in the Ukraine war. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's statement in January that "Turkey is ready to take responsibility for the maritime security mission in the Black Sea" indicates that this role will be consolidated in the post-war order as well. [12] Washington's attention being locked on Iran makes this balance policy that Turkey is already conducting in the Black Sea even more important.[13]

THE BIG PICTURE

The reflection of Turkey in the mirror shattered on April 23 is clear: On one side, the inflation pressure triggered by energy costs and revised growth figures; on the other, strategic opportunities ranging from the defense industry to logistics. The Turkish economy, looking into this mirror, needs to show the resilience to finance an energy crisis that could last six months. If the answer is positive, the remainder of 2026 can be written in the profit column rather than the loss column.

References

[1] “Clearing Hormuz Strait mines could take six months, Pentagon says,” Khaleej Times, April 23, 2026, https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/clearing-hormuz-strait-mines-could-take-six-months-pentagon-says.

[2] “Ukraine has repaired Druzhba pipeline, Zelenskyy says,” Politico, April 21, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-repair-druzhba-pipeline-volodymyr-zelenskyy/.

[3] “Pentagon warns Hormuz mine clearance could take months: report,” Newswatch, April 22, 2026, https://www.newswatch.com.ng/pentagon-warns-hormuz-mine-clearance-could-take-months-report/.

[4] “US to Restore Sanctions on Russian Oil as Iran Waiver Also Set to Expire,” Kyiv Post, April 14, 2026, https://www.kyivpost.com/amp/post/73941.

[5] “Druzhba oil flows to Slovakia and Hungary after Ukraine war standoff,” The Star, April 23, 2026, https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/04/23/druzhba-oil-flows-to-slovakia-and-hungary-after-ukraine-war-standoff.

[6] “EU clears way to free €90bn loan to fund Ukraine as block lifted,” Irish Independent, April 23, 2026, https://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/eu-clears-way-to-free-90bn-loan-to-fund-ukraine-as-block-lifted/a437693372.html.

[7] “The IMF Thinks Turkey's Growth Will Cool Into 2027,” Finimize, April 13, 2026, https://finimize.com/content/the-imf-thinks-turkeys-growth-will-cool-into-2027.

[8] “Iran receives first payment from commercial vessel transiting Strait of Hormuz,” News On AIR, April 23, 2026, https://www.newsonair.gov.in/iran-receives-first-payment-from-commercial-vessel-transiting-strait-of-hormuz/.

[9] “Iran's Hormuz Plan Challenges Global Shipping Rules,” Athens Times, April 22, 2026, https://athens-times.com/bbc-analysis-tehran-seeks-to-rewrite-global-shipping-rules-in-strait-of-hormuz/.

[10] “Pentagon taps US carmakers for weapons production WSJ,” Newswatch, April 16, 2026, https://www.newswatch.com.ng/pentagon-taps-us-carmakers-for-weapons-production-wsj/.

[11] “Pentagon expects it will take six months to clear mines from Hormuz Strait — media,” TASS, April 22, 2026, https://tass.com/world/2121209.

[12] “Security agreement will be broader than peace between Ukraine and Russia – Turkish FM,” Ukrinform, January 15, 2026, https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3991520-security-agreement-will-be-broader-than-peace-between-ukraine-and-russia-turkish-fm.html.

[13] “Turkey edges closer to leading Black Sea mission under Ukraine security guarantees,” Middle East Eye, January 6, 2026, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-edges-closer-leading-black-sea-mission-ukraine-security-guarantees.