Disaster Scenarios Breed Laziness; We Are Preparing for Failure

I have tried to draw your attention to the mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the fire at the Druzhba pipeline, and the inevitability of being prepared for every possibility. The risks are real, and the concerns are valid. Now, I want to ask a different question: Could all these legitimate concerns be unknowingly preparing us for failure? Could focusing on disaster scenarios eventually paralyze us, replacing proactive measures with passive waiting, and turning preparation for every possibility into waiting for every possibility, thereby silently pushing us toward failure?

SEEING RISKS IS NOT ENOUGH

It is a fact that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Oil prices are high. An energy crisis is underway. But the conversation has always been about these facts getting even worse. Oil exceeding 120 dollars, the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for months, trade coming to a complete halt...

Yet, what is never discussed is the possibility of these disasters coming to an end. Human nature focuses much more on bad news than good news. The paradox is this: If we prepare for an existing crisis to deepen while becoming blind to the possibility of the crisis ending, and if all energy and capital are shaped according to "worse-case" scenarios, doesn't it become harder to adapt to normalization?

WHAT IF HORMUZ OPENS TOMORROW?

Is anyone asking this question? No. Because no one is prepared for it. Currently, all supply chains, all financial plans, and all inventory strategies are built on the assumption that "Hormuz will remain closed." But what if this assumption collapses? When that day comes, there will be those left with high-cost inventories, those who missed the market, and those who fell behind their competitors. This is the trap of disaster scenarios: They prepare you in such a way that you become most vulnerable at the very moment of recovery.

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PREPAREDNESS AND COWARDICE

Last week, I wrote, "died just in time, live just in case." This is true. However, a warning is necessary: Preparing for every possibility is not the same as fearing every possibility. The right approach is to maintain strategic reserves, identify alternative routes, and price in the risk premium. The wrong approach is to tie up all capital in inventory, abandon main routes, and withdraw from the market. Today, many companies are preparing for so many scenarios that they cannot take action in any of them. Boards of directors are forgetting growth scenarios while discussing mine scenarios, pipeline scenarios, and bottleneck scenarios.

LAZY MINDS

The most insidious effect of disaster scenarios is that they make minds lazy. When people say, "A crisis is coming, we can't do anything anyway," they are avoiding responsibility. When they say, "Markets are uncertain, let's not invest," innovation is shelved. When they say, "Anything can happen at any moment," strategic planning ends. Most dangerously: This laziness is labeled as "precaution." Yet, true precaution is not just about preparing for a bad day. True precaution is having the flexibility to seize the opportunity when a good day arrives.

PRICE IN OPTIMISM AS WELL

The risks are known. Now it is time to take a step forward. Prepare for the worst-case scenario, but price in the best-case scenario as well. What to do if the mines are cleared, if Hormuz opens, or if oil prices drop should be planned now. If things go south, this plan can at most be shelved, but at least you will have it ready. Of course, strategic reserves should be reviewed. The line between stocking up for every possibility and stocking up out of fear of every possibility must be clearly distinguished. Excess inventory is dead capital, and dead capital is a missed opportunity. Panic must be abandoned, and action must be taken. Uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction; it is a reason to be flexible. Small steps should be taken, tested, learned from, and corrected. Most importantly, optimistic scenarios should also be put on the table. Someone on the board of directors should be given this task: Ask, "What if everything goes right?" The answer to that question is what will save you from laziness.

SEEING THE LIGHT

Disaster scenarios are useful in pitch darkness. However, they should not be your only compass. Because if you only look into the darkness, you cannot see the light. The risks are real. Being prepared is essential. Precautions for every possibility are mandatory. But remember: The thing that will truly sink you is not a crisis that doesn't happen, but an opportunity you fail to see. Congratulations, you have been preparing for failure until now. Now it is time to prepare for winning.