Access to car keys has become more difficult

The automotive sector in Turkey closed 2025 with strong sales and export figures. At first glance, the picture still looks vibrant. However, as the first quarter of 2026 draws to a close, the sector's dynamics have changed significantly. The fundamental question is no longer 'is there demand?' There is demand. And it is strong. The real question is: Can this demand be converted into purchases?

Today, the determining factor in the automobile market is access. Data from the first months of the year clearly show this. In February, sales contracted by 8.21 percent. The total for the first two months, at 130 thousand 831 units, remained slightly below last year's figures. The market is still alive, but it is losing momentum. For March, the expectation is in the 100 thousand unit band. This represents a contraction of approximately 13 percent compared to the same period last year and points to the weakest March performance in the last four years. The fact that the decline, which began in February, is intensifying in March seems likely to directly affect the first-quarter results as well.

THIS SLOWDOWN IS NO COINCIDENCE

There is serious unease in the market. The ongoing war environment around us and rising oil prices are directly affecting consumer behavior. We must also not forget the calendar effect. The fact that a large part of March coincided with the Ramadan period caused the already slowing demand to hit the brakes even harder. However, explaining the picture with only these headings is not enough. The real breakdown is happening on the financing front.

For many years, automobile demand in Turkey was sustained by the income-credit balance. Even if income did not increase, demand could remain vibrant through credit. In periods when interest rates were low and maturities were long, consumers could tolerate price increases. The automobile continued to be an accessible product, even if it became more difficult. Today, this balance has been disrupted.

Access to credit is limited, interest rates are high, and maturities are tight. The banking system's risk appetite is low. Consumers, on the other hand, are struggling with cash. As a result, demand is not disappearing, but it is being put on hold. People want to buy cars, but they are forced to postpone their purchasing decisions. At this point, a new reality is emerging in the automotive market:

There is demand, but it cannot be financed.

When prices are added to this picture, the squeeze deepens even further. In Turkey, new car prices have not only increased but have also crossed psychological thresholds. Vehicles that were defined as entry-level segments until a few years ago are now well over 1 million TL. The mid-segment has moved beyond the reach of the masses. However, a critical distinction must be made here: The problem is not just price.

If financing channels were working, high prices could still be balanced to a certain extent. The Turkish automotive market has experienced this many times. The factor that makes a difference today is that both price increases and access to financing have deteriorated simultaneously. In other words, the consumer is both facing a more expensive product and lacks the tools that would enable them to purchase that product.

At this very point, there is another noteworthy development: the limited impact of interventions made on the policy side. The regulation regarding 'SCT-free vehicles for retirees' that recently came to the agenda had raised expectations. However, the fact that the implementation was limited only to retired farmers and covered a very narrow group of models did not create the expected effect. In short, a step expected to give the market a breather remained a limited regulation; the mountain labored and brought forth a mouse.

TECHNOLOGY IS ACCELERATING, ACCESS IS LAGGING BEHIND

The other major area of transformation for the sector is electric vehicles. As of 2026, the Turkish market is meeting many new electric models. Global manufacturers see Turkey as a strategic growth area. The aggressive entry of Chinese brands, Europe's transformation investments, and domestic production moves are all on the field at the same time. In other words, there is no problem on the product side. On the contrary, there is the widest model variety in history. Technology is advancing rapidly. Battery, software, and charging infrastructure are developing. However, this transformation does not solve the fundamental problem.

Although electric vehicles theoretically offer lower usage costs, the initial purchase cost is still high. Moreover, access to these vehicles is also dependent on the same financing conditions. Therefore, the electric transformation does not eliminate the access problem; on the contrary, it makes it more visible.

In the final analysis; the sector is not struggling to produce products. Brands are not struggling to bring in models. Technology is advancing without slowing down. However, the consumer cannot keep up with the speed of this transformation. For this reason, reading the current situation in the automotive sector as a 'demand contraction' would be incomplete. What is actually happening is a more structural breakdown: an access crisis.

If this crisis becomes permanent, the market's audience will shrink. The automobile will cease to be a necessity for the masses and will turn into a product that only a certain income group can access. And this means a new balance for the sector: fewer buyers, higher prices, and more intense competition.

The automotive sector in Turkey is moving within a paradox. On one side, there is an accelerating technological transformation, and on the other, a shrinking access area. And today, the real question is: Who will be able to reach the keys to these vehicles?