The silent construction site: BYD Manisa

The electric vehicle factory investment by the China-based company BYD, which was announced to the public in the summer of 2024 as a major industrial move, has not turned into visible progress on the ground despite 1.5 years having passed.

The announced framework was ambitious: serial production in 2026, a billion-dollar investment, production capacity for hundreds of thousands of vehicles, and promises of employment and an R&D center. However, at the point reached today, the distance between the actual progress of the investment and the goals announced to the public is striking.

In July 2024, approximately 160 hectares of land were allocated for the BYD factory in the Manisa Organized Industrial Zone. During the same period, BYD was exempted from additional customs duties and extra financial obligations imposed on Chinese-origin electric vehicles in exchange for its investment commitment. This regulation was defended with the goal of attracting direct production investment to Turkey. However, while no significant construction activity has begun on the land in Manisa in the time that has passed, BYD's automobile imports to Turkey have continued.

This balance lies at the heart of the debate: while the investment has not yet materialized on the ground, how and with what criteria the tax advantages provided are being audited remains unclear.

The incentives are in place, but there are still question marks on the ground.

In recent weeks, the Ministry of Trade denied allegations that "BYD's imports were halted on the grounds that it had not started factory construction." Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat stated that there is no general import ban on BYD at customs and that some disruptions may have stemmed from technical processes related to quota overruns and collateral obligations. He also emphasized that providing a letter of guarantee is mandatory for the incentives provided under tax exemptions.

Why does the debate continue?

Because the issue is not just about whether vehicles are being held at customs; it is about how the incentive-obligation relationship works on the ground. While BYD has not initiated any significant construction activity on the investment site in Manisa that has been reflected to the public, it has continued to import vehicles into the Turkish market.

In the case of Turkey, BYD;

• Has not shared a detailed and binding plan regarding the project schedule with the public.

• Has not published regular and verifiable reports on which stage the construction process is in.

• Has not linked local supply, employment, and R&D targets to measurable indicators.

Despite all this, the incentive mechanism has technically continued to function. This picture has reopened the debate in the public eye not only on the investment performance of a single company but also on the criteria by which large-scale industrial incentives are monitored in Turkey. Questions regarding when and at what stage investment promises become binding, at what point incentives can be revoked, and how the public audits this process have become more visible through the BYD example.

Another element keeping this debate alive is the different approach BYD follows in its investment schedule in Europe. As part of its production strategy for the European Union market, the company has actually started the construction process for the factory to be established in Hungary and has tied the project to a concrete schedule. There is no similar progress schedule shared with the public regarding the investment process in Turkey. This asymmetric investment pace followed by the same company in different geographies increases question marks regarding the implementation and binding nature of incentive models. This situation suggests that investments are shaped not only by local incentives but also by commercial and political relations established with the EU. The silent construction site in Manisa points not only to the delay of an investment but also to the uncertainty on the table.

Is a more transparent model possible?

The BYD file offers a concrete example that tests Turkey's industrial policy in the age of electric vehicles. For incentives to truly target production;

• Tax exemptions should be phased and tied to a schedule,

• Clear milestones should be defined for all stages of the project; construction, the first vehicle rolling off the line, serial production, resources, and employment,

• The progress of the project should be announced to the public with regular reports,

• Incentives should be automatically suspended in case of delay.

This approach could create a more predictable and accountable framework not only for BYD but for all of Turkey's large-scale industrial investments. The ultimate issue lies in being able to establish a sustainable balance between attracting investment and protecting public resources. The silent construction site in Manisa raises the question of how clearly the incentive-obligation balance is established, rather than just the delay of an investment. The real issue is knotted exactly here.