TOGG is in second place: But what comes next?

The 2025 electric vehicle sales data reveals an interesting picture in Turkey. China's BYD is in first place with 45,500 units. It is followed by TOGG with 39,000 units. In third place is the Tesla Model Y with 31,500 units.

When we look at the sales figures, the picture looks good for our domestic and national car: TOGG is right behind BYD, one of the world's most aggressive automotive manufacturers, and ahead of Tesla, the symbol of the global electric vehicle transformation. However, there is another side to this picture. The automotive sector does not tolerate romanticism; it demands volume.

The electric vehicle market in Turkey is growing; 104,000 electric vehicles were sold in 2024, and 189,968 in 2025. The market share of EVs has increased from 10% to 17.5%, but this market is still not on the scale of China or Europe. Even if we assume that EV sales will increase by 100% in 2026, it does not mean that TOGG will sell twice as many vehicles as it sold in 2025, because new players are constantly entering the market and Turkey is TOGG's only market. Now the question is: Can TOGG cover its costs with its current production volume, and how long can it compete with global manufacturers with these costs?

Battery costs, mold investments, software development, autonomous driving infrastructure, R&D, homologation processes, service network investment... All of these are high fixed cost items. Global manufacturers distribute these costs over millions of vehicles.

If you are trying to do this with 30–40 thousand vehicles, the cost per unit is naturally higher. When production volume does not increase:

• Bargaining power with suppliers decreases,

• The amortization period for software investments lengthens

• Developing new models becomes more difficult

• Margin pressure increases in the face of price competition

There are many examples of this in automotive history: Brands stuck in the domestic market face cost pressure in the long run. Most importantly, Turkey is a market with high price sensitivity. Electric vehicle preferences are largely shaped by tax advantages, campaigns, financing opportunities, and brand perception. When global players implement aggressive price-cutting strategies, the room for maneuver for a brand dependent solely on the domestic market narrows.

BYD sells millions of electric vehicles worldwide. Tesla similarly has global production scale. When these companies determine their prices in Turkey, they do not think only according to the Turkish volume. They optimize within the global profitability equation. TOGG, on the other hand, is currently leaning on a single market. It has only 144 sales in Germany.

THE REALITY OF ECONOMIES OF SCALE: WHAT DOES THE PRODUCTION MAP IN TURKEY SAY?

The 2025 production figures actually show the essence of the issue. Ford Otosan produced 700,000 units, Renault 387,000, Hyundai 197,000, and Tofaş 132,000. A significant portion of this production goes to exports. In other words, global players producing in Turkey are playing for European volume, not the domestic market. For these companies, Turkey is a production base. For TOGG, Turkey is both a production and the only sales market. The difference is critical.

What Should Be Done?

1. Entry into Europe is inevitable, but the timing must be strategic. The European Union has recently been introducing additional customs duties and regulations against electric vehicles of Chinese origin. This situation could strategically place countries with production within the EU or production integrated with the EU in a more advantageous position. If TOGG's expansion into Europe is structured correctly, it could be a third alternative in the market. Neither the Chinese price pressure nor the German premium price level. What is critical here is this: TOGG should go to Europe not with a defensive reflex, but before the window of opportunity closes.

EU homologation, battery regulations (mechanisms like Carbon Border Adjustment), software security standards... If TOGG overcomes these barriers early, it can position itself in Europe as a "regulation-compliant new player." But if it is late, Chinese manufacturers will have already completed their production investments within Europe.

2. Battery and Supply Depth: TOGG's battery investment is a strategically correct step. However, if the scale does not grow, the unit cost advantage of this investment will be limited. Real power comes from growing production volume and supply chain depth together.

3. Model Diversity: It is difficult to create a sustainable automotive brand with two models. Because in automotive, volume is formed not only by the total number of sales, but also by segment distribution.

Today, TOGG's product range is limited to the C-SUV (T10X) and sedan (T10F). However, the Turkish market is concentrated in these segments:

• B and C segment SUV

• Compact models with high price accessibility

• Commercial vehicles (especially electric light commercial)

Global manufacturers use the same platform for different body types to both provide cost advantages and spread demand. Expanding models without a platform strategy increases costs; but expanding with platform depth reduces unit costs.

TOGG must clarify its strategy here. A model in a smaller segment with a more accessible price could create significant volume in Turkey. If TOGG can spread its platform to 4–5 body types, it could double its volume. This threshold would create a breaking point in the cost structure. Or will the brand maintain its position in the premium line?

WHERE IS TOGG HEADING?

Automotive is a sector that requires precision manufacturing, supply chain management, quality standards, and engineering discipline. Turkey has been doing this successfully for decades. However, producing a car and creating a globally competitive brand are not the same thing.

The arrival of the T10F after the T10X is a correct expansion step, but two models, limited segment representation, and a sales structure based on a single market are not enough for long-term sustainability. Without scale, platform depth, and export capacity, the cost structure remains fragile.

The electric vehicle transformation is not slowing down. Global players are not just producing vehicles; they are building software ecosystems, battery technology, and data-based revenue models. Competition is no longer just about sheet metal, chassis, and engines; it is conducted through platforms.

Being a 'national brand' is the starting motivation; sustainability requires strategy. The real question is no longer whether TOGG produces cars. The real question is this: Can TOGG create scale and how long will it take to do so? Because in automotive, the real race is won not in the factory, but in the platform and volume.