Here's your empty chair

A bit about the "Empty Chair" and a bit about inflation...

Calling it the "Empty Chair Crisis" might be an overstatement. But there is clearly a diplomatic power play being made with an "Empty Chair."

"Yes, this is the party headquarters and I am the chairman of this party, but I am also the President who has consolidated all powers. Don't forget who you are talking to!"

When CHP Chairman Özgür Özel expressed his dissatisfaction regarding the empty chair, Erdoğan softened the atmosphere by saying, "I will also visit the CHP Headquarters as soon as possible." Let's see what kind of diplomatic response will be given when Erdoğan is hosted at the CHP Headquarters. Here is what comes to my mind and my suggestion to Özgür Özel and the CHP Headquarters management.

You should put out three chairs.

Two armchairs suitable for modern design on the sides. For the middle chair, place an order with a carpenter immediately. Let it be similar to the chair at Atatürk's desk. During the visit, the chairmen of the two parties will sit in the armchairs on the sides. Atatürk's honorary chair will remain empty.

In this way, you would be sending the message: "Yes, you are talking to a newly elected, fresh-faced young chairman, but don't forget that the first owner of this chairmanship chair is Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. This 'Empty Chair' is his spiritual legacy."

Of course, while doing this, the CHP must also declare that it upholds the Atatürk principles from which it drifted during the Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu era, and that it will never allow the understanding of the 1921 Constitution, which Kılıçdaroğlu gave the green light to at the Table of Six.

As is known, there are two institutions that Gazi Mustafa Kemal Atatürk called his "greatest works." One is the Republic of Turkey, and the other is the Republican People's Party (CHP)... The chairs of both offices are very valuable. Of course, those who come to those offices cannot fill Atatürk's shoes, but it is enough if they uphold his principles. Unfortunately, those who have sat in both chairs for many years have long forgotten Atatürk.

THIS INFLATION WILL NOT FALL

April inflation came out at 3.18 percent according to TÜİK, 5.02 percent according to ENAG, and 7.96 percent according to my own inflation basket. The 12-month inflation is at 69.80 percent for TÜİK, 124.35 percent for ENAG, and 120.47 percent for me. The monthly increase continues.

Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek says, "Inflation is proceeding as we programmed. We were expecting these increases; it will continue to fall in the coming months."

The inflation that Şimşek says will fall is this: Last year in July and August, inflation was at the 9 percent level for two consecutive months according to TÜİK. Since there will not be a 9 percent increase this year, even if inflation increases by 2 percent in these two months, TÜİK's annual inflation will drop from 75 percent to 50 percent, and Mehmet Şimşek and the Central Bank will say, "Look, we lowered inflation." Even if annual inflation drops in those two months, prices will continue to rise in the following months. Many economists know that they will engage in this misleading propaganda for the public and are warning in advance. I wrote about this in this column on February 25th under the title "Fox-like Cunning in Inflation."

So, will inflation fall? The decline that will occur due to the base effect will be a temporary decline. We have written this many times. Let's repeat it. Inflation cannot be lowered only with interest rate and monetary policies. It is necessary to both increase production and cut public spending.

The government's austerity measures seem to be token "pocket change." For example, there will be no savings from the Diyanet's official vehicles, but some official vehicles will be sold. These are not enough to lower inflation, but they are a gesture of good will.

They cannot produce any solution regarding the KKM (Currency Protected Deposit), which stands as a heavy burden on the Central Bank and therefore the nation. Can you cut the highway, bridge, and airport guarantee payments, and city hospital guarantee payments, which are the most important black holes in the budget, to save in the public sector? There is not a "peep" from the government side on this issue.

Can you cut the money transferred from Wealth Fund companies and ruling party municipalities to sects and religious communities?

Can you establish a non-corrupt tender system that stops having 1 lira worth of work done for 3 or 10 liras in public tenders and instead gets work done at its real value?

THE INCREASE IN FOOD PRICES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SUMMER MONTHS

Inflation will drop a little due to the base effect, but then it will continue to rise again. Moreover, the vegetable and fruit prices they hope will fall will also increase. As for the reasons...

Our Mehmet Şimşek and the Central Bank team believe that a small increase in the incomes of low-income earners, minimum wage earners, and retirees causes inflation. I have written many times that they do not know the realities of Turkey and the subject of inflation at all. I asked and requested several times, "Lamb chops and beef tenderloin prices have exceeded 1000 liras. Can you prepare an econometric model that explains the relationship between the demand increase that causes this and the salary increases of minimum wage earners?" No response.

They say vegetable and fruit prices will fall in the summer months, and inflation will also fall. During the AKP government era, the production side of the economy was always neglected. As for agriculture, let alone being neglected, agricultural production was dynamited.

On the other hand, we look at the data for the first three months of this year. It is clear that the number of tourists will increase in the summer months this year compared to last year. On one hand, agricultural production is not increasing. On the other hand, we have 15 million refugees on top of a population of 85 million. These are people who demand food items for 12 months.

Over 50 million tourists come to Turkey annually. The density is between May and September. During this period, the number of tourists coming to Turkey is 29 million. The average monthly tourist arrival is approximately 6 million. These 6 million people do not say, "Turkey's sun, sand, and sea are enough for us, even if we stay hungry." In open buffets, three times the amount of food that a person would normally consume is placed, from red meat to white meat, from vegetables and fruits to desserts. One unit is consumed, and two units go to waste.

Due to both the lack of production, increases in production costs, and the increase in tourism demand, inflation in food prices will not fall this summer.

But I am sure of one thing. Food price inflation will not fall, but Mehmet Şimşek and the Central Bank will say that the increase in food prices and inflation is caused by the raises given to civil servants and retirees in the second half of the year. Especially if there is a raise in the minimum wage in July... If Şimşek and his team remain in their positions, they will say, "We did our best, but because you didn't eliminate the retirees, civil servants, and minimum wage earners, inflation got out of control."

I am writing it here. Inflation will take off again in November. I will remind you of this article in November and December.

TRADE WITH ISRAEL

Turkey needs foreign currency to fight inflation and for stability in the markets. Turkey is in a position of having a surplus in trade with Israel... I am not talking about the losses that may arise from this trade due to the cessation of trade with Israel. I don't know if it will happen or not, but there is another risk factor.

First, let me share some of my views. Then let's list a few facts.

Hamas is a terrorist organization. It was founded by Israel.

Whether it is still controlled by Israel or has gone out of control, I have no information or guess about this.

The retaliatory operation that Hamas started in Gaza after its attack on Israel has turned into a massacre that has exceeded retaliation.

These are my opinions. Now let's list the unadulterated facts.

The AKP and political Islamists continued to trade with Israel on one hand while saying "Damn them" on the other. When the reaction in public opinion rose, they stopped trade with Israel.

News smelling of threats, such as the cost of this restriction will be heavy, appeared in the Israeli press.

Turkey is frantically looking for money (debt or hot money) in international financial markets to keep the wheels of its economy turning.

The control of international financial markets is in the hands of the Jews. Israel is a Jewish state.

There is such a risk out there as an important risk factor for both the fight against inflation and the fresh blood and stability sought in financial markets. I am not making any comments on whether it will happen or not. I am putting this risk out there and inviting Mehmet Şimşek, Central Bank managers, and the "locals" in the financial market to be cautious.

By the way, it is said that Gazan refugees (approximately 1 million people) will come to Turkey. Accepting these refugees into Turkey means gifting the lands of Gaza to Israel. If such a thing happens, Turkey will have pulled the wool over the eyes of world public opinion with the trade embargo on Israel, but it will have done a great service to Israel. Then there would be no risk factor like the one above. On the contrary, money would rain down on Turkey. According to the scenarios written abroad, the dollar would fall. In the short term, market financiers and "locals" would go crazy with joy. Turkey would consume by borrowing without producing, just like in the 2004-2008 years. Afterwards, we would be in a worse state than today. The expression for this in a language everyone understands is, "the groom having a wedding with someone else's money." It is unclear who will enter the bridal chamber afterwards.