'I hope I am exaggerating'

Can Atalay is just an excuse... There is no disagreement or conflict between the high courts. There is a direct attack by the political power on the Constitution and the Constitutional Court, which they perceive as an obstacle. The common opinion of every legal expert I respect and whose views I trust is that what is being done is a (coup) attempt against the Constitution.

Once the subject shifts from a legal debate to a coup debate, everyone will look at it from their own field. What could be the reflections on the economy? Let's briefly look at some issues.

Where there is no justice, no rules, and no reliable legal system, you cannot speak of economic development, democracy, or a modern society. Even if you have all kinds of natural resource wealth, if you create laws and justice not according to rules but according to your own interests, you are not a developed modern state, but merely a handful of rulers of a tent state sitting on top of natural resources. This cannot even be called a republic.

Moreover, Turkey is not rich in natural resources either. On the contrary, Turkey, which was self-sufficient in the pre-AKP era, is neck-deep in debt and dependent on the outside world. To keep the wheels of its economy turning, it is approximately 70 percent dependent on imports in the manufacturing industry, though this varies from sector to sector. Energy dependency is at the 75 percent level.

Due to the increasing foreign debts as a result of the irrational and unscientific economic policies implemented, the current account deficit reaching 50 billion dollars annually, and the Central Bank reserves being at the level of minus 50 billion dollars, the need for fresh foreign resources is at its peak for the routine wheels of the economy to function. Turkey is like a drug addict, it is foreign-debt-aholic and dependent on foreign resources. It is also known to everyone that Mehmet Şimşek and his team are touring all over the world in search of foreign investors and resources. Now, on top of these conditions, we are experiencing a Constitutional Coup attempt. What could be the chance of Mehmet Şimşek finding foreign investors while touring the world?

It is not just the chance of finding foreign investors; the costs of new borrowing for Turkey to roll over its foreign debts will also gradually increase. A few days before the constitutional coup attempt, the Treasury went for sukuk borrowing with an 8.5 percent yield rate. (A type of Islamic borrowing. They call it yield rate instead of interest.) We understand how high this rate is when we compare it with the Indonesian Treasury's sukuk borrowing with a 5.4 percent yield rate during the same days. It would not be a prophecy to expect Turkey's new borrowing costs to increase even more after this point.

As these lines are being written, market actors who evaluate the economy only as "buy-sell" in foreign exchange and stock markets are either unaware of what is happening or are in a hurry to quietly unload their risky positions. The truth will come out in a few days; I hope I have exaggerated too much and am wrong.

THE TITLE DEED WAS PIERCED IN THIS CHAOS

Amidst this noise and commotion, a law that received very little attention on the agenda passed through parliament quietly on Wednesday, November 8. On Wednesday, November 8, everyone's eyes and ears were on the Constitutional Court and the Censorship Law. Contrary to expectations, the Court did not cancel this law. Just as we were about to discuss this, the Court of Cassation's 3rd Chamber made its move against the Constitutional Court. Everything else fell into the background.

The title deed in Turkey has been pierced. The Ministry of Environment and Urbanization will be able to declare many areas, including sound buildings in residential areas, as reserve areas by using the earthquake as an excuse. This means: You no longer have property rights in a place declared a reserve area. Those living in this region will have to abandon the homes they own within 90 days, including the court objection process. The Ministry of Environment will also make zoning plans as it wishes in this region alone, without even consulting the municipalities. If you ask where this came from?

Murat Muratoğlu wrote about it in Sözcü the other day. The warehouses at the Topkapı Transporters Site were declared a risky area. Upon the objection of the warehouse owners, a formula of reserve building area was found instead of a risky area. A tender was held, and the Topkapı Transporters Site was transferred to a Saudi Arabian company to be built as offices, a hotel, a shopping mall, housing, and green space. Upon the smooth operation of the system, the subject became law. Not only empty areas but also areas with structures on them have been made eligible to be declared as reserve areas. It is a law that is completely contrary to the constitution and fundamental rights. In no democracy does the majority have the right to vote on and abolish fundamental rights. With this law, the Constitution was ignored, and the title deed was pierced. Any area with settlement anywhere in the city can suddenly be declared a reserve area for the sake of rent, those living in this region can be driven to other corners of the city, and their homes and lands can be seized and sold to locals or cronies. Such a law will, of course, go to the Constitutional Court, and of course, under normal circumstances, the Constitutional Court would cancel this law. It is precisely because of this possibility of cancellation that the weakening or elimination of the Constitutional Court's influence is on the agenda.

Can the wealth and wealth transfers obtained in this way, the seizing of the nation's property, be permanent? The local or foreign capital that will seize this is surely not naive. When they invest in a country where a legal order is created not according to rules but according to the interests of those who seize power, they can surely predict that the same thing will happen to them during the next government period.

The one-man regime was already making it difficult for Mehmet Şimşek to find fresh money or new investors, primarily due to high inflation and current account deficit, macroeconomic indicators, and Turkey being on the Grey List for money laundering and terrorist financing. On top of the coup attempt against the Constitution, the disappearance of title deed security will make things more difficult than expected. Just think... You are a foreign-capital company and you have established a large facility with a large investment. You have also received the promise from the current government that "Nothing will happen while we are here, and you will have all kinds of incentives." Another government that comes after this one leaves can declare the area where your factories and investments are located as a reserve area.

Will only the incoming foreign capital be intimidated? We are entering a period where both existing foreign capital and local capital will seriously transfer resources abroad. If you ask how this will happen... Through transfer pricing... We will understand this in the coming months from the indices showing Turkey's foreign trade terms. Foreign and local capital companies will make their existing imports at higher prices through the method we call transfer pricing, our monthly foreign trade deficit will increase, and thus they will realize higher amounts of profit transfer and wealth transfer abroad.