If there is no rule of law, predatory capital arrives

The Regional Administrative Court's decision on "Absolute Nullity" and the Supreme Election Council's (YSK) decision to pave the way for this ruling—in a manner that denies its own existence despite the mandatory provisions of the Constitution—is an indicator that the ballot-box democracy that exists in form is now nearing its end. It is not limited to this alone. It also points to the Law Model and the New Economic Model dictated by the government. A Semi-Colonial Country Model, much like in the final periods of the Ottoman Empire…(1)

Even in situations where there are no extraordinary conditions at home or abroad, the following assessment is not an exaggeration at all. Turkey is a country with high external debt... It runs a significant external deficit (current account deficit) every year. To find foreign currency, it is dependent on "hot money" by paying the highest interest rates in the world. For this reason, resources are constantly being transferred from domestic to abroad. Furthermore, due to constantly increasing budget deficits, the Treasury's interest payments are increasing their share in the budget every year. Services that should be provided to citizens and social state expenditures are being cut. Domestically, income is being transferred from the poor to upper-income groups. Poverty is increasing.

This unbalanced structure occasionally becomes even more severe due to negative conditions emerging at home and abroad.

We are still paying the bill for the economic costs caused by the judicial operation carried out against Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB) Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his colleagues last year.

Developments in the oil market as a result of the US-Israel coalition's attack on Iran over the last few months have caused very serious increases in Turkey's current account deficit, and the increase in the current account deficit will continue.

While these pressures exist in the economy and the pressure of the Iran War continues, news began to fly from pro-government pens. First, "A decision has been made regarding the Absolute Nullity Case. However, it is not clear when it will be announced." A short time passed. "The Absolute Nullity Case will be announced on Friday evening after the markets close.."

While such articles were appearing in the pro-government press, the following view was also dominant among many economic writers: The state of the Central Bank's reserves is well-known. The anti-inflation program is not working. Far from lowering interest rates, raising them is on the agenda. Turkey needs direct foreign capital. The cost of the İmamoğlu operation is known... In such an environment, a political-legal operation cannot be carried out.

In my 44-year journalism career, the most important lesson I have learned for Turkey is this:

"This is Turkey, my friend, anything can happen at any moment."

Additionally, regarding foreign capital, I often touch upon a subject that many economist friends do not emphasize much. An example is the article "If you are a colonial economy, foreign capital will come even without the rule of law..." in 12 Punto on July 20, 2025.

I also did not expect such an operation before July, especially before the NATO meeting. The initial two-day effects are limited for now. Turkey's risk score, CDS, rose by 20 basis points to 261. Financiers following the Central Bank say that the Central Bank sold nearly 15 billion dollars in reserves in two days to prevent the rise in the exchange rate.

IF YOU ARE A COLONIAL ECONOMY, FOREIGN CAPITAL WILL COME EVEN WITHOUT THE RULE OF LAW

It is useful to summarize my view that "If you are a colonial economy, foreign capital will come even without the rule of law" upon the taking of such a decision at a time when the internal and external conjuncture is putting so much pressure on the economy and external deficits.

Almost all economists say that for economic development and the level of advancement, democracy and legal standards must be at the level of the contemporary world. Especially in countries where capital and technology accumulation is insufficient, the rule of law and economic stability (a country without inflation and transparency in economic decisions taken) are of great importance for closing this gap with direct foreign capital inflows.

For Turkey, I make the following observation. Foreign capital will come even without the rule of law. Economic historians will evaluate it more clearly in the future. Turkey is about to transition to a new phase in the economy... A semi-colonial economy based on capitulations, just like in the final period of the Ottoman Empire...

This is the phase I mean when I say "foreign capital will come even without the rule of law." This phase is now the phase of the Republic of Turkey's transformation into a semi-colonial/colonial economy.

Turkey has ceased to be a country to be cooperated with or a business partner in the world economy; it has begun to be seen as a country whose mines and natural resources will be exploited.

While we are at it, let us state this as well. The profit transfer of foreign capital is different. Foreign capital also transfers profits in China, which is governed by the Communist Party. Finding foreign currency with high interest (hot money) and keeping the economy running is a separate mechanism of exploitation. In both, value-added is created domestically. A colonial economy is a completely different mechanism. It has no value-added in the economy. The country's resources are plundered; it only ensures the enrichment of the management level that distributes the concessions.

Turkey needs foreign currency to turn the wheels of its economy. Foreign currency found with high interest was a separate order of exploitation. Now, the foreign currency found this way is no longer enough. We hit the wall. We need foreign investors who do not question the rule of law and who are not bothered by the one-man regime. We need a new field and a new type of investor...

The solution found is painful. What are our mines for?

There is a billionaire named Harold Hamm, a close friend of Trump, an honorary interior minister, an oilman, and a mining businessman. On March 14, 2025, an agreement whose details were not disclosed was signed between Harold Hamm's company, Continental Resources, and the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Then the İmamoğlu operation was carried out. On May 23, 2025, a reporter for the American television channel Fox News asked Harold Hamm, Trump's friend, honorary interior minister, oilman, and mining businessman.

"As an investor, are you worried about Turkey?"

Hamm's answer shows very clearly what Turkey has become:

"Things like this happen in countries that are not democratic or where there is democracy to some extent but it is not sufficient. You know, you put your opponents in jail and you take care of them. I am not worried."

Even without the rule of law, if you grant large concessions and revive the capitulations, foreign capital will come running.

There is no country in history that has become rich by selling raw materials. The period of recklessly distributing mining licenses and plundering raw materials and natural resources is a transition to a full semi-colonial/colonial country period.

While making the determination of the transition to colonial economy characteristics, let us also look at this period through diplomacy and foreign relations. The US Ambassador to Ankara, who is also the special representative for Syria, targets the Treaty of Lausanne, cites the Treaty of Sèvres as an example, and praises the Ottoman Millet system for Turkey instead of a secular and unitary republic. It is unclear whether he is an ambassador or a colonial governor.

AND BLACKROCK

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel attacked Iran. Just one month after the war, the CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest fund, Larry Fink, was at the Dolmabahçe Palace on March 27, along with President Erdoğan, Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek, and Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar.

Given the state of the Central Bank's reserves and the pressure of the war on the economy, the possible economic fragilities that such a legal operation against the main opposition party, the CHP, will cause, along with foreign fund relations, brings the question "I wonder" to the agenda.

(1) One of the famous sociologists of the period, Werner Sombart, notes the following lines for the Ottoman Empire in his doctoral lectures at the University of Berlin. "The Ottoman Empire is a typical example of a semi-colony. A magnificent empire that once spread across three continents, because it could not keep up with the economic and social conditions of the industrial revolution, is today dying in a state of complete disintegration and decay in the hands of imperialist states, afflicted with all the ailments of backwardness. Dr. Serdar Şahinkaya, First Step Towards Revolution, Mustafa Kemal Pasha's Populism Program. Telgrahane Publications...