Seeing tomorrow through the lens of economic history (3)

FIRST PART OF THE ARTICLE

SECOND PART OF THE ARTICLE

We stated that "there were two treaties after the First World War that could not be implemented." One was the Treaty of Versailles, which imposed harsh conditions on Germany... The Second World War broke out when Germany did not pay the required reparations. The Second World War was the completion of the unfinished division from the First World War and the bringing to heel of Germany, which had not fulfilled the requirements of the Treaty of Versailles.

The second of the treaties that could not be implemented after the First World War was the Treaty of Sèvres, and the Turkish War of Independence and the Treaty of Lausanne represent a defeat that imperialism still cannot accept. The Counter-Revolution process in Turkey is not just a reactionary movement; it is the process of imperialism settling its unfinished business with the Republic of Turkey.

Turkey's NATO membership has prevented Turkey from being subjected to an overt military attack, but the same NATO also constitutes a threat to Turkey. The new leg of the process is the Greater Middle East Project. Therefore, let us say 'attention' and continue to take a look at the third major crisis of capitalism, which began in 2008 and is still ongoing, and the geopolitics of the world and Turkish economy.

In 1971, the US abandoning the gold standard behind the dollar was, in essence, also in the interest of international finance capital and trade capital. The new phase of imperialism was built on: indebt, bring under control, and manage.

At the same time, there were major increases in industrial production. Due to the limited supply of dollars tied to gold, neither finance capital could transfer credit to the world, nor could the volume of foreign trade develop sufficiently. After the 1970s, liberalization began in world trade, and customs duties fell. The loans that finance capital opened to other countries increased.

The year is 1973... The Yom Kippur War between Palestine and the Arab League... Followed by a long-lasting oil shock. A barrel of oil rose from approximately 2.5 dollars to the 12-dollar level. The US and the UK were the countries least affected by the oil crisis. Germany and Japan, whose currencies gained value against the dollar, were completely dependent on oil.

With the oil crisis, the world met cost-push inflation. The state-interventionist and high-tax system, where Keynesian economics reigned, began to be questioned. By the mid-1980s, the Monetary Policies of Milton Friedman, considered the father of neoliberal economic policies, began to be implemented.

The first to implement them were US President Ronald Reagan, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and, without regard for the consequences, Turkish Prime Minister Turgut Özal...

In 1989, with the Washington Consensus, the rules of the Neoliberal world order and the policies of the IMF and the World Bank were announced.

When the Soviet Bloc collapsed in 1990, the capitalist system no longer needed social welfare policies. Education, health, and pension systems should not be a burden on the state and should be left to the market. The free movement of capital and goods should be ensured, and customs duties should be abolished. Democracy and freedoms are also determined separately for each country or each class in line with the national security and national interests of the US. They are unnecessary for everyone.

Thus, although the period between 1944-1975 is defined as the golden age of the capitalist system, the Keynesian system now ends, and the neoliberal system is implemented. Labor unions lose their power, tax increases stop, and capital and goods circulate freely. The world is unipolar.

I will pass over the remaining part briefly. In the neoliberal world order, China's major offensive begins. Between 1980-2000, it makes a breakthrough with imitation goods and cheap labor. Between 2000-2010, it has internalized technology and moves from imitation goods to its own products. During this period, it rises rapidly and settles into second place in the world economy between 2010-2020.

US goods and European goods cannot compete with China. A strange twist of fate... The leader of the capitalist world, US President Donald Trump, defends customs duties, while Communist China defends free trade...

In 2008, capitalism enters the third major crisis in its history. The bubble inflated by the financial system producing toxic assets bursts first in the real estate market. (Mortgage crisis). Giant banks and insurance companies in the US begin to go bankrupt. Neoliberals, who advocate for minimizing state intervention, invite the state in through the back door.

The asset size on the balance sheet of the US Central Bank, the FED, which was 900 billion dollars, is increased to 4.5 trillion dollars by printing dollars. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan do not stand idle either. Unbacked money is printed. In 2016, the effects of the crisis begin to diminish but do not end; central banks make plans to slowly withdraw the money they printed starting from 2018.

The FED's target is to drop to 2.5 trillion dollars. However, Covid-19 breaks out. Neoliberals invite the state in through the back door again to intervene in the economy. Money is printed again. The amount of dollars in the market has reached 9 trillion.

The neoliberal system causes great inequality between developed and developing countries. The debts of developing countries increase. At the same time, it also leads to tremendous income and wealth inequality internally. Not only in Turkey, but in many countries of the world, the income of the middle class falls. Unemployment increases.

Meanwhile, China's offensive continues. China's Belt and Road Project begins to realize the old Silk Road with three lines, fiber optic networks, railways, and sea routes. Turkey is in a very strategic region with the Middle Corridor by rail. The US provokes local conflicts in all countries on the China Belt and Road, in the maritime belt and the land belt. The unrest in Myanmar, the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflicts, the Uyghur issue in China (problems are created not because they are Turks, but because they are Muslims), and the conflicts on the sea route leg of the China Belt and Road Project do not seem like they will end.

Within the scope of the Greater Middle East Project, at what stage are we for Syria, for the establishment of a Kurdish State in the north of Syria, and for the overthrow of the Iranian Regime? Have the necessary and sufficient conditions been met to prevent China's Belt and Road Project?

The operation to completely encircle Russia and collapse its economy had already begun. Keep the world map in mind. The narrow channel between Denmark and Sweden for Russia to open from the Baltic Sea to the oceans is as strategically and geopolitically important as the Istanbul Strait for opening to the Mediterranean. Will Sweden's NATO membership only create tension, or could it lead to a conflict?

TO BE CONTINUED