We have fallen behind even the crisis periods in 20 years

Since the founding of the Republic of Turkey, the country is experiencing the worst economic period in its history, including major global crises, oil crises, US embargoes, earthquakes, and the crises of 1994 and 2001 that remain fresh in our memories.  

When irrational and unscientific economic practices are combined with a system of plunder and looting, a picture emerges where people are becoming increasingly impoverished and unhappy, confidence in the future has vanished, and unemployment, foreign debt, lack of investment, and inflation have become chronic, forcing the country to go door-to-door begging for money just to keep the wheels of the economy turning. 

One of the things the AKP government does best is perception management – propaganda… It confuses the public with comparisons like the "Century of Turkey," "we are flying," "we are soaring," and "Old Turkey vs. New Turkey." Yet the truth is this: The AKP, which came to power by taking advantage of the opportunities presented by crisis periods, has taken Turkey even further back in the economy after 20 years than where it found it… The regression in political and social life is accelerating even faster, heading toward a dark middle age.

Let us remember what happened without being influenced by perception management. Turkey experienced an unstable period in both the economy and politics for three consecutive years with the 1999 earthquake and the 2000 and 2001 crises. The public swallowed the bitter pill of the IMF-backed stability program. The first signals that stability was beginning to be achieved in economic indicators started to arrive from April 2002, but the relief effect of this was not yet felt in society. The organization of the US, EU, IMF, World Bank, Kemal Derviş, and big capital stepped in. A coalition government without Ecevit and the MHP, and demands for early elections were brought to the agenda. With the support of the MHP, Turkey was handed over to AKP rule through the November 3, 2002 early elections, where the AKP was polished and all other parties in parliament were pushed below the electoral threshold.

Afterward, between 2003 and 2008, a "Tulip Era" was experienced in the economy, fueled by high real interest rates, abundant hot money, and plenty of foreign capital brought by the EU wind—a period based on imports and construction rather than production, funded by other people's money. Accompanied by the rhetoric of "They steal, but they work!", society was convinced of a fake paradise in the economy. However, the period of 2003-2008, when that Tulip Era was lived, is the beginning of the period when all balances in the economy were fundamentally disrupted.  

The basic indicators of the economy show that, despite the 20 years that have passed, Turkey is even below the severe crisis conditions of 2001…

Economists look at the economy through 5 basic macro indicators (national income, unemployment, inflation, internal deficit, external deficit) and income distribution. Changes based on just one period do not mean much. Meanwhile, the world and technology are also developing. Therefore, when making periodic comparisons, comparisons are also made with other countries to see whether there has been progress, regression, or stagnation… 

NATIONAL INCOME: Before the 2001 crisis, Turkey was one of the world's 17 largest economies. The AKP dropped this to 21st place. It is now in 19th place. But for the last three years, we have been suppressing the exchange rate by selling Central Bank foreign currency through the back door and paying interest on the KKM (FX-Protected Deposit) for borrowed money we did not receive, amounting to nearly 800 billion liras. If our national income were measured with a realistic exchange rate instead of a suppressed one, or if it were deflated (adjusted for inflation) according to a more realistic inflation rate rather than the inflation that does not reflect reality, our place would likely be below 25th, not 19th.

Let us also look at the national income per capita. According to the IMF, Turkey was 55th in the world in national income per capita in 1980 and 66th in 2002, when the crises occurred. During the AKP era, we fell to 79th. The IMF calculates this based on a population of 85 million. However, with refugees, our population is now 100 million. In this case, we should probably be in the 100s, not 79th. If we apply the realistic exchange rate and inflation calculation mentioned a few lines ago to this, it is possible to say that our place in the world ranking for national income per capita has fallen from 66th to below the 120s during the AKP era. 

UNEMPLOYMENT: Before the AKP, during the crisis period, unemployment was between 6-8 percent. Now it is 10-12 percent... The broad-based unemployment rate, which reflects the reality, is 23 percent… The average unemployment rate among OECD countries is 4.8 percent… While the unemployment rate in Turkey varied between 6-8 percent in the 2000s, the OECD average was also at the 6-7 percent level. Turkey, which was at the OECD average in unemployment before the AKP era, has doubled the OECD unemployment average during the AKP era and has taken its place among the top four countries with the highest unemployment rates. 

INFLATION: The AKP took over inflation at 26 percent. According to TÜİK's tall tales, inflation is 62 percent, whereas in reality, it is 140-150 percent… According to TÜİK, we are the country with the highest inflation in Europe and the seventh in the world. According to ENAG, we are one of the 3 countries with the highest inflation in the world.  

BUDGET AND INTERNAL DEFICITS: The state's domestic debt stock is increasing every day. While the acceptable level for the ratio of the budget deficit to national income is 3 percent, this ratio is currently at the 8-10 percent level in our country… Moreover, this is despite the fact that the nearly 800 billion lira interest payment transferred to the KKM is hidden. Due to reasons such as concealments in the budget and the removal of KKM interest payments from the budget, we unfortunately cannot make a comparison with other countries regarding the 'internal deficit' to national income ratio.

I must also state this. Excluding the last two years, the ratio of the AKP era budget deficit to national income is more successful than the 1980-2000 period average. However, behind it are privatization revenues, repeatedly issued fiscal amnesties, inflows of money of unknown origin that are welcomed regardless of source, and Turkey's inclusion on the Grey List by the OECD Financial Action Task Force regarding the financing of terrorism and money laundering. When evaluated with these, it is not possible to say that a successful budget policy has been followed. 

EXTERNAL DEFICIT: It inherited 129 billion dollars in foreign debt. Currently, Turkey's foreign debt is 460 billion dollars. In the past, in the 20 years before the AKP, Turkey's total current account deficit was 30 billion dollars. Today, in the last 20 years, it has reached 630 billion dollars. It has increased exactly 21 times. While we used to have an external deficit of 1.5 billion dollars per year, we now have an external deficit of 50 billion dollars per year. Turkey is the country with the highest current account deficit in the world relative to its national income… In the period before the AKP, Turkey was at the bottom of the world rankings in this ratio. While Turkey has had a current account deficit/national income ratio of between 5-6 percent during the AKP era, developing countries in this period, let alone having a deficit, had an average surplus of 1.4 percent of their national income. 

According to these 5 basic indicators that show the general state of the economy, the AKP has pushed Turkey behind the indicators of the 1999 earthquake, the 2000 crisis, and the 2001 crisis of 20-24 years ago.

After these indicators, for a general assessment of the economy, we also look at income distribution. During the AKP era, the situation of workers, farmers, and retirees has become increasingly impoverished. The share of national income received by workers was 31 percent in 2001; now it has fallen to 25 percent. However, as a result of the unscientific, irrational plunder policies and monetary policies implemented over the last 2 years, a very large-scale impoverishment and wealth transfer has occurred in society. The middle class has been completely destroyed. 80 percent of the population is below the poverty line set by Türk-İş. Of the remaining 20 percent, at least 12 percent are above the poverty line but cannot protect their eroding wealth. A handful of AKP cronies and the banking sector, which collects the cream of the faulty monetary policies implemented, are increasing their wealth. 

This is the general outlook of the economy. So, what is the state of our social life and quality of life? From the rule of law index to the press freedom index, from the gender inequality index to the corruption index, we have fallen to the bottom in all indices during the AKP era and are struggling. What about the services we receive from the state, such as education, health, public order, and justice? We will continue to examine them.