Is it a storm or an earthquake awaiting Turkey?

STRATEGIC PROBLEMS

Turkey is facing three existential (BEKA) problems that have the potential to be passed on to future generations:

- A total of 1,300 kilometers of border, including the 911-kilometer Syrian border and the 378-kilometer Iraqi border, has become a geography that produces terrorism.

- It has become the country hosting the largest number of refugees in the world.

- Idlib, which shares a 130-kilometer border with Hatay in Syria, has been transformed by the US into a 'Little Afghanistan'.

Idlib accounts for 5 percent of Syria's surface area. It has a 130-kilometer border with Turkey (Hatay). The United Nations (UN) report dated July 15, 2019, states that 'Idlib and Afghanistan are the two regions where foreign terrorist fighters are most densely concentrated.' Furthermore, it is stated that it has become 'the world's largest dumping ground for foreign terrorist fighters.' The UN report actually underscores this reality: Idlib, which shares a 130-kilometer border with Turkey, has turned into a 'Little Afghanistan.' The UN report dated December 27, 2019, also states that Idlib is an area where groups linked to Al-Qaeda and DAESH/ISIS take refuge.(1) Turkey is the country most negatively affected after Syria by the radical terror spiral created in Idlib.

No country in the world, including the richest and most powerful ones like the US and Germany, would want to be neighbors with a 'Little Afghanistan.'

HOW DID THIS SITUATION COME TO BE?

Prominent American political scientist Samuel Huntington emphasized that the 'Moderate Islam' model was suitable for Turkey with the words: 'If Turkey abandons its insistence on being a Western country and focuses more on showing that modernization and democracy can exist in an Islamic country, it will be a great model for the whole world and for Islam.'(2) Significant steps were taken in line with this thought of Huntington.

Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, while serving as National Security Advisor, stated on August 7, 2003, within the scope of the Greater Middle East Project (GMEP), that the regimes and borders of 23 countries would change. The countries consisting of Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan covered a geography of 17 million square kilometers.(3) The support Turkey initially gave to the US policy on Iraq and Syria is among the stones laid on the journey leading to today. In the storm called the 'Arab Spring,' which was in reality a 'Bloody Autumn,' cooperation with the US again affected Turkey the most negatively.

In 2015, Saudi Arabia and Israel agreed on a plan. The first leg of this plan was the establishment of a Kurdish State in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran; the second leg was to carry out a regime change in Iran.(4) The Syria and Iraq parts of this plan have been completed. According to the plan, Iran is next, followed by Turkey. While moving rapidly toward this goal, the PKK/PYD terrorist organization had not even imagined that it would reach such power in such a short time.

A GIANT IN GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION, INEFFECTIVE IN GEOPOLITICS

'Geopolitics' is the art of using a country's geography in world politics. A country's geography is the unchanging element of geopolitics. Geography determines the future of countries. Turkey is a giant in terms of its geographic location. The art of using this giant geographic location in world politics reflects your geopolitical power. It is not possible to say that Turkey's geographic power has been reflected in geopolitics over the last twenty years.

That is why Turkey has faced three strategic problems that will affect future generations as well. It is inevitable for Turkey to face the reality that as it moves away from Atatürk, the existential (BEKA) problem will gain momentum and increase. Whether the three existential problems Turkey is facing will create a storm or an earthquake will emerge in the coming period.

And despite this reality, Turkey is delaying cooperation with Syria. It supports the Syrian opposition. Yet, the territorial integrity of Syria is Turkey's insurance.

THE 'BOZKURT' AND 'UMMAH' UNDERSTANDING

The unfair penalty given to Merih Demiral at the European Football Championship brought the 'Bozkurt' (Grey Wolf) sign to the agenda. It is a tragedy of the 'Ummah' (Islamic community) understanding that the political spectrum that adopts this concept would embrace the 'Bozkurt,' the symbol of the Turk in mythology, and make that sign. The 'Student Oath' (Andımız) was abolished in 2013. Since the political power that abolished it and its supporters have embraced the 'Bozkurt' sign, shouldn't they put the 'Student Oath' back into the program?

İsmet Paşa (İnönü) had said, 'The mistake you make at the beginning of a war will not leave you until the end of the war.' This is a fundamental rule of strategy. Fevzi Paşa (Çakmak) says, 'An enemy who has a weapon in his hand and is facing you is not a defeated enemy!' This is the tactical rule of war. These words are the summary of the history of war. And the history of war is the history of humanity itself...

Einstein had said: 'It is a sign of extreme naivety to experience the same things again and be surprised by the results.' He had said it, but no one listened...

(1) Sedat Ergin, Hürriyet Newspaper, February 12, 2010 article. idlib

(2) Fevzi Uslubaş, İmparatorlukların Bataklığı (The Swamp of Empires), Toplumsal Dönüşüm Publications, Istanbul, 2005.

(3) Metin Aydoğan, Türkiye Nereye Gidiyor (Where is Turkey Going), Umay Publications (6th Edition), 2007.

(4) Naim Babüroğlu, Bir Devletin Çöküşü (The Collapse of a State), Asi Kitap, Istanbul, 2016.