The Iranian Curtain in the Great Power Struggle: The Stance of China and Russia

The new phase of the US–Israel–Iran War, which broke out on February 28, is not merely a regional conflict but also a stress test where great power competition is reflected on the ground. In this context, the fundamental question is not "who will win?" but rather "how are global actors positioning themselves in this war?"

The stance of China and Russia, in particular, is one of the most critical external factors determining the direction of the conflict. It would not be wrong to say that the duo, which has been playing an increasingly active role compared to June 2025, is the primary external factor in Iran's resistance. Both actors are attempting to generate indirect influence through Iran while avoiding direct military confrontation with the US. This situation clearly demonstrates how great powers in the contemporary international system implement a strategy of "limited engagement – maximum impact."

From China's perspective, energy security lies at the heart of this war. The Chinese economy is heavily dependent on external energy, and nearly half of the oil it imports comes from the Gulf region. Therefore, the primary priority for Beijing is the uninterrupted flow of energy rather than the victory of any one side.

Economic ties between Iran and China are of critical importance at this point. China is by far the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports are directed to China. Furthermore, the 25-year comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement signed between the two countries envisioned long-term integration in the fields of energy, infrastructure, and security. This picture shows that Iran has become significantly dependent on China economically.

However, this dependency does not require China to openly support Iran, nor is such a situation visible on the ground. On the contrary, China is exhibiting a highly balanced behavioral model: it does not provide open military support to Iran, but it indirectly strengthens Iran's capacity to resist on the ground.

In this context, the flow of technology and materials that can be used for both civilian and military purposes is significant. According to US intelligence assessments, Chinese actors are providing Iran with chemical components, fuel, and various equipment that can be used in missile production. Additionally, some reports suggest that shoulder-fired air defense systems capable of shooting down low-altitude aircraft may be reaching Iran. Such contributions reveal China's model of "covert support + open neutrality." At the same time, China aims to maintain its image as a "responsible power" within the global system by attempting to position itself as a potential diplomatic mediator.

Russia, on the other hand, is focusing more openly on the security dimension of the matter than China, but Moscow also finds itself having to avoid entering the war directly. For Moscow, this war provides a strategic opportunity that diverts the US's attention and resources to another front. The relationship between Iran and Russia has deepened significantly in the military and security fields, especially in recent years. It is known that Russia provides Iran with fighter jets and missiles integrated into these aircraft. In this scope, deliveries are planned to continue until 2027, and it is stated that these systems have the capacity to be used directly against US and Israeli air assets.

Besides this, it is stated that Russia, like China, provides satellite data and intelligence support to Iran; specifically, information regarding the location of US naval assets is being shared. The process leading up to the ceasefire shows that this support directly affects the balance of power on the ground.

At this point, it must be emphasized that the cooperation between the two countries is not ideological, but largely pragmatic and interest-based. While supporting Iran, Russia carefully calculates its own risks and avoids direct intervention. One of the most important reasons for this is its military capacity, which is already strained due to the Ukraine War.

Furthermore, it can be said that while Moscow does not want Iran to collapse completely, it does not ignore the fact that its weakening could create certain strategic advantages for itself. Indeed, while rising energy prices mean direct gains for the Russian economy, the distraction of the West could indirectly reduce the impact of sanctions. For this reason, some experts claim that Russia is not in a hurry to save Iran, and even benefits from a controlled crisis to a certain level.

Viewed within the general framework, the approaches of China and Russia to Iran reflect two strategies that complement each other but rely on different tools. While China ensures Iran's survival through economic support and intra-systemic tools, Russia increases resistance on the ground through military technology, intelligence, and security cooperation.

I think we can formulate it this way: A kind of "train and equip" program, supported by Chinese finance and technology and implemented by the Russians, taking place on a larger stage. The common feature of both actors is that they do not enter the war directly and keep their risks limited. It seems that the situation will continue like this in the short term; but it is difficult to say, or even imagine, what the possibility of the war heating up in the summer months might bring.