The regime of probability has arrived in the country: Politics, the city, and the class of the unnecessary

Polymarket, a prediction market based on cryptocurrency, opened an interesting “bet” on May 26: “Will there be an early election in Turkey in 2026?”

It would be more accurate to call Polymarket a “prediction exchange.” It is quite unsettling that this bet was opened during a week when our country’s political history was embroiled in unforgettable scandals. In the past, politics would debate the future of society, and society would debate the fate of politics. Although foreign interventions in domestic developments increased significantly with the Cold War, the debates mostly remained “local and national.” Now, our future is being traded in real-time on the market of global gamblers and barons.

This development coincided with global political-economic discussions, some of which were overlooked due to the intensity of the agenda in our country: On May 26, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that “intelligence” would become a commodity that could be purchased like electricity or water, dropping the “artificial” tag. A day earlier, on May 25, Pope Leo XIV declared war against artificial intelligence trampling on human values. A few weeks before that, Dario Amodei, CEO of Altman’s competitor Anthropic, had announced that 10% to 20% of white-collar workers would be unemployed within a few years. As if to decorate this entire picture, the government in the US issued a warning against “anti-AI extremist movements.”

It seems that humans are no longer viewed as citizens or subjects, but merely as variables within the fluid global economy. On the other hand, while 61% of the public in the US believes that artificial intelligence will destroy existing professions, what the Turkish public thinks about this issue, unless it has escaped my notice, has not yet been documented.

Yet, the same Turkish public can easily be deprived of their freedom of movement in accordance with the requirements of the global economy! Just as it happened on May 20. If we recall, one of Istanbul’s main arteries was closed on that date due to a football match between two European teams. While citizens, from children to the elderly, were forced to carry their grocery bags and school bags in their hands or on their backs, taxis, tour buses, and motorcycle couriers were granted passage. Because human values are no longer determined by morality or politics, but directly by the logic of circulation and the market.

Today, we are in a kind of dystopian future envisioned by the famous author Yuval Noah Harari. And this is happening in the heart of Istanbul and in every corner of Turkey. Harari, who became a global sensation with his book Sapiens, heralded these days in an interview with Diken on January 28, 2017, by saying, “A new class of the unnecessary is being born.”

In his interview with Mehveş Evin, Harari said the following:

“So what will happen if people are no longer useful to the system? We are already experiencing this in a military sense. It is no longer necessary to draft millions of people for wars. Elite forces are being trained, such as special operations forces or people who will use drones. Armies are increasingly turning to the use of sophisticated and autonomous technology. Some people are losing their military value. The same applies to civilian life and the economy: For example, self-driving cars could put taxi drivers out of work. IBM’s Watson could replace doctors, and algorithms could replace stockbrokers. Someone who studies finance to become a stockbroker might not be able to find a job in 10 years.”

Returning to the present day: the elderly woman returning from the market, the student leaving high school whose hopes for the future have withered before they could even bloom, the worker forced to walk from Beşiktaş to Tophane after being exhausted all day, the white-collar worker who, after being plunged into sadness by the “absolute nullity” debate, learns that foreign investors are hedging the possibility of an early election in the country... Yes, the regime of probability has arrived in the country, welcome!

This is not the first bet opened on Polymarket regarding Turkish domestic politics. Previously, questions such as “Will Erdoğan leave office by December 31, 2026?” and “Will İmamoğlu be released by the end of March 2025?” were asked. It should also be noted that not every bet opened functions as a “prediction” or “prophecy.” Yes, Polymarket, where Donald Trump, Jr., the son of US President Trump, is on the advisory board, had correctly predicted that Biden would withdraw from the presidential race in the summer of 2024 or that the Iran-Israel War could (re)erupt. However, apart from these, it failed to make accurate predictions on many other instantaneous or long-term developments.

Nevertheless, these developments show that politics, both domestically and abroad, has ceased to be politics and has turned into price movements, and more clearly than ever before, into a profit-loss statement. Insiders and politicians who manipulate domestic and foreign public opinion to profit through such platforms show that the distinction between the “unnecessary” and the “necessary” has become definitive. To the political decisions that have been influenced by many segments from the media to unions, and from lobbies to capitalists, a “global gamble” has now been added.

In such a picture, what is the need for the masses who are already outside of what Yalçın Küçük conceptualized as “TİT” (tourism, construction, textile sectors)? If foreign tourists are filling the bars and cafes, taxis are not remaining empty, hotels are fully booked, and in the meantime, those with money can easily call a motorcycle courier to their home and get their orders, what is the need for the “unnecessary”?

Still, let’s not lose hope. The solution is again in Harari. Let’s see what our philosopher says: “Atatürk did not look to the past; he created a vision for the future. We need this spirit now as well.”

They say a broken clock is right twice a day.

To answer those who might be wondering, “Why is Harari mentioning Atatürk?”, I will provide one piece of information and close this topic:

Harari, who declared a large part of humanity unnecessary, made this statement in September 2023 at the “International Atatürk Conference” organized by İş Bankası—which champions Hasan Âli Yücel, one of the symbolic figures of humanitarian thought in our country—on the 100th anniversary of our Republic. Yes, the regime of probability has arrived in the country, but this arrival is not new.