Does the AK Party Need to Stir Up the CHP?

It is often said that there was a sterile candidacy debate that Erdoğan used to corner the opposition before the 2023 elections. Naturally, Erdoğan and his massive propaganda machine, in addition to touting his own skills to demonstrate that he is more adept at governing the country than his political rivals, also constantly reiterate the incompetence of the opposition. One dimension of this is emphasizing that the opposition cannot focus on the country's problems because it is preoccupied with internal power struggles. Let me remind you that as a result of the power struggle that culminated in Akşener leaving the table immediately after the earthquake, Erdoğan uttered the following sentences, which, despite all the incompetence of his government after the earthquake, made him the lesser of two evils compared to the opposition:

Where were we at the moment this collapse occurred? We were in a meeting at Dolmabahçe with about 110 scientists and the authorized ministers of our party on this issue. Because we are concerned with saving lives. There is an earthquake event in Turkey. There is a situation that is a disaster of disasters. And how do we prevent this disaster, how do we clear this wreckage as soon as possible, and in their place, as I told my people, give us 1 year...

We are concerned with saving lives, while they are concerned with material gain.

We have all witnessed, of course, that the candidacy struggle within the opposition was fueled by the ruling party. However, the candidacy struggle within the opposition was not started by the ruling party, but by opposition politicians who were vying for the same seat. In other words, the ruling party did not start a fight that did not exist; it further ignited a fight that was already present within the opposition. Indeed, this is the nature of politics: you throw punches at your opponent's soft underbelly.

So, what was the result of this? Instead of talking about the real problems of society and developing simple and realistic solution proposals for them, the opposition engaged in candidacy and seat bargaining as if the election had already been won. In the end, this image provided tremendous material for the ruling party's propaganda apparatus. All channels, including TRT, produced documentaries describing the "instability" of the 90s, when 11 coalitions were formed, and made society prefer Erdoğan's singularity against the fragmentation of the opposition.

Where am I trying to get with this? Of course, to that well-known debate that took place at the CHP Congress... From the moment I went to Ankara a few days before the congress, I observed the presidential candidacy race within the CHP and the tension created by this race. Indeed, while the congress had not yet convened, I stated in a television program I attended on Thursday evening that Erdoğan would heat up this race again, just as he did before the 2023 elections, but that whether or not to fall for this game was in the hands of the CHP, although I observed that this race had already begun in appearance. In response to these statements, a former CHP mayor who was present on the broadcast stated that there was no such struggle in the party and that this agenda was imposed by the AK Party. In response, I stated that denying factual reality would not solve the problem, but rather increase it, and that if things continued this way, this struggle would cause a conflict in front of the public very soon.

As a result, two days later, that debate that you are all aware of took place. Even the debate itself, which took place in front of the public, was a major communication disaster in its own right. Even if there was no intent, how can a party that notifies Mansur Yavaş in a rush an hour in advance to give a speech, especially when "new institutionalization" has been emphasized throughout the entire congress, convince society that it will institutionalize and govern the country? Or, again, while the message "They are trying to pit us against each other, but we won't fall for it" has been given throughout the entire congress, how can a party that pits its two potential—and competing—presidential candidates against each other in front of the entire society strengthen the perception that it can govern the country without fighting or bickering?

Moreover, this debate is beyond a simple fight over whether or not to give a speech... As I stated above, this is a presidential candidacy race. We already know İmamoğlu's intention on this matter. However, Yavaş is also trying to generate social consent on this issue with an image that criticizes the party's policies.

In this direction, Yavaş made important statements at two meetings where Özgür Özel was also present. First, at the Ankara Provincial Advisory Board Meeting, referring to the HDP and HÜDA-PAR, he said:

Our National Holidays are being celebrated, there are two parties that do not celebrate them! If we cannot find common ground on our National Holidays and Religious Holidays, there is a problem here.

I think distance should be kept from them as well.

Then, in that speech at the congress where he expressed his grievances, this time referring to the same actors, he said the following:

Distance must definitely be kept from those who have a problem with our National Anthem and our flag.

They are no different from those who say "Let the Greeks win"!

An important question arises here: What happened all of a sudden to Mansur Yavaş, who generally does not make statements regarding national politics? What happened that he started to draw an image that drifted contrary to his party's policy?

As far as I can see, Yavaş is creating a legitimate ground for a formula where he would compete against the CHP's candidate if he cannot be the CHP's candidate. That is, in such a situation, Yavaş;

1- Will target the opposition base that is uncomfortable with the CHP's rapprochement with the HDP by stating that he is uncomfortable with the party's "closeness to the HDP" and that this is why he set out on the path of candidacy.

2- Will target the ruling party voters who are uncomfortable with the alliance the People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) has formed with HÜDA-PAR.

3- When asked "Why didn't you criticize these when you were in the CHP," he will be able to say, "I criticized them even when the Chairman was there."

Therefore, if it comes to this and CHP executives stubbornly deny factual reality, the CHP, which draws a center-party image with the Özel-İmamoğlu-Yavaş synthesis and received approval from the voters in the local elections, will see this synthesis crack. It will draw an image that has not received the message given by the voters in the local elections: "Since you are aspiring to govern the country, come on, prove yourself to me without causing fights and noise." In such an image, one cannot help but say, "What need is there for the AK Party's mixer..."