Time for a revolution in urban transformation

As Istanbul residents, we had a distressing experience with a 6.2 magnitude earthquake on our National Sovereignty Day. In seismology, magnitude is used as a measure of the energy released, while intensity is used as a criterion for the damage caused by an earthquake.

The power (intensity) of an earthquake is calculated using the Richter scale based on the explosive power released, much like how we use horsepower for cars.

There is more than a 10-fold difference in intensity alone between the expected Istanbul Earthquake, which is anticipated to be at least 7.2, and a 6.2 magnitude earthquake. Furthermore, the duration of an earthquake is also very influential in the damage that occurs. The April 23 earthquake lasted only 13 seconds. In contrast, the 7.8 magnitude Pazarcık earthquake lasted 65 seconds, and the 7.6 magnitude Elbistan earthquake lasted 45 seconds. In other words, we experienced a trailer of a trailer.

Construction costs have cornered everyone. No one would choose to live in an earthquake-vulnerable house if they had the means. Loss of life in an earthquake is mostly an economic, that is, a class-based situation. Construction costs are at a level that cannot be met by a vast majority of the public. Houses given to contractors in exchange for land are no longer just shrinking by half; contractors are also demanding millions of liras in cash payments.

With the change in urban transformation legislation that came into effect on November 8, 2024, decisions can now be made with a 51% majority instead of a 2/3 majority. This change, supposedly made to accelerate urban transformation, leads to the legal seizure of citizens' titled property. Likewise, according to the legislation, when a 51% majority is achieved, the properties of those who do not join this majority are put up for sale at the price determined by the administration, first to neighbors, and if no buyer emerges from the neighbors, to 3rd parties. Most urban transformation contracts involve large upfront payments. For this reason, people lose their real estate to their neighbors or the contractor for next to nothing at the price determined by the administration due to upfront payment amounts they cannot afford.

Citizens cannot afford the cost of building earthquake-resistant structures. In other words, if we continue with the current order, we will die. We have almost no public spaces such as parks, gardens, or sports areas. Our city's infrastructure is very inadequate. Our streets and avenues, that is, our urban planning, are terrible. In this state, the only economic solution left to save both our lives and our city is to rebuild the city as if the expected earthquake has already occurred and the city has been razed to the ground. We must accept the expected earthquake and the economic bottleneck as force majeure and carry out a revolution in zoning legislation. We must carry out urban transformation not on an apartment-by-apartment basis, but with the widest possible scope and planning.

Planning the city on a neighborhood basis, rather than on a parcel or block basis, is our only viable option. By redrawing structures, streets, avenues, and infrastructure from scratch, we can build neighborhood cities that include everything from green spaces and soccer/basketball fields to tennis courts. We can build massive public housing projects by adding enough housing and workplaces to the neighborhood's existing housing stock to cover the costs.

The name 'public housing' often evokes Soviet architecture, but we can realize this project in a square shape, like in Barcelona, leaving public space in the middle.

Independent of the earthquake, we already have to increase Istanbul's housing stock. We can use the extra housing built to cover the cost of this project. For example, if we plan a neighborhood with 5-story buildings in a contemporary way with 8-10 story square blocks, we would have renewed the buildings and infrastructure with the financing that would be generated, and created all the public spaces that people need.

As we saw in the April 23 earthquake, there is no green space in the city. There is no public space left. In a way, we are forced to have such a revolution.

Due to the cost per square meter, the membership/usage costs of areas where sports can be played, such as soccer/basketball fields, tennis courts, and gyms, have reached unaffordable levels. We have to recreate houses where we won't die, parks and gardens where we can have fun, in short, a contemporary city where we can live, and we have to endure the extra population that will finance these.

Also, since we give citizenship to foreigners who buy houses, let's at least make them finance the reconstruction of the city.