Will Syrian refugees return?

President Erdoğan, at the "Turkey's Migration Management Model in the Century of Turkey" program, reiterated once again that Syrian refugees will not be sent back. Expressing that he protected the Syrians who took refuge in Turkey in 2013 despite racism, provocations, and hate speech, he continued his speech as follows: “I would give up my throne, I would give up my crown, but I would never give up the oppressed who have taken refuge in my state. Whose words are these? Our ancestors'... We will not let this nation experience the shame of the 'Boraltan Bridge' tragedy ever again... We did not perceive migration in the sense they understand it; on the contrary, we perceived migration as the Hijrah from Mecca to Medina. We look at the issue of migration through the lens of our thousands-year-old civilization, our history, and the ancient values that make us who we are...”

The discourse of being 'Muhajir' and 'Ansar' in migration management

Is President Erdoğan's basing of the situation and future of Syrian refugees on the “Muhajir” (migrant) and “Ansar” (helper) paradigm at the Migration Management Directorate's program scientific and realistic in terms of “migration management”? At the point reached today, while the Syrian refugee crisis has become unsustainable in terms of our country's economic resources and social capacity, has the Ansar and Muhajir discourse provided a remedy for the problems experienced by Syrian refugees? Has it been able to solve the chronic problems for our citizens?

It will be remembered that millions of people died in the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011 with the 'Arab Spring' deception and turned into a multi-dimensional, multi-actor, regional and global equation, and a proxy war of imperial-colonial powers. A humanitarian drama unprecedented in history was experienced. A very large portion of the 22 million Syrian population lives in other countries today. According to official and unofficial records, 4 million Refugees/Asylum Seekers/Irregular Migrants with different statuses live in Turkey. Let us remind you that even though a new administration has come, the tension between ethnic and sectarian groups and the war continue in different regions.

With the relative end of the Syrian civil war and the coming to power of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)/Syrian National Army (SNA), the question of whether Syrians can return to their countries has become the question that the Turkish public is most curious about. In public opinion polls conducted, 8 out of every 10 people on average want Syrians to return to their country. The number of those who have permanently returned to their countries with the end of the war remains uncertain. Although official sources state that 200 thousand people have returned to Syria, when it is taken into account that 3 million Syrians live in our country, this number is undoubtedly far from satisfying the public.

Our internal migration story is painful

As is known, the Anatolian lands are always located on the longest and oldest migration route, are at the intersection point of three continents, and are the scene of major migration mobility due to the painful nature of the geography they are in. It is a known fact that the Anatolian geography has hosted people from 72 nations. It is not just migrations from outside; we also have an endless migration story inside. The migration that flowed incessantly from East to West, from small villages to big cities in the 1950s, 80s, and 90s, created a massive shantytown planet in the metropolises. Anatolia was emptied. Governments and local administrations still experience various difficulties in producing solutions to the economic, social, and cultural problems caused by internal migration. It is enough to think about just the earthquakes and the urban transformation that has turned into a never-ending story.

Under these circumstances, the bloody civil war in Syria in 2011, followed by the wave of migration towards our country, led to new, inextricable problems. Turkey hosted 2 out of every 3 Syrian refugees in the Middle East. We have practically turned into the world's and the Middle East's largest refugee warehouse at the gates of Europe. It is not difficult to estimate the destruction and negative effects created by rapid and uncontrolled refugee migration. Also, consider the economic and social cost of this.

A new 'habitus' of Syrians has formed in cities

A new 'cultural-sociological Syrian habitus' has formed on the outskirts of large cities in Turkey. This situation increases the risk of ghettoization and social exclusion and makes the local integration process difficult. In the last 12 years, nearly 1 million Syrian babies have been born in our country. Nearly 1 million Syrian children are receiving education in public schools. At least one child in every family goes to school. Approximately 1 million 200 thousand Syrians are actively working in Turkey. The majority of those working are unregistered. There are around 60 thousand Syrian university students studying in Turkey. These numbers strengthen the ties and sense of belonging of Syrians to Turkey and weaken the tendency to return. This situation, in turn, increases the anger of the Turkish society.

In 2022, we conducted a sociological study with Syrian refugees living in İzmir. In the study, we aimed to determine the socio-demographic and economic profiles of the refugees, their life satisfaction, the problems they face, their adaptation (integration) processes, their perception of the future, and their tendencies to return to Syria. Two important trends stand out in the research. First, Syrians have formed a new “sociological layer (habitat)” with the increase in the duration of their stay on the outskirts of cities, in dilapidated neighborhoods, and in rural areas in Turkey. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Syrian ghettos have formed in cities. The second important finding is that one out of every 2 Syrians stated that they would not return to their country even if the war ended.

It is useful to take a look at some of the striking 'socio-demographic' findings of the research. The education level of the Syrians who took refuge in our country is very low. 48 percent of the survey participants have primary school or lower education. The high proportion of children outside the school system carries very serious risks for the future. The compulsory school system needs to be strengthened so that Syrian children do not turn into lost generations. The illiterate adult population is noteworthy. One out of every two Syrians is a child or young person. The number of people per household is above the Turkey average. “Tent life” is common, especially among those working as agricultural laborers in villages and towns. Early marriage is high among girls. The rate of “polygamous marriages” is not negligible. 9 percent of the participants are in a two-wife marriage; 3 percent are in a 3-wife marriage. The fact that Syrian refugees have life experiences that make their adaptation to Turkish society difficult hinders integration efforts.

A very significant percentage of Syrians in Turkey have a tendency not to return even if the war in Syria has ended. Permanence is in the nature of migration. The large size of the child and young population increases the problems of adaptation and living together. The expectation in the Turkish society that Syrians will return is also gradually decreasing.

With the situation as it is, while official voices encourage them to stay and the tendencies to return are weak, it is a dream to expect that refugees will return to their countries in masses in a very short time. For this reason, there is a need for a new migration, immigrant, refugee, and asylum seeker paradigm that includes legal sanctions to facilitate the voluntary, safe, and dignified return of Syrian citizens after the necessary institutional, economic, and diplomatic measures are taken.