Energy and national security

Turkey is a country dependent on foreign energy. This dependency, which reaches up to 95 percent in oil and natural gas, creates vulnerabilities not only in the economy but also in foreign policy and national defense. High dependency on a single source (such as oil or natural gas) and a single country (Russia) for energy supply manifests its effects in many areas. Therefore, resource diversification is essential in terms of both raw materials and supplier countries. 

Because Turkey has been unable to determine and implement a state policy or a national policy regarding energy, this situation has led to both a loss of time and a waste of resources. Domestic resources like coal have not been utilized efficiently enough, and there has been a delay in integrating renewable sources such as wind and solar power. This situation has increased dependency and multiplied the energy bill, and the high energy bill has become the most significant cause of the current account deficit. 

Energy is a fundamental requirement for production, development, and sustainable growth in the economy, as well as for citizens' housing, heating, nutrition, and the continuity of public services. Therefore, there are criteria for energy access such as speed, security, continuity, affordability, and environmental friendliness. Not only is Turkey not at the desired level in these areas, but the high rate of loss and theft in energy distribution is also a significant problem.  

In addition to all of this The energy sector is fragile. It is immediately, directly, and easily affected by political problems, economic crises, diplomatic tensions, and geopolitical friction. Pandemics, conflicts in the Middle East, and global economic crises are immediately reflected in the energy sector. Due to its geography and geopolitical position, Turkey is also rapidly affected by these developments as it is a neighbor to many areas of tension. 

Furthermore, the struggle to gain control over energy resources and transit routes has caused intense, deep, dirty, and bloody conflicts in international relations for the last 200 years, and continues to do so. Following oil, natural gas has also taken its place on the foreign policy agenda as a strategic resource. In this context, even though Turkey is not energy-rich, it is closely involved in energy debates both because it is an important transit route and because it is surrounded by energy-rich countries. Because it is surrounded by regions that are very rich in terms of energy resources, such as the Middle East, the Caspian Basin, Central Asia, the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Because, as a country at the center of Eurasia, it is an important transit corridor. Because it is rich in important minerals such as boron and thorium. Because it attracts attention with its wind, solar, and geothermal energy resources.  

ENERGY AND GEOGRAPHY

Developments, tensions, and conflicts in Turkey's immediate vicinity are closely related to energy competition. Whether the subject is Iraq, Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus, Iran, or Libya, all these topics must necessarily be considered in conjunction with the struggle over energy resources and transit routes. Because Energy supply security is a whole with its economic, political, diplomatic, strategic, social, military, geographical, ecological, and security dimensions. Stability or instability in energy-supplying countries directly affects other countries, whether they are neighboring, transit, or consumer nations. 

In this respect, the competition over energy among powers such as the USA, Russia, the European Union, China, and India always ranks at the top of the agenda in world politics. In addition to NATO, which serves as an apparatus for US imperialism's aggression and occupation, many international organizations are closely involved in the production, transport, and security of energy. In this regard, the Turkish Straits (the Bosphorus, the Sea of Marmara, and the Dardanelles) cannot be considered independently of energy issues, even if ship traffic through them decreases. This includes the debates surrounding them, the differing approaches to the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits, the Kanal İstanbul Project, the US efforts to maintain a permanent presence in the Black Sea, the related attempts to make Georgia and Ukraine NATO members, the war in Ukraine, and Israel's brutality in Gaza. 

THE GROWING DEMAND OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

According to estimates by many research institutions, universities, and experts; By 2030, two-thirds of the increasing demand for energy will come from developing countries, primarily those in Asia. Due to the relationship between energy demand and economy, production, and development, existing tensions—particularly in the Middle East, the Eurasian geography, and the Asia-Pacific region—will further escalate. Competition regarding both production and consumption will sharpen. New actors will join this game. The U.S. will make new moves to both break Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas and ensure that Russia, a major energy supplier whose largest revenue item consists of natural gas and oil sales, suffers a loss of income. It will further increase its political, diplomatic, economic, and military pressure to ensure that the energy resources of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East are delivered to Europe more easily, quickly, and cheaply. 

Russia, on the other hand, will respond to U.S. attacks and will not take a step back, as it successfully uses its energy card not only economically but also politically and diplomatically. China, the world's fastest-growing economy, which stands out with its high energy consumption and external dependence on energy, will continue to both use its own resources and multiply and diversify its suppliers. The strategic relationship established by Russia and China against the U.S. is also important in this respect. Tensions between the U.S. and Russia, and the U.S. and China, will continue across a very wide geography, from the Black Sea to the Middle East, and from Africa to Latin America.   

In this context, it is expected that the South China Sea, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Central Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean, Africa, and the Arctic Ocean, which possess rich hydrocarbon deposits, will be the scene of much tougher energy-focused competition in the coming period. Likewise, due to the world's dwindling water resources, the tensions already being experienced will become even more severe. As the global pandemic has once again demonstrated, food security will gain an even more strategic dimension. 

What Turkey must do is to make a plan accordingly and determine the necessary strategies, keeping in mind that energy is a field that requires public priority and public planning. Because energy, alongside its other aspects, is also a matter of national security.