The disintegration of the Atlantic Alliance and imperialism

Among the prominent topics in recent discussions and polarization regarding foreign policy in Turkey, US imperialism stands out. While some argue that US imperialism maintains its power, others contend that it is in decline. This debate undoubtedly reflects an ideological polarization as well. 

To conduct the discussion on a sounder basis, we have political economy, history, and geopolitics in our toolkit. Let us discuss… 

As is known, historically speaking, the balance of power in the world changes every 100–150 years. This ebb and flow, this pendulum, this seesaw shifts between the West and the East. 

Geographically speaking, there are three continents that stand out in this ebb and flow: Asia, Europe, and America. When geography is examined in more detail and analyzed on a country-by-country basis, it is seen that the number of prominent states is not high. In the West, the UK, France, and the US stand out; in the East, China and Russia. 

From a geopolitical perspective, it is noteworthy that the balance of power has been shifting from the West to the East, from the Atlantic to the Pacific and Eurasia, for roughly the last 15–20 years. 

Germany, which is one of the world's 5 largest economies, is among the few countries that come to mind when one thinks of an industrial society, industrial culture, and industrial discipline, and which stands out with its technological infrastructure, is not on this list of states that have been prominent in the past. Germany, which participated in both world wars, lost both, yet rapidly recovered, developed, prospered, and industrialized after both defeats, could not stand out in vast geographies in the past like the UK and France because it completed its unification late, was late in the race for colonies, and could not become a large, effective naval power. Today, because it is not a major military power and does not possess nuclear weapons, it is not a political and diplomatic power commensurate with its economic, technological, scientific, and industrial strength. It is striving to become one. It also uses the European Union (EU) for this purpose. However, it has not yet fully achieved independence from the US.  

Countries like the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal, which were quite successful on the seas in the past, stood out in the race for colonies, and were prominent in trade, have not been able to stand out in today's fierce competition. Turkey and Iran, which have high imperial experience, civilizational accumulation, and state-building capabilities, are not the leading powers of the East today. Although a major power like Brazil in the West, in Latin America, and a major power like India in the East, in Asia, attract attention, it is impossible for them to have global ambitions for now. However, India is an ambitious country with its population surpassing China, its economic dynamism, growth rate, technological breakthrough, army, nuclear capacity, and close, balanced relations with the US, the UK, and Russia. It is a power that can change global balances in favor of the side it supports. 

THE US AND NATO

The US, which is a typical imperialist state when handled on a terminological and conceptual plane and holds the leadership of the Atlantic alliance, also uses NATO as an apparatus for aggression and occupation. The EU, on the other hand, is a power that benefits from the US security umbrella, does not have a large and powerful army, and derives its imperialist character from the countries that lead the union. If Germany, and then France, are excluded, the EU is far from being an effective international actor. In fact, it is clear that an EU without Germany and France cannot be a strong, effective, and attractive alliance. This weakness and ineffectiveness of the EU is a serious problem for the Atlantic alliance. Therefore, the US orbit in foreign policy and the NATO umbrella in defense and security policy are frequently questioned within the EU, especially by Berlin and Paris.

The influence of the US over its important allies such as Germany, India, Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia increases or decreases in certain periods depending on the subject and the conjuncture. This situation is also reflected in the reports of influential US think tanks. The powers of the UK and Israel, two strategic partners of the US, are also not enough to keep the US in the leadership seat. Therefore, the US is searching for more new allies in certain regions when certain problems arise compared to the past. In recent years, it has been deploying proxy forces, terrorist organizations, and regional actors to the front more often. It is withdrawing its troops completely or partially from many countries it has occupied or attacked. It is putting diplomacy and soft power into play more than in the past. All of these are a necessity for the US rather than a preference. Furthermore, US attacks and occupations are increasing anti-Americanism worldwide, especially in the Middle East.

The US, as emphasized in both its own national defense and strategy documents and in NATO documents and final communiqués, defines China and Russia as hostile powers, rival states, and countries that oppose and challenge US hegemony. This is because both China and Russia oppose the system led by the US, whose organizations it established and whose rules it set, and do not accept the US leadership, its initiative, and its imposition of its own priorities on the world. The rapprochement between China and Russia, and their alliances within the United Nations (UN) Security Council, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and BRICS, worry the US. 

The US, which defines Russia as an open military threat geographically close to Europe, and China as a major economic power and the main major threat, is concerned about the development of the Belt and Road project led by China and is doing its best to prevent it. The US efforts to encircle China and Russia from their immediate surroundings, its efforts to gain access to the Black Sea, the support it gives to Greece, the Greek Cypriot Administration, and Ukraine, its expansion of NATO with Finland and Sweden, its military buildup in Eastern Europe, and the alliances it has established in the Pacific against China (such as QUAD and AUKUS) and the military buildup it has carried out should be interpreted in this context. The war that broke out after it provoked Ukraine against Russia is directly related to this.     

The US attaches special importance to India in the context of its strategy to contain China. For this purpose, it has developed a special strategy called the Indo-Pacific Strategy. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor was also established for this purpose. However, despite all this, it has not been able to fully pull India into the US camp. Because even if there are significant problems between India and China, India has balanced relations with the US, the EU, and Russia. Even if it experiences tension with China, it has the historical, political, and diplomatic experience to avoid joining US anti-China projects and further escalating the existing tension. 

THE US ECONOMY IS DECLINING

From an economic perspective, while the US gross domestic product is close to 28 trillion dollars, its national debt is close to 34 trillion dollars (source: www.usdebtclock.org). This high debt is not sustainable. To survive economically, the US must fight, incite wars, arm itself, force other countries to arm themselves, and increase the revenue of the military-industrial structure, which is one of the country's locomotive sectors. Moreover, in recent years, the US has been losing its clear superiority in industry and technology and its monopoly position in certain sectors. 

From a social perspective, there are deep cracks and cultural fault lines in the US. The class divide is very deep. The tension between Republicans and Democrats is increasing. 

Parallel to the US losing its ability to deter, intimidate, and frighten the countries it sees as hostile/rival powers and states challenging US hegemony, and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, its leadership on a global scale is also being questioned. The reputation and legitimacy of organizations such as NATO, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organization, where the US is still in a leading position, are being questioned. 

Yes, the US is still the world's largest economy. However, in calculations made based on purchasing power parity, it has lost the top spot to China. When World War II ended, the US share of world output was nearly half; today, it has fallen to a quarter. Its clear, unrivaled superiority and monopoly position in industry and technology have ended. China, the US's biggest economic rival, is one of the US's 3 largest foreign trade partners, along with Mexico and Canada. The balance in trade between the US and China is overwhelmingly in favor of China. China is also the EU's largest foreign trade partner, and thanks to the size of its trade, investment, and foreign aid capacity, it is increasing its influence in a wide area from Latin America to the Middle East, and from Africa to Central Asia. China stands out as the largest foreign trade partner of many countries in these regions.  

China is taking significant steps in economic development, technological breakthrough, industrial development, and military power. The goals of the Communist Party of China (CPC) are briefly as follows: To make China a giant export country, a developed welfare society with a large and strong middle class, a major industrial, financial, and trade center with high domestic consumption and a large domestic market that attracts foreign capital, to make the Chinese currency (renminbi or yuan) a strong reserve currency widely used in international trade like the US dollar, and to make the Chinese Army a powerful, deterrent, and effective military force that uses the most advanced technology.   

Russia is not a major economic power like China. It is not among the world's 5 largest economies. However, it stands out with its energy exports, arms sales, and ability to build nuclear power plants. Since 2000, with Putin's leadership, Russia has reached a sphere of influence and diplomatic and political clout far beyond its economic, industrial, and technological power. The economic performance of Russia, which proved to be much more resilient than the West expected against the economic sanctions imposed by the West, led by the US, after the Ukraine-Russia war, has surprised Western experts. 

Furthermore, the US cannot prevent Russia and China from developing balanced relations with both Arab countries and Israel. It has not been able to gather Arab countries and Israel under an alliance umbrella and direct them to fight together against Iran. It could not establish an Islamic NATO, an Arab NATO, or a Middle East NATO in the region. It could not prevent China from being Ukraine's largest foreign trade partner before the Russia-Ukraine War, which began in February 2022. Considering Ukraine's close relationship with the US and the EU, its acting almost as a satellite of the US in the region, and its banning of the communist party in domestic politics, it is seen that China being Ukraine's largest foreign trade partner has a special meaning. 

The 3 biggest trump cards the US holds today are as follows: First, the dominance of the US dollar as a reserve currency on a global scale. Second, its defense budget exceeding 800 billion dollars and its military bases numbering 800 in about 150 countries around the world. Third, the US soft power and public diplomacy tools, from the widespread use of English to the film industry, from music to entertainment, from lifestyle to consumption habits, and from basketball to universities.   

In conclusion, the US cannot prevent its decline on the strategic plane, nor can it prevent its rivals from strengthening and forming alliances among themselves. In fact, even some countries that are allies of the US are questioning US influence and increasing their cooperation with US adversaries. The situation of the US reminds us of this iron law of history: 

Great powers do not leave the stage like gentlemen. Sometimes they leave by burning and destroying, sometimes they leave by planting problems that will create grounds for them to return later, and sometimes they leave by forming new alliances. However, it should not be forgotten that when needs change, alliances also change, and another alliance is formed against every alliance.