100 Years of the Republic of Turkey: A regional power emerging on the international stage

Is Germany jealous of us? Germany does not determine its state policy based on emotional words like jealousy, love, hatred, or admiration. Germany is not an excitable country that can make quick promises and act with a pivot policy strategy. It follows a cool-headed, detached, understated, and planned policy. Although its political stance is criticized by many countries, it is considered certain that it will play an important role in peace negotiations between Israel and Palestine with this cool-headed political behavior.

It is not a sign of patriotism for our national feelings to make us say, "Ours is the best country, all other countries are jealous of us." If demonizing and pushing away any country means falling behind the developments in that country, there is no acceptable side to this in terms of national interests.

Following the picture Turkey paints in the German press regularly with a rational perspective is important for understanding international political strategies.

ARD Istanbul Correspondent Markus Rosch conveys his impressions regarding October 29 in the details of his report on Tagesschau, Germany's mainstream news site, as follows:

TURKEY IS A COUNTRY IN A KEY POSITION NOT ONLY GEOGRAPHICALLY BUT ALSO POLITICALLY

The policy Turkey pursues in the international arena has been determined by President Erdoğan for years. The fact that Erdoğan determines his unpredictable political moves according to the current situation is described by experts as 'Pivot Policy' or '360-Degree Policy.' Turkey, which is in a key position not only geographically but also politically, both protects NATO's southeastern borders and possesses the alliance's second-largest army. While in such a position, Ankara knows very well how to use its relations with neighboring countries Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria to its advantage. The fact that negotiations for accession to the European Union have yielded negative results does not change the reality that Turkey plays an important role in Europe's security architecture.

TURKEY'S CONTRADICTORY STANCE AGAINST RUSSIA

Although Ankara condemns Russia's actions in Ukraine, it stands out as the only country within NATO that does not participate in sanctions. The political stances of Russian leader Vladimir Putin and President Erdoğan, who are in close relations with each other, also show similarities in this sense.

Turkey's behavior, which has taken an active but neutral position against the war Russia is waging in Ukraine, can be explained as follows:

• Turkey's dependence on Russian resources in critical sectors such as energy,
• Russia's support for the construction of Turkey's first nuclear power plant in Mersin,
• Multi-billion dollar arms deals between Ankara and Kyiv,
• The fact that the combat drones Ukraine uses for defense are Turkish-made.

On the other hand, thanks to this diplomatic stance, Erdoğan mediated a "grain deal" between the UN and the warring parties. Although the grain deal has been suspended, it is possible for Erdoğan to take on an important role again in potential negotiations.

DILEMMA RELATIONS WITH NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

Turkey, which supported opposition forces in Egypt and Syria during the 2011 Arab Spring, had its relations with these countries deteriorated. However, changing its strategy due to economic crises, Erdoğan initiated a diplomatic move and carried out economic agreements through a series of state visits. In July 2023, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates signed agreements totaling 50 billion dollars. Letters of intent were also drawn up with Saudi Arabia in various fields. Wanting to make a name for Turkey as a military power on the world stage, Erdoğan increased Ankara's foreign military engagements in countries such as Libya, Qatar, and Somalia.

A POLITICAL STANCE THAT DOES NOT RESEMBLE ATATÜRK

Displaying a policy exactly the opposite of Atatürk's, Erdoğan declares himself the protector of Muslims, risking public reactions. Behind this behavior lies the Arab world's support for Hamas. Upon this, Erdoğan, who rearranged his political stance, described Hamas militants as "freedom fighters" in reference to the massacres taking place in the Gaza Strip.

THE REASONS UNDERLYING ERDOĞAN'S SUPPORT FOR HAMAS

ARD Istanbul Correspondent Jannik Pentz summarizes the current situation from his own perspective in the details of his report, again on Tagesschau:

Immediately after the October 7 events, President Erdoğan proposed himself as a mediator for the resolution of the Middle East conflict. In a speech he gave in recent days, he described Israel as a "war criminal" and the terrorist organization Hamas as a "freedom fighter."

For a few days, a large banner with the words "Baby killer Israel" written in red paint in handwriting has been hanging in the middle of Istanbul. Right next to it, Israeli and Palestinian flags are waving. It is just one of the anti-Israel banners and graffiti. Such protests are frequently seen in Turkey in recent days. Antisemitic acts and anti-Israel demonstrations that have been on the rise in Turkey since October 7 are being tried to be used by Erdoğan for his own interests.

PRAISE IS SHOWERED ON HAMAS AS A 'SAVIOR'

Last Saturday, President of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan clearly revealed his position on the Middle East conflict. In a speech he gave in front of tens of thousands of his supporters in Istanbul, he defined Israel as a "war criminal" and accused Western states of failing to stop Israel.

A speech he gave at the AKP's parliamentary faction a few days earlier is in the same vein. Erdoğan praised Hamas by saying, "It is not a terrorist organization, but a group fighting for freedom." Immediately after the speech, the planned visit to Israel was canceled.

The Israeli government was not late in responding to the accusations. Jerusalem recalled its diplomats in Turkey last Saturday. Foreign Minister Eli Cohen stated on the X platform, "Due to the harsh statements coming from Turkey, I have ordered the return of our diplomatic representatives to re-evaluate the relations between Israel and Turkey."

WHEREVER THE WIND BLOWS, THE ROUTE TURNS THERE

Ömer Taşpınar from the Brookings Institution and the Turkish policy program Medyascope says, "When 1,400 people were being killed, Erdoğan could not defend Hamas, of course," regarding the October 7 events. However, the fact that thousands of people are losing their lives on the Palestinian front has changed the position of both the Turkish public and Erdoğan. Erdoğan looks at where the wind is blowing through polls and determines his local policy accordingly.

According to a poll conducted by the Metropoll Institute a week ago, the views of Turks on the Middle East conflict differ. While 34.5% of the participants want the Turkish government to remain neutral, 18.1% find it appropriate to support the Palestinian side as long as they stay away from Hamas. A segment of 11.3% demands support for Hamas. Only 3% of the participants want the Turkish government to side with Israel.

THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOCAL ELECTIONS

What is clear is that the anti-Israel rhetoric created by Erdoğan primarily appeals to the conservative Islamist voter base. In the local elections to be held at the end of March, the strategy Erdoğan is following may result in his favor.

However, Turkey's close relations with Hamas are not the result of a current strategy. Erdoğan has hosted representatives of this organization at the Presidential Palace many times in the past. Last July, Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh was officially hosted in Turkey.

Erdoğan, who held another meeting with Hamas leader Haniyeh two weeks ago to send aid to the Gaza Strip, also had another goal at that time: to assume a mediator role in peace negotiations. However, after the harsh criticisms he has made against Israel in recent days, it does not seem possible for Erdoğan to assume a mediator role.