Critical election in the TRNC

The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which declared its establishment on November 15, 1983, but has been recognized only by Turkey to date, will hold its 11th Presidential election. The Turkish Cypriot people will head to the polls on Sunday, October 19… (217 thousand 56 voters will cast their ballots at 777 polling stations)

The strongest candidate in the election is the current TRNC President and National Unity Party (UBP) candidate Ersin Tatar. Supported by the 'Common Sense Consensus' formed by the UBP, the Democratic Party (DP), and the Rebirth Party (YDP), Tatar states that the policies of 'sovereign equality' and the 'two-state solution model' will be pursued with firm steps in his second term.

The other prominent candidate is Tufan Erhürman, Chairman of the main opposition Republican Turkish Party (CTP). He is also supported by the Communal Democracy Party (TDP).

Independent candidate and academic Prof. Dr. Mehmet Hasgüler states that he has set out with a third-way option outside of the UBP-CTP.

The other candidates are as follows: Cyprus Socialist Party candidate Osman Zorba, independent candidate Arif Salih Kırdağ, independent candidate İbrahim Yazıcı, independent candidate Ahmet Boran, and independent candidate Hüseyin Gürlek.

In the previous Presidential election (the second round on October 18, 2020), Ersin Tatar received 51.74 percent of the votes and became the 5th President of the TRNC. The other candidate, Mustafa Akıncı, received 48.26 percent of the votes.

Let us recall; Rauf Denktaş, the Founding President of the TRNC and one of the iconic figures of the Turkish Cypriot struggle for freedom and independence, held this office by winning all elections held until 2005 following the first election in 1985 (where he received 70.2 percent of the vote). In 2005, CTP leader Mehmet Ali Talat, who advocated for a federation; in 2010, UBP leader Derviş Eroğlu, who advocated for an independent TRNC state and a two-state solution; and in 2015, Mustafa Akıncı, supported by the pro-federation CTP-BG and TDP, were elected President. Two names who competed as independents in the first round of the Presidential election on October 11, 2020; former Deputy Prime Minister and former DP leader Serdar Denktaş and People's Party leader and former Foreign Minister Prof. Dr. Kudret Özarsay have not announced their candidacies so far. It is a matter of curiosity whether these figures will run and whom they will support.

It appears that the race on Sunday, October 19, 2025, is expected to take place between Ersin Tatar and Tufan Erhürman.

THE FUTURE OF THE TRNC…

It is quite significant that President Ersin Tatar, who advocates for a two-state solution on the island with Turkey's support, has achieved a diplomatic success such as making the TRNC an observer member of the Organization of Turkic States during his tenure. On the other hand, the establishment of diplomatic relations at the Ambassadorial level by some Turkic states with the Greek Cypriot Administration has emerged as a negative development.

Stating that the Turkish Cypriot people will never be left without a state or a Republic and that this honorable struggle will be continued together, Ersin Tatar shares the view: “We are loyally committed to our state and our people. With the support of the Republic of Turkey, our greatest goal is to carry the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is located in the heart of the Blue Homeland, to a more prosperous future.”

Opposed to the federation model, Tatar, a leader who favors a two-state solution based on sovereign equality against single sovereignty and the end of Turkey's guarantorship, is the strongest candidate in the election.

The other candidate, CTP leader Tufan Erhürman, is a representative of the politics in the line of Mehmet Ali Talat-Mustafa Akıncı. Erhürman, who favors a federation on the island, is a lawyer by profession. Erhürman was also a candidate in the Presidential election 5 years ago, receiving 21.7 percent of the vote in the first round.

‘THE HEART OF THE BLUE HOMELAND’…

It is clear that there is a need to conduct a more effective struggle in every field, especially in diplomacy, regarding the acceptance of an equal-status and two-state structure on the island and the recognition of the TRNC. With the developments in our region, the way to be strong, especially in the Eastern Mediterranean, lies in protecting Cyprus. Located at a central point due to its position; the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus, which draw attention with their historical, political, geopolitical, strategic, and economic aspects, also whet the appetite of imperialist countries with their energy resources. The power struggle here is being carried to other dimensions with the involvement of global powers in the issues.

It is observed that Turkey, which has the longest coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean with its 569 nautical miles of coast, has increased its effectiveness in the region in the recent period despite international developments and some mistakes made.

With the 'Blue Homeland doctrine,' for which retired Admiral Cem Gürdeniz is the namesake, it is seen that Turkey has begun to take a more active role in the Eastern Mediterranean in terms of its national interests.

The importance of Cyprus here and the existence and geopolitical position of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus are also being understood more clearly with each passing day.

It becomes even more important to evaluate and read the Presidential election to be held in the TRNC on Sunday, October 19, 2025, from this perspective as well…

Book recommendation: Competition in the Eastern Mediterranean - Defense Diplomacy Energy (Ed: Şenol Çarık)