The messages of March 31 and what comes next...

The March 31 local elections marked a historic turning point. The CHP finished the election with 37.7 percent, and the AKP with 35.49 percent. The AKP, which has been in power since 2002, lost an election for the first time. Its vote share fell to the level it received in the November 3, 2002 elections (34.3 percent).

The CHP, on the other hand, finished an election in the lead for the first time since 1977. Let us note; because the CHP was closed down during the September 12, 1980 coup, the SHP, which was established at that time, had participated in the 1989 elections with 28.71 percent. The SHP had won municipalities in 39 out of 67 provinces.

For days, the same question has been asked: Did the CHP win the election, or did the AKP lose it?

Let us evaluate based on the data:

In the March 31, 2024 local elections, 78.11 percent of the 61 million 441 thousand 882 registered voters went to the polls.

In the March 31, 2019 local elections, the turnout rate was 83.88 percent.

The turnout rate, which was 90.53 percent in the May 14, 2023 General and Presidential elections, was 83.88 percent in the second round of the Presidential Election on May 28, 2023.

Returning to the present day; compared to the last election, the turnout rate decreased by 5.77 percent.

It is estimated, based on the turnout rates and votes received in the municipalities where the AKP lost, that a large portion of these voters were those who voted for the AKP in the last election. It is stated that this also played an important role in the CHP's success. However, explaining it as the only factor would be incomplete.

On May 14, 19 million 387 thousand 372 people voted for the AKP, a rate of 36.3 percent. On March 31, 2024, this number was 16 million 339 thousand 771, a rate of 35.48 percent. Because the turnout rate dropped, the decrease of approximately 3 million votes corresponds to approximately 1 percent proportionally when compared to the previous election.

Moving from here, it is seen that approximately 30 percent of the voters who voted for the AKP in the last election cast their votes for other parties, primarily the New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi) and the CHP.

It is a common consensus that the majority of first-time voters also voted for the CHP. CHP Chairman Özgür Özel also stated in his post-election remarks that young people voted primarily for their party.

When the election results are evaluated in terms of political parties, it is a fact that after the CHP, the biggest winner was the New Welfare Party, led by Fatih Erbakan. It increased its vote from 2.8 percent to 6.9 percent. It won 1 metropolitan, 1 provincial, and 39 district municipalities. Erbakan took a risk by entering the election alone and won. From now on, he has created a party in politics that can be an alternative for voters who have broken away from the AKP and can fill the vacant space. Erbakan's decision may have been influenced by seeing the AKP's decline and seeing that the Felicity Party (Saadet Partisi) became ineffective and its base broke away as a result of the elections it entered under the CHP umbrella. Let us not forget to mention that Erbakan's rhetoric is even more conservative than the AKP's, especially on issues of secularism, civil law, women's rights, and animal rights.

The third party that increased its votes in the election is the Victory Party (Zafer Partisi), led by Ümit Özdağ. It achieved a vote rate of 2.56 percent. On May 14, this rate was 2.23 percent. Perhaps expectations were higher, and it did not win any municipalities, but the fact that a nationalist party whose rhetoric is directed towards the general election and the defense of the country's integrity and founding values maintained and slightly increased its votes in a local election holds meaning for the upcoming period.

When we look at other parties; the MHP's vote, which was 10.3 percent, fell to 4.99 percent; the DEM Party (HDP)'s vote, which was 8.9 percent, fell to 5.7 percent; the IYI Party's vote, which was 9.9 percent, fell to 3.77 percent; and the Felicity Party's vote, which was 1.9 percent, fell to 1.09 percent. When we add up the other parties of the Table of Six—DEVA, Future (Gelecek), and Democrat Party—they do not even amount to 1 percent.

The socialist left is far from what it expected. The Left Party (Sol Parti) won 1 district and 1 town, the TİP won 1 district and a district municipality it supported independently... Kadıköy and Defne, which were entered with high expectations, could not be won. And what happened in Hatay is obvious. I will address this topic in a separate article.

Let us go back to the beginning and reinterpret the question: The AKP lost, and as a result, the CHP won!

Citizens who are overwhelmed by the course of events, who oppose the abandonment of the country's founding values and principles, and who are against the economic crisis in particular, have said stop to the government!

Because it is a local election, it carries the nature of a warning. But its meaning goes beyond a local election!..

Retirees condemned to hunger with a 10 thousand lira salary, those crushed by the high cost of living, mothers who send their children to school without a lunchbox, young people worried about their future, women who do not want to be condemned to darkness, citizens, millions who want justice in retirement, victims of internships and apprenticeships who were detained by force at rallies just because they wanted their start dates for work to be counted as the SGK start date, teachers who have not been appointed, farmers who cannot produce, those who cannot pay high rents, those who do not want the country to turn into a thoroughfare and want a safe life, those who do not want the country's underground and above-ground assets and citizenship to be sold to foreigners for dollars, millions who do not want to be condemned to misery and hopelessness just so a happy minority can become even richer...

And those who cannot reconcile with their conscience the continuation of trade with Israel while saying 'We support Palestine, we stand with them'...

Actually, as a result of this election, citizens did not show a 'yellow card', they showed a red card! In addition to the metropolitan cities where the economic crisis is felt most deeply, administrations in many provinces and districts in the Aegean, Central Anatolia, Marmara, and the Black Sea regions passed into the hands of the CHP.

Yes, on March 31, the voter largely supported the party and candidate they saw as strong against the government. They showed what they did not want. They gave an opportunity. Now it is the turn of the parties that received the message...

The shock of the results lasted for 1 week. I do not know if there is anyone who still cannot believe it!

We will all experience and see the effects of the election in the coming period...

On this occasion, is it not time to talk about returning to the parliamentary system?