Confiding in artificial intelligence during a weather-related flight cancellation...

On a cold and sunny İzmir morning, while I was on my way to the airport to fly to Istanbul, I received news that my flight had been canceled.

While Ajet could not operate its İzmir-Istanbul flight, how was Pegasus able to fly?

And why was this cancellation announced at the very last minute?

I jumped on a Pegasus Airlines flight with the happiness of being able to buy one of the last 3 remaining tickets for a flight 1 hour after my canceled one. We landed at Sabiha Gökçen Airport with a smooth flight, without any problems.

Could weather conditions be an excuse for some airlines not to fly?

Why do we always experience such complications in this country?

Why are we forced to be skeptical?

Why are we afraid to ask the question "why"?

Why have we lost faith in everything?

Why are we trapped in the spirit of "there is nothing to be done"?

Why have we become so cold to so much injustice, irresponsibility, and impunity?

Why can't we be as brave as the people of Serbia or Greece?

Why can't we be one heart and one voice in the face of injustices and hold those responsible to account?

Where are we heading?

With crazy questions in my head, I confided in artificial intelligence.

-Hey IO, where is Turkey heading?

"As of February 2025, Turkey's political situation presents a complex picture in light of current developments, public opinion trends, and regional dynamics," it replied.

What is this complex picture?

"I can make this assessment based on current data and information obtained from reliable sources. However, instead of determining a definitive direction, I will offer an analysis based on possible trends and topics of discussion.

The Position of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AK Party;

   - President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan still appears to be a strong leader in 2025, and the AK Party is using developments in Syria (the overthrow of the Assad regime and Turkey's role) as a political success. According to public opinion polls conducted at the end of 2024, there is information that the AK Party's votes have increased and the party has returned to first place. However, according to a 2024 survey by the Pew Research Center, the majority of the Turkish public (approximately 60%) views Erdoğan negatively, which may indicate an erosion in his popularity.

   - Erdoğan's discussions on a "new constitution" and unlimited candidacy are receiving harsh criticism from the opposition. The opposition sees these moves as an attempt to extend Erdoğan's political life, but no concrete development has occurred on this issue yet (it is stated that the new constitution table could not be established in the first months of 2025).

2. The State of the Opposition

   - The CHP became the leading party for the first time in 47 years in the March 31, 2024 local elections, and this was an important source of morale for the opposition. However, some cracks are visible in the opposition front in 2025. For example, Meral Akşener's meeting with Erdoğan and the discussions within the IYI Party make opposition unity difficult. On the other hand, CHP leader Özgür Özel's process of determining his party's presidential candidate through a primary election to be held on March 23, 2025, stands out as a historic step.

   - The DEM Party's meetings with Abdullah Öcalan and MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli's overtures on this issue have the potential to start a new dialogue process on the Kurdish issue, but this process has not yet matured and is creating debate among political circles.

3. Polarization and Social Divisions

   - According to the Pew survey, the Turkish public thinks that conflicts between different political parties, ethnic identities, and religions are strong. This shows that there is deep polarization in Turkey's political climate. Some posts on the X platform also reflect concerns such as authoritarianism, oppression, and the decline of democracy, but such expressions are not definitive data, they only express an existing perception in the public.

   - The removal of 10 opposition mayors from office after the local elections and the appointment of trustees in their place is seen as a democratic regression according to the posts of some X users, but since these claims are not supported by concrete data, a definitive judgment cannot be reached.

4. Economic and Foreign Policy Dynamics

   - Turkey's political direction is closely related to the economic situation. At the beginning of 2025, the dollar exchange rate is hovering around 36 TL and inflation is still high (according to TUIK, 2024 inflation is 39.38%). These economic difficulties can affect the public's political preferences and damage the AK Party's popularity.

   - In foreign policy, Turkey is trying to strengthen its position as a regional power with developments in Syria (playing an active role in the post-Assad process) and mediation efforts in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts. A possible visit by Erdoğan to Damascus in 2025 and the return of Syrian refugees could be decisive in both domestic and foreign policy. In addition, there is an expectation of a new dialogue in Turkey-US relations with Donald Trump's second presidential term in the US.

5. Possible Directions and Scenarios;

   - Authoritarianism and Centralism:

According to some analyses, the AK Party led by Erdoğan tends to maintain the strong leadership model. Discussions on a new constitution and pressure on the opposition may point to a trend in this direction, but the public's increasingly negative perception may make this process difficult.

   - Democratization and Dialogue: MHP leader Bahçeli's overture towards Öcalan and the DEM Party's dialogue processes may create hope for a solution to the Kurdish issue. However, this process may be painful due to polarization in domestic politics.

   - Strengthening of the Opposition: The CHP's local election success and the primary election process show that the opposition can prepare for the 2028 elections in a more organized manner. However, divisions within the opposition may overshadow this advantage.

   - Economic difficulties can change the public's political preferences and strengthen the opposition's hand. However, the AK Party's efforts to gain support with populist policies such as the return of Syrian refugees may also be effective.

Conclusion?

Turkey's political direction is shaped by both internal and external dynamics in 2025. Although the dominance of the AK Party and Erdoğan continues, the public's negative perception, economic difficulties, and the opposition's organizational efforts create uncertainty.

While concerns about polarization and authoritarianism continue, issues such as dialogue on the Kurdish question and the situation of Syrian refugees may affect political balances. It is difficult to determine a definitive direction, but it can be said that Turkey is seeking a balance between democratization, economic stability, and regional leadership this year. How these trends will evolve until the 2028 elections depends largely on economic developments, successes in foreign policy, and dialogue processes in domestic politics. Information on the web and sentiment analysis on X reflect this complex picture, but more data is needed over time for definitive results.

As you can see, even artificial intelligence practices self-censorship when it comes to Turkey and politics!

What should we do? :)