An Isolated Ukraine

The BBC published an article a week ago titled “Ukraine could face defeat in 2024,” which explained the reasons that could lead to Ukraine's defeat in the near future. It is assumed that Russia will launch a major offensive this summer aimed at breaching Ukrainian defense lines. One of Russia's biggest goals is the capture of the city of Kharkiv, which has been bombed repeatedly and is located just 29 km from the Russian border. With a population of approximately 1.5 million, Kharkiv is the second-largest city after Kyiv and remains a difficult city to conquer. However, if the Russians succeed in capturing this important city, it would be a huge blow to the morale of Ukrainians and to the country's economy as a whole. The mayor of Kharkiv believes that if air defense systems are depleted, his city faces the risk of becoming a “second Aleppo.” The article in the BBC states that Russia's strategic goal may not be territorial, but rather a psychological-moral one, by crushing the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians. Once the Russians achieve this goal, they will convince Ukraine's Western supporters that this war is a lost cause.

So why would such an article be published in the Western press? Because there are enough reasons to think that Ukraine, which has become very vulnerable, could lose this war. For several months, it has become increasingly clear that Ukraine is suffering from a serious shortage of ammunition, well-trained soldiers, and air defense systems. Ukrainian cities are bombed almost every day, and Ukraine no longer has missile defense systems to protect its airspace. The $60 billion in financial aid promised by the US last year has not yet been voted on in the US Congress. The promise to vote on this aid package is reiterated by the Biden administration. However, for now, only promises remain for the Ukrainians.

Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel once again showed that Western countries are acting with double standards. The US, French, and British air forces managed to repel Iran's attacks on Israel, which is not a NATO member like Ukraine. This led to a wave of anger and resentment among Ukrainians. At the same time, it created disappointment. Angered by what happened, President Zelensky stated that only the political will of NATO states would be enough to protect Ukraine.

However, the White House stated that the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine are completely different, and therefore the aid Washington provides to Ukraine and Israel and the US intervention in the conflicts in the two regions of the world cannot be the same. Meanwhile, Zelensky signed a controversial mobilization law that allows for new mandatory conscriptions to come into effect in Ukraine. There is a major personnel shortage in Kyiv. Many Ukrainians left the country shortly after the war began. In October 2023, when the war between Israel and Hamas began, the war in Ukraine remained in the shadow of public attention. If the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates, it may remain in the shadows again. This would be to the advantage of Russia, which is already in a very good position on the battlefield. Here, we are talking not only about the attention Western leaders will show to Israel, but also about the military and logistical support that could be given to Israel in a way that would please Russia.

Unfortunately, Ukraine is currently at a disadvantage in many respects. According to the media in Ukraine, the ratio of forces to the number of soldiers on the battlefield varies between one to seven and one to ten in favor of the Russians. Ukraine is facing a serious shortage of soldiers. The lack of ammunition, the lack of Patriot missiles and other anti-aircraft missiles will greatly affect the balance of power on the battlefield, and Ukraine will suffer even greater losses in the near future.

In conclusion, Ukraine is in its most fragile and problematic state since the beginning of the war. The vulnerabilities I mentioned above and the delay in US aid will make it impossible to repel a Russian offensive. Russia can take advantage of these conditions, and it should surprise no one if it achieves victory in this war or at least reaches its goal of breaking the fighting spirit of the Ukrainians. What is certain is that May 9, “Victory Day,” which Russia celebrates with a military parade in Moscow's Red Square, is approaching. Russia may think this is a suitable opportunity to take advantage of this situation and show its latest successes on the battlefield to the whole world.