Are peace negotiations possible as the war spreads?

When the war in Ukraine began in February 2022, and the courage of the Ukrainian army prevented the Russians from conquering the capital, Kyiv, in "3 days," most Western leaders and the public were almost certain that Ukraine would win the war. It was believed that economic sanctions could bring the Russian economy to its knees and that possible protests against the government within Russia would stop its desire to expand westward, toward Ukraine. Two and a half years have passed since the start of the war, and the picture we have is not optimistic at all. More and more commentators are saying that Ukraine is losing this war. For this reason, according to Western leaders, in addition to the financial aid the US provides to Ukraine, the only remaining solution is to allow the Ukrainian army to expand this war into Russian territory. Ukraine is now in a position to attack Russian territory with NATO weapons. However, the Kremlin says this is a "red line" and that if it is crossed, it will lead to serious consequences. One of these is the use of nuclear weapons, which Russia has long threatened the world with.

Ukraine had attacked Russia's Belgorod region with missiles and drones, and if Ukrainian attacks continue, there is a risk that this region will become the scene of a bloody war between the two countries. For two and a half years, Ukraine was prohibited from using NATO weapons on Russian soil. Until now, Ukraine could only defend itself. While Russia was attacking Ukrainian territory, the Ukrainian army only had the right to retaliate within its own borders. Although it was psychologically difficult, Ukraine respected this decision imposed by Western countries. Had it violated the agreement, it would have faced the danger of Western countries stopping the supply of weapons.

The decision to allow Ukraine to attack Russian territory does nothing but further complicate the situation on the front. Why? Because one of the reasons put forward by those who have been watching this war from the beginning is that Ukraine's losing the war is triggered by the number of mobilized Russian soldiers being much higher than the number of Ukrainian soldiers. Even if Ukrainians use more advanced weapons, Ukraine's success in this war cannot be guaranteed due to the small number of personnel participating in the military operation. In a report titled with the striking headline from Bloomberg journalists, "Ukraine's shortage of manpower is hitting its wartime industry," it is stated that mobilization in Ukraine has led to a labor shortage in the country. Ukraine is currently facing a serious labor shortage. Experts fear that the personnel shortage will inevitably create a domino effect. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-01/ukraine-s-shortage-of-manpower-is-hitting-its-wartime-industry?srnd=homepage-europe) 

So, we can talk not only about the lack of a sufficient number of men who can be recruited in Ukraine but also about the labor shortage that will affect this country's economy in the long run. Turkey's stance on the West allowing Ukraine to attack Russia is very clear. The Turkish Foreign Minister stated, "We do not want NATO to be a part of this war. The war in Ukraine should not turn into a war between NATO and Russia." Despite this, according to the British newspaper The Telegraph, NATO is developing a series of "land corridors" to send American troops and weapons to the front lines in the event of a major land war with Russia, and one of these corridors starts from Turkey and extends through Bulgaria to Romania. 

On one hand, the war in Ukraine is expanding, but on the other hand, Switzerland will host the "Ukraine Peace Summit" on June 15-16, which 107 countries have agreed to attend. Russia, one of the parties to the war, was not invited to the Summit on the grounds that it rejected Zelensky's peace formula. In this sense, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented on the Summit as follows: “The Ukraine summit is an absurd event with no clear goals.” Discussing the issue of the conflict in Ukraine without the participation of Russia means setting goals that are not result-oriented. China will also not attend because, according to Chinese officials, this summit is illogical without Russia. However, even more surprising is that US President Biden will not attend the summit either, with the US being represented by Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. The Ukrainian leader has openly called on the US president to change his mind and "show leadership in promoting peace." 

While Ukraine seeks a peace solution with Russia, Russia says it is at war not with Ukraine, but with the collective West. Russia says it is fighting in Ukraine, but it is fighting not against Ukraine, but against the entire West. The latest data from the battlefield clearly indicate that the war could escalate and that peace talks will remain in the background despite the organization of the "Ukraine Peace Summit." As the well-known proverb says, “The butcher is worried about the meat (Russia and the West), while the sheep is worried about its life (Ukraine).”