On the brink of freezing: Energy, war, and blackmail

For the nearly 3 years since the start of Russia's war against Ukraine, Ukrainians have been affected by the consequences of the war not only directly but also indirectly every winter. This is because every winter, millions of Ukrainians are left without electricity following Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. While Russia targeted electricity distribution networks in previous years, it has changed its strategy this year, now launching attacks on energy production facilities. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, located in southeastern Ukraine and seized by Russian forces, provided approximately 20 percent of the country's electricity needs. The UN's independent international commission of inquiry on Ukraine stated that Russia's attacks on energy infrastructure are systematic and disproportionate, and constitute war crimes. 

Winter will be difficult for Ukrainians.  Ukrainian officials say that 18 GW of electricity is needed for the country's total consumption during winter days when temperatures drop below zero. However, only 12-13 GW can be supplied. 

Not only Ukrainians, but also citizens of the Republic of Moldova are facing the danger of freezing in the coming months. The Parliament of the Republic of Moldova had to declare a 60-day state of emergency in the face of the risk of gas supplies being cut off to the separatist Transnistria region, where a major power plant for electricity supply is located. Why was such a decision necessary? Because the dispute between Moldova and the Russian company Gazprom over 700 million dollars in debt, which Chisinau does not recognize, has still not been resolved. Ukraine also announced that its agreement with Russia regarding gas transit will expire on January 1, 2025, and will not be extended. To prevent a humanitarian crisis in the Republic of Moldova, Gazprom needs to distribute gas via an alternative route (through Turkey). 

Even before February 2022, the Kremlin began blackmailing by increasing the price of Russian gas, which led to a rise in energy prices across the European Union. 

The energy security of both Moldova and Ukraine is under Russia's economic and geopolitical pressure. Russia's acts of blackmailing former Soviet countries are used as part of the "Gerasimov Doctrine" launched in 2013. The doctrine states that if a state uses non-lethal (i.e., non-military) means in target areas such as the economy, energy, communication and data networks, and psychological operations, it can be less energy-intensive. It also mentions that energy can be transformed into a hybrid warfare tool. "In the 21st century, we are witnessing the blurring of the lines between war and peace. The role of non-military means in achieving political and strategic goals has increased and in many cases has surpassed weapons in terms of effectiveness." It also states that modern means of struggle are economic, political, informational, or humanitarian. Military means are not always a priority as they are only an addition to those listed above; this is the biggest and most important difference between the conflicts of the 20th century and the 21st century. 

Therefore, Russia's energy blackmail is part of a hybrid war consisting of a combination of simultaneous, flexible, and complex non-lethal military operations. The areas in which this war is conducted include the economy, energy grid, diplomacy, communication networks, the internet, and the press. 

Russia is a major energy supplier to Europe and Turkey's largest gas supplier.  It uses energy as a diplomatic weapon. A country that owns two-thirds of the world's 13 largest natural gas fields can afford to blackmail its neighbors during the winter months. Russia's revenue was generated from oil and natural gas, which accounted for a very large portion (45%) of the country's federal budget in 2021. However, of course, Russia uses the energy card not only to generate revenue for the state budget but also to force its "disobedient" neighboring states to remain within its sphere of influence. 

For Russia, the energy factor is a strategic weapon in its diplomatic relations with its neighbors. And it is quite successful in using this weapon. Energy often influences the fate of wars. 

We will all see whether (and how) the energy card will change the fate of the war in Ukraine this winter.