Russia between Israel and Iran

The situation in the Middle East is becoming more tense with each passing day. More and more analysts are talking about a full-scale war between Iran and Israel. In today's article, I have tried to answer the question of what position Russia would take if the two countries decided to attack each other. 

Newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time on October 11. The meeting took place in Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan, where a forum titled "The relationship between time and civilizations - The basis of peace and development" was held on the occasion of the 300th anniversary of the birth of Turkmen national poet Magtymguly Pyragy. 

President Putin invited the Iranian leader to the BRICS Summit to be held in Kazan on October 22-24, and the invitation was immediately accepted. We should note that Iran officially became a member of BRICS at the beginning of 2024 with the active support of Russia. In early September, Putin approved the signing of a strategic partnership agreement with Iran. In his meeting with Putin, the Iranian President accused Europe and the US of destabilizing the Middle East. 

Relations between Moscow and Tehran have strengthened since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine in 2022. The US and Europe are watching Moscow's growing relationship with Tehran with concern. While Washington accuses Iran of providing ballistic missiles to Russia for use in the conflict in Ukraine, Tehran denies this. 

Many television channels, such as CNN and Sky News, have reported that Iran has provided Russia with short-range ballistic missiles to be used in Ukraine. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that attempts to link cooperation between Moscow and Tehran to the conflict in Ukraine are aimed at legitimizing the West's continued supply of weapons to Kyiv. Russian officials say that the US wants Russia and Iran to sever all ties of cooperation, but that this will not succeed because "the cooperation has stood the test of time." 

On one hand, Putin seems to acknowledge Iran's retaliatory strike. However, on the other hand, he wants to prevent a serious escalation and the bombing of civilians in the retaliation. Because Israel is not Russia's greatest enemy.  However, Russia is interested in the tension in the Middle East. In this case, the attention of both the public and the world's leading actors will be turned to this region, not to the war in Ukraine. 

Russia's eyes have always been on the Middle East, so its interest in this region is not new. In the conflict between Hamas and Israel, Russia adopted a neutral stance toward the parties to the conflict, holding the US responsible for the catastrophe in Gaza. 

As long as Russia is deeply involved in the war in Ukraine, it is hard to believe that it could be involved in a final war in the Middle East.  The only thing Russia could do would be to provide weapons to Iran's proxy groups, such as Hezbollah or the Houthi militias.  We learn from various media sources that Iran has requested advanced air defense systems from Russia that could be used in a possible war with Israel. 

Russia does not want to be involved in a war between Iran and Israel. This would primarily affect Russia's relations with Iran. Infrastructure projects related to natural gas or the International North-South Transport Corridor will be affected by these relations. In general terms, Russia is pursuing two main goals in the Middle East region. The first is to continue importing weapons from Iran (imports it is dependent on to sustain the war in Ukraine). The second is to maintain its military presence in Syria. 

In addition to developing its relations with Iran, Russia also has old friendly relations with Israel.  There are more than a million Russian-speaking Israelis in Israel, and most of them arrived there in the 1990s. In fact, the close friendship between Russian President Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is also well known.  Despite the friendship, it did not prevent the Russian President from comparing the war in the Gaza Strip to the blockade of Leningrad during World War II. 

Moscow is embarking on a very complex and dangerous geopolitical balancing act in the Middle East. Russia's cooperation with Iran, which is its most important ally in the region but also Israel's number one enemy in the region, naturally disturbs Israel and puts it in a difficult position. At the same time, Russia clearly states that it does not want a leadership position in this region, but it definitely wants to be influential and for its economic, energy, and military interests to proceed without hindrance.