The asymmetric partnership between China and Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first foreign visit to China following his re-election and inauguration for a fifth term. The visit to China was undoubtedly not chosen by chance. It was a response to the gesture of friendship made by Chinese leader Xi Jinping last year. Xi Jinping's first visit in his last two terms had been to Moscow. Over the last 13 years, Putin and Jinping have met approximately 40 times in various formats. Before the war broke out in Ukraine in February 2022, a "limitless partnership" was established between China and Russia. With this visit, Putin aims to strengthen this partnership and send a powerful message to the entire world.

I mentioned the “real winners” of the war in Ukraine on its 2nd anniversary in my previous article, but many political commentators describe this war as a "gift" from Russia to China. Why? Because China has significantly strengthened its trade and military ties with Russia in recent years, the status/value of the Yuan has risen, and the Russian market has opened up even more to Chinese companies. In 2023, the Yuan even surpassed the US dollar to become the most popular currency on the Moscow Exchange. This increased cooperation resulted in the US and its allies imposing sanctions on both countries, particularly on Moscow due to its invasion of Ukraine.

The West says that China plays a significant role in Russia's resistance to sanctions and provides key technology that Russia uses on the battlefield in Ukraine. It accuses China of supplying electronic or microelectronic materials that power Russia's war machine, but China denies supplying weapons and maintains its neutral position regarding Ukraine. China has become a major importer of the Russian Federation’s energy resources, thus becoming a lifeline for the Russian economy. The economic partnership between Russia and China is not an equal one. China holds the upper hand in this relationship. For example, thanks to Russia, China has surpassed Japan to become the world's largest exporter of transport equipment. In 2023, China's automobile exports to Russia increased by 594%, while exports of trucks and tractors increased by nearly 700%. China, on the other hand, has become a very important source of imports for Russia. Last year, trade between the two countries rose to 240 billion dollars, an increase of more than 25 percent.

Under the conditions of sanctions imposed by Western countries, China continues to be one of the few indispensable trading partners for Russia. The rapprochement between Russia and China is not only economic. The war in Ukraine has a geopolitical impact that leads to the deepening of China-Russia relations, and this worries the EU as much as it does the US. Although the Chinese president says that he will work with Russia to ensure justice and fairness worldwide, China acts quite cautiously in its relations with Moscow. On one hand, China is in an economic struggle with the United States, while on the other, it maintains its relations with Moscow, as well as with the European Union, where it has large trade exchanges. In Xi Jinping’s European tour, we see China's effort to improve its relations with the EU, especially trade relations.

In addition to trade relations between Russia and China, data from numerous journalistic investigations conducted by American media outlets and independent Russian media organizations reveal the existence of agreements between Russia and China on the promotion of mutual propaganda on an international scale, operating with the same media narratives. One of these agreements was announced to the public and signed as early as July 2021. The inter-ministerial agreement provides for the development of cooperation projects, the sharing of news content, and the co-production of television programs. In the propaganda agreement, the two sides pledged to "further cooperate in the field of information sharing and promote objective, comprehensive, and accurate coverage of the world's most important events." The leaders of China and Russia have signed various media cooperation agreements, and a China-Russia media forum has been held annually since 2015. However, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the convergence of the narrative in Russian-Chinese media is striking. Many hacked Russian state media documents show close cooperation between Russia and China at the ministerial level.

Two centuries ago, Napoleon said about China: "Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world". Former Czech President Vaclav Havel also said regarding China's development that it happened so fast that we didn't even have time to be surprised. It seems that the war in Ukraine was a perfect opportunity for China's economic development. American professor Graham Allison, in his book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” writes that “what the US does in a few years, today's China does in a few hours. China's economic imperialism is spreading throughout the world through its economic network, causing even the US's loyal allies to turn toward China.” Xi Jinping wants to turn China not only into a powerful country but also into a wealthy one. Russia's economic dependence will be a real catalyst in this regard.