The 'North Koreanization' of the war in Ukraine

I don't know how you feel when you see the impressive military parades in North Korea. I have always been struck by the large number of soldiers marching in unison, with serious and stern faces, equipped with flashy weapons in Pyongyang's Kim Il-Sung Square. At the same time, it also instilled a sense of fear in me. I think that is one of the purposes of these military parades. North Korea as a country is very far from our region, but at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers are very close to us (in Russia, on the Ukrainian border). According to South Korean, Ukrainian, and American intelligence services, around 10-12 thousand North Korean mercenaries will fight on behalf of the Russian army in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that there is close cooperation at a strategic level between Russia and North Korea in all areas, including security. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un and Vladimir Putin signed an agreement on this matter in June 2024. The signed document includes a clause regarding the provision of mutual military assistance in the event of an attack on one of the countries.

This interstate document produces highly functional results for the interests pursued by both Russia and North Korea. For example, Russia is recruiting North Koreans to avoid having to mobilize Russians into the army. Putin knows very well that mobilizing a new wave of soldiers would create discontent in Russian society. Occasional protests by mothers or widows are recorded, but they are quickly suppressed. Another goal Putin is pursuing by accepting North Korean aid is to strengthen the Russian army. We learn from various sources that the Russian army is suffering significant material and human losses on the battlefield.

WHAT WILL NORTH KOREA RECEIVE IN EXCHANGE FOR SENDING TROOPS TO THE FRONT IN UKRAINE?

First of all, we must say that if it is confirmed that North Korea has indeed sent thousands of soldiers to help the Russian army, this campaign, which involves such a large participation in a war outside of North Korea, will be a first for North Korean troops. However, the North Korean army has helped friendly countries in wars before, albeit not with such an impressive number of soldiers. They have participated in conflicts around the world, from Southeast Asia to the Middle East and Africa.

So, what are the reasons that pushed Pyongyang to make such a decision? North Korea will get what it needs most, which is money. According to information provided by South Korean special services, a mercenary serving in the Russian army earns about $2,000 per month, plus a sign-up bonus that can reach $20,000. The South Korean National Intelligence Service estimates that 10,000 soldiers will participate in the war. This means an income of more than $200 million per year.

In addition to money, North Korea is also receiving significant amounts of grain and rice, which are necessary to support the state's modest reserves. Russia is also providing valuable assistance in advanced space technology that North Korea will need to launch reconnaissance satellites. However, it is believed that the most advantageous part of the agreement for North Korea is Russia's potential to get involved in a possible conflict on the Korean Peninsula. In this case, Russia could be expected to "come to the rescue" under the agreement signed in June 2024. But most importantly, it is believed that North Korea thinks it will profit from gaining direct "experience" on the modern battlefield.

There is also a risk for North Korea in this story. Sending about 10,000 North Korean soldiers, who have never left their country, have been subjected to the state propaganda machine, and have been isolated from all kinds of external influences, first to Russia and then to Ukraine, could open their eyes and lead them to ask many questions. These questions could create problems for their country's leadership. In the event that North Korean soldiers are captured on the Ukrainian front, situations could arise where they could become a valuable source of information from an intelligence perspective.

South Korea is quite concerned about the actions of its northern neighbor, and the South Korean president, addressing parliament, is calling for measures to be taken against the military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, which he sees as a "significant threat to the country's national security."

What are Ukrainian officials saying? They are more concerned than ever about the situation on the war front, as well as the passivity and inaction of Western partners. Ukraine is facing an increasingly serious demographic crisis, and those who refuse to join the army are resorting to various ways to avoid having to fight on the front lines. For example, the Ukrainian press writes that some doctors have become millionaires for providing fake medical reports to Ukrainians who do not want to go to war.

As I write this article, I am watching the news of Donald Trump celebrating his victory as the 47th President of the United States. What does Trump's victory mean for the war in Ukraine? It was Trump who declared that he would end this war in 24 hours.

Perhaps the North Korean soldiers went to Ukraine in vain. We will all see this together!