The turbulent former Soviet geography: The story of three countries

When we talk about the former Soviet geography, we are referring to a vast region stretching from the Baltic Sea to Eastern Europe, through the Caucasus, and into Central Asia. Unlike the former Soviet countries in Central Asia, where relative peace prevails, the situation in the former Soviet countries in the Caucasus and on the borders of the European Union has always been tense. Following the collapse of the USSR, there was a period of calm during which these countries attempted to rebuild (revive) their own identities, ethnicities, and languages. However, this calm did not last long.

The Rose Revolution in Georgia (2003), the Orange Revolution in Ukraine (2004), and the Twitter Revolution in Moldova (2009) deeply shook the political life of these countries. All these revolutions were viewed by Russia as a direct threat to the security of former Soviet countries and an interference in the internal affairs of these states. This was followed by the protests in Ukraine known as Euromaidan. Then came the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas. When the war in Ukraine began in February 2022, the geopolitical pot boiled over, signaling that nothing would ever be the same again. This war, in addition to determining the fate of humanity, also reset the political and ideological priorities of the former Soviet states. The "regional expansion" of the European Union or NATO is viewed by Russia as a major danger to itself. We are in 2024, and we can see how Russia's interests and the West's interests in former Soviet countries are clashing.

Three countries want to completely leave Moscow's sphere of influence. However, the Russian Federation does not envision the assets of the former USSR escaping its influence. This is because they are considered Russia's vital strategic "sphere of influence." The moment the Baltic States left the USSR is, in Russia's view, unique and unrepeatable. In other words, no other country will repeat the fate of the Baltic countries.

MOLDOVA

The Republic of Moldova now has a pro-European president and government. Presidential elections were held on October 20. At the same time, a referendum on constitutional amendments for accession to the European Union was held, and this threshold was only crossed with 50.35 percent of the vote. Although Russia has launched an unprecedented hybrid war on Moldovan soil and tried to buy citizens' votes with fraudulent schemes, the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova will be amended to state that the country aims to integrate into the EU. The second round of the presidential election will be held on November 3. The contest will take place between the current president, Maia Sandu (supported by the West), and Alexandru Stoyanoglo (the candidate of pro-Russian forces), both of whom are Moldovan citizens and also Romanian citizens. So, the candidate supported by Moscow is also a citizen of Romania, an EU and NATO member. Is this possible? It seems everything is possible in that part of the world.

GEORGIA

In Georgia, the ruling Georgian Dream party won the elections held last Saturday with 53.9% of the vote. The opposition coalition received 37.7% of the vote. Pro-Western opposition parties are refusing to recognize the results of the vote, alleging fraud in favor of the ruling Georgian Dream party. So, there is currently a pro-Russian government and a pro-European president in Georgia. Therefore, there is an environment of maximum tension. Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili described the election results as "illegitimate" and spoke of a "special Russian operation." However, the Kremlin denied this claim. Meanwhile, we should note that the Georgian president also holds French citizenship. The head of Georgian Dream, Bidzina Ivanishvili, also holds dual Georgian and French citizenship. Some sources say he also holds Russian citizenship. His official wealth of 5 billion US dollars, mostly acquired in Russia in the 1990s, is equivalent to 20% of Georgia's GDP, making him by far the richest man in the country.

UKRAINE

In Ukraine, a pro-European president has been in power since 2019, who is applauded abroad but increasingly criticized at home. After nearly 3 years of war, Ukraine's European dream is uncertain and NATO membership is almost non-existent. The Russian Federation started the war in Ukraine to achieve new regional limitations. Because it believes this is the only way it can block Ukraine's plans to become part of Western structures. Given the possibility of North Korean soldiers joining the Russian side, this war carries the risk of expanding slowly but surely.

Chaos will not disappear very quickly in the former Soviet countries. Because people (voters) have always cast their votes based on geopolitical criteria. There are two sides in these countries that have turned into a fierce hybrid war (Moldova, Georgia) or a real war on the battlefield (Ukraine). We are talking about two completely different systems: the democratic Western system (with all its flaws) and the authoritarian (Russian) system.

Russian politicians, when speaking about former Soviet states, often claim in their speeches that "every country is free to make its own choices" and that "Russia does not interfere in internal affairs." However, we all see that Moscow is determined to control its neighbors. The same can be said for Western powers. The main goal is the limitation and control of spheres of influence between major international actors. In such cases, the opinion of the public matters less.