Turkey's difficult balancing act between Russia and the US

During my short vacation in Moldova, people there asked me many questions about the foreign policy Turkey is pursuing. I realized that people are a bit confused about this. How is it that Turkey, while being a NATO country, provides military equipment and drones to Ukraine on one hand, while not participating in the West's sanctions against Russia on the other? It also did not close its airspace to Russian planes. In short, the question is: Who is Turkey supporting? Answering this question is certainly difficult, especially under current circumstances.

For example, let's start with Putin. It was announced at the beginning of this year that the Russian President would visit Turkey. However, it was reported in the press at the last minute that the visit had been postponed without any explanation. Thus, Putin was going to visit a NATO country for the first time in 4 years, but the visit did not take place. At the same time, it would have been his first visit to a NATO country since the start of the war in Ukraine. In fact, the Russian newspaper Kommersant ran a quite interesting headline at the time that summarized what was written above: "There is a lot to negotiate with Turkey. Both Moscow and Washington are seeking rapprochement with Ankara." Putin has been postponing his visit to Turkey for four years. We are approaching the end of this year, but Putin has not yet visited Turkey. By not visiting Turkey, Putin is sending a message first to President Erdoğan, and then to the whole world.

Even if Putin does not come, relations between Turkey and Russia have not ended; on the contrary, they have developed. The most famous event that many people watched with bated breath was the political prisoner exchange between Russia and the US, which is considered the largest prisoner swap since the Cold War. Turkey's mediation of this exchange and its realization in Ankara undoubtedly gave Turkey a positive image. Foreign Minister Fidan declared, "The exchange operation that took place in Ankara, as we have seen, proves that both the US and Russia see Turkey as a reliable partner." Washington described the exchange as "a diplomatic success" and thanked the Turkish government for making it possible.

While the excitement of the prisoner swap had not yet faded, we all learned this week that the US has warned Turkey about restrictions due to allegations that technology that could be used for military purposes is being exported to Russia. According to a report by the Financial Times, the US Department of Commerce has added 18 Turkish companies, which are alleged to have sent American-made products to Russia, to its sanctions list.

In June, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that despite pressure from Western countries, the economic dialogue between Russia and Turkey continues. He noted that US representatives came to Ankara, brought officials and businessmen together, and "threatened them crudely." According to Peskov, this behavior was "completely shameless."

While the Financial Times points out that trade with Russia is straining the relationship between Turkey and the US, it also reminds that Turkey has not imposed sanctions on Russia like the US, the EU, and other Western allies.

Although Turkey is a NATO country, it is a country that mediates (even if slightly) the communication between other NATO countries and Russia. We should not ignore the important intermediary role Turkey plays in grain exports to the Black Sea. Turkey also hosted two rounds of peace talks in Istanbul and Antalya. For now, Turkey manages to maintain its "active neutrality" in both Ukrainian and Russian relations. However, Turkey's hosting of some of the Ukrainian prisoners of war released by Russia in 2023 led to critical discussions in Russia.

Russia, which is increasingly excluded and isolated in the international arena, sees its relationship with Turkey as its only chance to avoid the imposed sanctions. It accepts Turkey as a unique and safe partner to which it can convey its message to the whole world. This pragmatic cooperation and friendship are not welcomed by NATO countries, and some media sources therefore call Turkey the "disobedient child of NATO."

Turkey continues to be one of the largest importers of Russian gas and oil; approximately 2/3 of the natural gas consumed in Turkey comes from Russia. The existence of the Blue Stream natural gas pipeline and the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Mersin are two important cooperation projects between Turkey and Russia, and they also create interstate interdependence. When we look at Russia's share in Turkey's tourism, we see that Russians have been the most frequent visitors to Turkey since 2017 (Germany follows Russia in the ranking of countries sending the most visitors to Turkey in the first 4 months of this year). With the sanctions on Russia and the withdrawal of foreign brands from the Russian market, especially in the textile sector, many Turkish firms filled the void. Experts call Turkey's economic relations with Russia "asymmetric interdependence." In this relationship, Russia is seen as the more advantageous party. Furthermore, Turkey is an energy corridor that passes through the TurkStream pipeline and thus supplies Russian gas to European countries.

Over the years, many crises have occurred in the relations between the two countries, such as the "tomato crisis," the "tangerine crisis," and the "downed plane crisis." During every crisis, the interdependence between these two countries has contributed to the softening of any economic crisis or conflict.

I love the proverbs of peoples because they describe the essence of that people. To make this article understandable, I will conclude with two Russian proverbs that are very meaningful to me and accurately reflect the current stage of relations between Russia and Turkey: "If you are alone on the battlefield, you are not considered a soldier" (to win a war, you need to be with someone else) and "Your own shirt is closer to your own body" (your own interests are more important than other people's interests).