Why did Transnistria not request to join Russia?

Last week, numerous media outlets in Turkey and other countries reported that the Transnistria region of the Republic of Moldova would "request" to join the Russian Federation. This was a piece of Russian propaganda speculation that the foreign press accepted without question. However, this week, specifically on February 28, the so-called Transnistrian authorities did not request to join Russia. They only asked for the assistance and protection of the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the European Union, and the Red Cross, not just Russia.

What is happening in this region, which is a very sensitive point in the context of the war in Ukraine? The region's so-called authorities blame Moldova for "economic pressures." As of January 1, 2024, the new Customs Code of the Republic of Moldova came into effect, requiring Transnistrian companies to pay customs duties to the budget of the Republic of Moldova. Until now, the money was going to the local budget in Tiraspol (the capital of the separatist region). The war in Ukraine has negatively affected all surrounding countries, including this region, economically. Taxes that must be paid to the Chisinau government will further exacerbate the economic crisis. Economically, Russia is not the key partner for this region, as approximately 70 percent of trade is conducted with EU countries. The poor economic situation is also due to the fact that about a quarter of the Transnistrian budget is allocated to security and defense.

Another reason why the so-called Transnistrian authorities asked for help and protection from Russia is that 220 thousand Russian citizens live in the region. This is not the first time that the authorities in this region have asked for help from Russia. They do this regularly almost every year. In 2006, regional authorities had requested that Transnistria be recognized as independent. However, to date, no state, including Russia, has recognized the sovereignty of the Transnistria region. I must point out that 90 percent of the Transnistrian population are citizens of the Republic of Moldova. The process of obtaining citizenship of the Republic of Moldova or Romania accelerated after February 24, 2022. This shows that people do not want to be sent to war as Russian citizens. A significant portion of the population also consists of people who hold 3 or even 4 citizenships (Russian, Ukrainian, Moldovan, and Romanian).

The request for protection by the so-called Tiraspol deputies was met with a reaction from the Kremlin stating that "all applications are always carefully examined by the relevant expert institutions in Russia." The request for protection by Russia for Transnistria is absurd, because a part of Moldova cannot ask for protection against the rest of Moldova. Transnistria is an inseparable part of the Republic of Moldova.

So why did Transnistria not "request" to join Russia? Because Transnistria is controlled by a few very influential oligarchs who do not want to lose their wealth by being included in the list of sanctions imposed by the West against Russia. A possible union with Russia would not be in their interest. One of the largest holdings, the Sheriff group, controls a supermarket chain, gas stations, a cognac distillery, and a beluga caviar farm. This region is also a haven for the smuggling of weapons, cigarettes, alcohol, medicine, drugs, etc. The European Union has invested millions of euros to monitor activities in this region, but no progress has been made in this regard.

TRANSNISTRIA FILE

Today, March 2, 2024, marks the 32nd anniversary of the Transnistria war between Moldova and Russia. Through this conflict, Russia sought to secure its control in the region and prevent a possible union of Moldova with Romania. In this war, which lasted about 4 months in 1992, 1,100 people lost their lives. Previously, in 1924, pro-Russian forces stationed in the Transnistria region aimed to export the Bolshevik revolution first to Romania and then to the Balkans. Later, the Moldovan army, which was formed just one month before the start of the war in 1992, fought against the 14th Army, which was one of Russia's most powerful land armies at the time. Lacking a strong army, Moldova was forced to sign a ceasefire agreement that allowed Russian troops to be stationed on Moldovan territory due to geopolitical conditions.

Approximately 400 thousand people live in Transnistria. Today, Transnistria, the most unstable region in Eastern Europe, holds a Russian ammunition depot of approximately 20,000 tons. In November 1999, at the OSCE Istanbul Summit, Russian authorities rejected the demand for the withdrawal of troops and ammunition from the territory of the Republic of Moldova by the end of 2002. The Transnistria issue appears in the literature as a "frozen" conflict. However, in the context of the war in Ukraine, it is a significant source of instability, threat, and concern for both the Chisinau authorities and the entire southeastern region, as it is approximately 100 km away from Odesa. There have always been strong indications and concerns that Russian troops fighting in Ukraine would build a corridor from Odesa to Transnistria in the Black Sea. Once this corridor is opened, approximately 40,000 troops could join the war in Ukraine, and Ukrainian territory could be attacked from four different directions.