A difficult process in Iran

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has been experiencing one of its most fragile and uncertainperiods.The spread of protests across the country,the rising death toll, and the regime'ssecurity-focusedapproaches have made thealready discussed possibility of US intervention even more visible.has been. In the protests the number of those who diedthe fact that a clear picture regarding the count has not been presented deepens the uncertainties.

In parallel with this picture, the US'smilitary presence in the regionregarding striking claims have come to the agendaAccording to some news sourcesthe US Navyhas deployedits guided-missile destroyers in the Middle Eastand in the event of a potential Iran–US or Iran–Israel escalation, Iranian ballistic mtasked with preventingit is claimedthat. Also, some US military aircraftin the Persian GGulf airspaceconducted intenseflightactivitiesit isstatedthat they carried out. The New York Times, meanwhile, reported that a nuclear submarinewas also deployed in the region.

The US and Israel frequently state that they could intervene in the eventthat the loss of life and executions related to protests in Iran increase.At this point, the question “Will there be a US-Israel attack?” is gaining importance.Suchan attackthe possibility of war cannot be completelydisregarded. However, thesestatements areintended to exert diplomatic pressure on the Iranianadministration and to increase bargainingpowerto increaseits power is seen to beused. A possibleintervention'swidescale impactrather than a military operationmore in the form of a "pinpoint strike",options such as an assassination attempt against Supreme Leader Ali Khameneior attacks on oil refineries and critical infrastructurefacilities seem more likely.However, such scenarios carry serious risks.First and foremost, the office of the Velayat-e Faqih is a central pillar.an assassination attempt against the religious leader representing theregime couldtrigger a widespreadreactionand uprising across theShiiteworld. Second, in the event of Iran's collapse, the resulting power vacuum will further deepen regional instability.

This In this context, the Washington Post claimed thatmessages were conveyed between Israel and Iran regarding a "no first strike" agreementthrough Russian mediation.However, despite this claim, the Iranian administrationcontinues to evaluatethe possibility of a potential attack.does notignore.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu frequently expressthat they stand with the Iranian people during the protest process. However, while on one hand using rhetoricin support of the people,on the other hand, the possibility of militaryintervention is kept on the table.thesestatementsweaken their credibility. A possible attack would not only further shake Iran, but would also cause the Iranian people, who are already under economic and social pressure, to pay the heaviest price once again.Indeed, the US and Israel are themselves aware that they cannot bringfreedom and prosperity directly to the Iranian people. Especially the 12-Day Warin the process of seeing the Iranian people unitedagainst external attacks, theperception that these actors have seriously undermined their legitimacyin Iranian societyhas exacerbated. The Iranian people, regarding the country's economic collapse, while acknowledging the role of the government's wrong policies, also clearly see the impact of U.S. sanctions.ina clearmanner.

US Aggression Does Not BringFreedom, It BringsFragmentation

The examples of Iraq and Libya show that the long-term consequences offoreigninterventionsandarehistorical lessons in terms of. These countries, US interventionsin the short termanti-governmentgroups' pave the way forbut lasting stability, security and normalization have not been achieved. Today it is observed that a similar scenario is being sought to be implemented forIran.It isevident. The Trump administration,which wants to use interventionin Iran for its own political goals,could weaken orcollapse the regime, but the cost of this would be dragging Iran intoan uncontrollable process of fragmentation.is.

Although there is talk of an understanding between Israel and Iranregarding not initiating the first attack,a potentialintervention by the UShas the potentialto rapidly escalate the tensionbetween the two countries. On the other hand, the arming of certaingroups through provocations during the protest process also poses an additional threat in terms ofdomestic security.

Iran's mosturgent need todayis comprehensive andrealistic reforms.is. Overcoming the economic bottleneck, fightingcorruption, and addressing demands for social and politicalequalityareinevitablenecessities.appears. PresidentMasoud Pezeshkian's initiation of economic reform efforts is important, however, thecontinuation ofprotests and theongoing threat of war make the realizationof thesereforms difficult.

Future Scenarios and Leadership Uncertainty

Public protests in Iran, the regime's repressive policies, and the possibility of a US-Israel attack are shaking the regime significantly.The fact that the protests have failed to produce a leader and that there is no alternative capable of taking power in the event that the regime weakens orcollapses increases uncertainty. While names such as Reza Pahlavi and the leader of the People's Mojahedin Organization,Maryam Rajavi, have occasionally been brought up,these actorsof the actors it cannot be said that it finds strongsupportwithin Iranian society.In fact, the name of former President Hassan Rouhanihas also been put forward as a religious leader. However, Pahlavi'snuclear programtermination, normalizing relations with the US, and recognizing Israeldue to the promises they made, these figures were seen asactors that the US could engage with and utilize fromits perspective.Itis understood.

All these scenarios are causing confusion within the management levelswhile creating clarity, the main determining factor is the struggle that the Iranian people have continued in the face ofeconomic hardships anddemandsforfreedom. The futureuncertainties regarding, ethnic diversity is high in the country, power struggles into internal conflicts and chaoscouldturn. The war in Iraq and Syrialessons from the destructive effect of theIranian administration, which drawsconclusions, is therefore trying to keep control in its hands.However, the continuity of the protestsand thepossibility of war further increase the risks.

TRegional States Benefit from ChaosAt this stage,

some states havefor security reasons decided totemporarily close their embassies in Iran,while others have withdrawn their diplomatic staff and citizenshas warned its citizens. These steps demonstrate that the protests in Iran are no longer just an internal political issue, but haveemerged asa regional and global agendaitem.In general, countries in the region

are concerned about the sudden and uncontrollis not a collapsefromthe beginning.Sucha scenario would bring with it waves of mass migration,the strengthening of non-state armed actors,and a new wave of instability that threatens security and economicinterests. For this reason, amany regional states share the view thatIran needs to berestructured through its owninternaldynamics.Indeed, Saudi Arabia and Iraqare approaching Iran withregarding a potentialattack, they announced that they would not allow the use of their airspace and territoryandGulf countrieshave also provided assurancesaimed at preventing the escalation oftensions.

However, the possibility of the US and Israel carrying out a potentialattack againstIran via Iraq has alsocome to theagenda. In this scenario, westernIran could be destabilized through Kurdish elementsdirected from Iraq.suppressed through its influence, and it isclaimed that the goal is to gain ground for theidea of a "Greater Kurdistan."

Such a development would only threaten Iran's territorialintegritynot from the perspective ofbut also in terms of Turkey's border security, it also carries serious risks. Through Kurdish elements trained by Israel in Iraq, to the west of Irana ground operation againstit is alleged that they are planninghowever, it is said that there is no full consensuswith the US on this matter.Allegations that someKurdishgroupsin Northern Iraq are infiltrating Iran also complicate this picture.strengthening. The claim by the armed wing of the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK),theKurdistan National Army, that it captureda headquarters belonging to the Revolutionary Guards in Kermanshahisa developmentthatdemonstrates howfragile the processis. In this context, the statement that Iraq will not allow its territory to be usediscritical forregional stabilityin terms of is of importance.

Ultimately, whether it is an internal uprising, foreign intervention, or a chaotic leadership change,any development that occurs within the Islamic Republic of Iran has the potential to fundamentally affect the political and security architecture of the Middle East.