A new migration risk for Turkey: Iran–US tension

The deterioration of political stability and the rise of military tension in a neighboring country is a multidimensional development that carries not only a diplomatic problem for border countries but also a direct risk of security and humanitarian crises. In such situations, regional instability, border security risks, and the possibility of migration movements come to the fore. For this reason, countries with the potential to be affected by a crisis must develop preventive and emergency response strategies against possible scenarios.

A potential war between the US and Iran has the potential to affect not only military balances but also migration movements, border security, and regional stability. One of the most significant risks for Turkey is an uncontrolled and mass wave of migration that could come from Iran.

Historical Background of Migration from Iran

When migration and refugees are mentioned, Syrians, Iraqis, and Afghans come to mind first. However, Iranian migrants should not be overlooked among them. Migration from Iran is not a new phenomenon. Migrations that began for political reasons, especially after the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution, have diversified over time due to economic and social reasons. After the revolution, primarily monarchists, members of the former regime, and opposition groups left the country, while the Iran-Iraq War between 1980 and 1988 produced a new security-based wave of migration. It has been observed that there were also migrations from the pro-revolution segment. An example of this can be seen in capital owners associated with the regime after the Iran-Iraq War. The Green Movement process that emerged following the presidential elections held in 2009 also led to a new wave of political and qualified migration.

In subsequent years, economic sanctions, high inflation, unemployment, and loss of income became the main driving factors of migration. Migration was not limited to political dissidents; different ethnic and religious groups, the educated middle class, business people, and the young population were also included in this process. This situation shows that migration has turned into a structural and continuous phenomenon.

Economic Pressures and Brain Drain

The contraction in the Iranian economy in recent years due to the impact of sanctions has accelerated the outflow of educated and qualified human resources. High unemployment rates, especially among youth and women, limited opportunities for professional advancement, and income inequality are among the factors increasing brain drain.

Brain drain, which is a significant problem globally, is also at a non-negligible level for Iran and causes a significant economic loss. The statements made by Iranian official authorities and the assessments of the press in this regard are noteworthy. It has been commented that the human capital lost through brain drain is approximately twice the revenue Iran earns from oil sales or is equivalent to the burning of 10 oil wells.

The outflow of qualified labor and capital makes economic recovery difficult in the long term. Thus, political pressures and economic fragility produce a migration dynamic that feeds each other.

The wealthy, negatively affected by sanctions, have preferred to migrate to countries with economic stability in order to secure their income and investments. They have carried out their money transfers by establishing companies and making investments in the countries they moved to. Therefore, these developments have been an encouraging factor for migration.

Turkey: A Transit Country or a Place of Settlement?

For Iranian citizens, Turkey has long been an important target country. Geographical proximity, visa convenience, cultural interaction, relatively low transportation costs, and the ease of settlement procedures are decisive in this preference. Cities such as Izmir, Antalya, Istanbul, and Denizli are among the centers where Iranians are concentrated.

Between 2018 and 2025, Iranian citizens ranked high among foreigners purchasing property in Turkey. This situation shows that Turkey is seen not only as a transit country but also as a center for settlement and investment.

Regional Reflections of the Migration Wave

Considering Iran's multi-ethnic structure, in the event of a possible internal instability or war, population movements could affect not only Turkey but also neighboring countries such as Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Gulf countries.

Due to geographical proximity, European countries could also be indirectly affected. As observed in past crisis experiences, the possibility that migration movements, which initially head toward neighboring countries, might shift toward Europe over time should not be ignored. This situation could turn the issue of migration from a regional one into a broader security and stability problem.

Possible Consequences for Turkey

Turkey is still one of the countries hosting the most refugees in the world. This situation makes the economic and social impacts of a new mass migration wave more sensitive. In a possible Iran-US war, two different migration profiles could emerge. First, it is likely that upper and middle-class Iranian citizens, who do not come from the war zone but want to secure their capital and savings, will head toward major cities in Turkey. This situation could have an impact on the housing market, rent increases, and the social structure.

The other is irregular migration. Migrants coming through Iran, mostly of Afghan and Pakistani origin, could leave Turkey in a difficult position in terms of economy and security. Considering those who came illegally from Afghanistan in past years, the seriousness of the situation becomes apparent. Therefore, this process could cease to be just the migration of Iranian citizens and could turn into a much more complex population movement due to Iran's position as a transit country.

Conclusion

A possible war between the US and Iran could deeply affect regional stability and population movements. Having hosted Syrian refugees for years, Turkey could this time face a more complex situation involving economic, social, and security dimensions with a potential wave of migration from Iran. Furthermore, a security vacuum that could arise in Iran might carry the possibility of expanding the operational space for armed groups on Turkey's eastern border. This makes the migration issue a subject that must be addressed not only from a humanitarian perspective but also from a security dimension.

The real question here is: How prepared is Turkey for such a possible mobility?