A New Turning Point in the Middle East: Peace Born of Necessity

In a recent statement, the US Special Envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, said that the borders drawn by the Sykes-Picot Agreement are now "meaningless for Israel." According to Barrack, Israelis could "go anywhere they want at any time" and "do what is necessary" to protect their borders. This rhetoric demonstrates that international legal norms are being disregarded with US support. Indeed, it does not seem likely in the near future that Israel, which has pursued a policy of territorial expansion since its founding, will abandon this stance.

As a matter of fact, since October 7, 2023, it has been observed that Israel is pursuing a strategic policy that transcends the Sykes-Picot borders not only in Gaza but on a regional scale, aiming to redraw the map of the Middle East. At this point, to understand the developments in the region, it is important to look back at the 1982 Yinon Plan. This plan saw the way to ensure Israel's security in the fragmentation of Arab states in the region along ethnic and sectarian lines.

Therefore, today's developments reinforce claims that the geopolitical vision of the Yinon Plan, which divides the region into pieces, is still effective. In this context, the question of "which states are next" has become a fundamental discussion topic that determines the direction of regional dynamics.

The Gaza Agreement: Contradictions and Future of the Deal

The Gaza War, which began on October 7, 2023, ended with a ceasefire agreement signed between Israel and Hamas on October 9, 2025, as a result of diplomatic efforts mediated by Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar. This agreement is essentially a peace of necessity, where the parties sat at the table for different reasons. While Israel and the US wanted to repair their tarnished images in the international arena, for Hamas, this ceasefire became the only way to maintain its existence.

The Gaza Agreement stands out as a text closer to Israel's interests in terms of its content. US pressure and the threat of the total destruction of Gaza forced Hamas to sign the agreement. However, how the parties, especially Israel, interpret the articles of the agreement will determine the fate of the process. Historical experience has shown time and again that ceasefires in similar situations do not turn into lasting peace.

Among the most controversial articles of the agreement are: the control of Gaza, Hamas laying down its arms, and Israel's border and security controls. At this point, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict retains its character as an "unsolvable equation" today. If the Palestinians can show unity among themselves, they will both strengthen international support and create a deterrent effect against possible Israeli violations. In contrast, it does not seem likely that Israel will accept a comprehensive withdrawal plan. This situation weakens the Palestinian people's sense of security and casts a shadow over the permanence of peace.

The Role of the US and Global Impacts

The unconditional US support for Israel has harmed both its domestic and foreign policy in the long run. The fact that US President Donald Trump was presented as someone deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize was also an ironic reflection of the process. Yet, neither the US, nor Israel, nor Palestine has found a solution to the problem. It is clear that this agreement cannot bring peace in the short term, nor can it ensure the end of hatred. However, in the current situation, there is no option other than to wait and observe developments.

Although 109 years have passed since the Sykes-Picot Agreement, the region is being reshaped. But this time, it is not pens on tables that are redrawing the map, but energy resources and proxy forces. The role undertaken by Britain and France in 1916 is now being assumed by the US and Israel. Both are trying to expand their spheres of influence in the region and establish an order that suits their own interests. Today's Sykes-Picot is taking place not only on the ground but also in technology and the diplomatic field.

Conclusion

The Gaza Agreement is not just a ceasefire, but also a test of the Middle East's fragile future. The artificial borders drawn a century ago still determine the fate of this geography. The new borders and alliances that Israel has shaped in line with its own interests perpetuate crises in the region and overshadow peace.