A belated recognition: What does Europe's Palestine move mean?

The humanitarian crisis that began in Gaza on October 7, 2023, particularly the severe food blockade and attacks on civilians implemented by Israel, has sparked a major reaction worldwide. Following these developments, some countries in Europe have begun taking steps toward officially recognizing the State of Palestine.

While France has come to the forefront among these countries, the UK, Canada, and Malta have also announced that they will recognize Palestine at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly to be held in September. Germany, meanwhile, has announced that it will accelerate the recognition process if the West Bank is annexed by Israel.

These developments have brought the long-stalled issue of a “two-state solution” back onto the international agenda. 

SIGNALS OF RECOGNITION FROM FRANCE AND THE UK

147 of the 193 UN members have already recognized the State of Palestine. However, it is noteworthy that France, the UK, and Germany—among the G7 countries (UK, France, Germany, USA, Canada, Italy, and Japan) that have not yet recognized it—are nearing such a decision. 

France, considering the sensitivities of its large Muslim population as well as its Jewish community of approximately 440,000, views the decision to recognize the State of Palestine as a balancing step that would respond to the expectations of both Palestinians and Israelis. 

It is stated that this decision could also mobilize other European countries, such as Italy. Italy, for its part, argues that a recognition decision could only be meaningful on the condition that Palestine also recognizes Israel. Hamas's refusal to recognize Israel adds a new layer of complexity to this process. Germany is maintaining a cautious stance with its decision. However, these trends are being met with harsh opposition from the US and Israel.

SO, WHAT DO THESE RECOGNITIONS MEAN?

Since Palestine declared independence unilaterally in 1988, it has been recognized by approximately two-thirds of UN member states. Like past recognitions, the recognition of the State of Palestine by France, the UK, Germany, Canada, and Malta has little practical meaning: for these recognitions to have a practical effect, the approval of the UN Security Council and the acceptance of the five permanent members (USA, Russia, China, UK, France) are required. Furthermore, UN Resolution 242, which envisions Israel's withdrawal from the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza, which it occupied in 1967, must also be implemented. 

In this context, new recognition decisions cannot go beyond being symbolic political declarations. This is because, for Palestine to gain “de facto state” status under international law, recognition alone is not enough; concrete elements of sovereignty such as a capital and government integrity must also be established. However, this is a problem in Palestine. Moreover, the recognition of the State of Palestine is not accepted by the US and Israel, as it would also mean international acknowledgment that Israel is an occupier and would validate the resistance of the Palestinians.

ISRAEL'S EXPANSIONISM FED BY SILENCE

The international community has remained largely silent in the face of Israel's territorial gains following the Arab-Israeli Wars. The UN Security Council has not taken any serious sanctions decisions regarding the occupied Palestinian territories to date. Settlement activities in Jerusalem and expansionist policies in the West Bank after 1967 have continued without the threat of military intervention or sanctions.

This self-confidence of Israel has been made possible by the unconditional support of the US and the influence of powerful pro-Israel lobbies around the world. These lobbies prevent Israel from facing international isolation. 

JERUSALEM AND THE POLITICS OF FAIT ACCOMPLI

With the US recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in 2017 and the subsequent relocation of embassies to Jerusalem by first the US and then Guatemala, Israel was able to facilitate a policy of normalization through a fait accompli. The inability to provide a strong reaction within the UN legitimized these policies of Israel and accelerated the normalization process.

THE SYMBOLIC NATURE OF RECOGNITION STEPS 

The initiatives by France and other European countries to recognize Palestine are not enough to change the reality on the ground. As long as Israel's current stance continues and the US does not support a two-state solution, such recognitions mostly cannot go beyond diplomatic gestures.

These steps can be read as an effort by Europe both to react to the brutality in Gaza and to take on a more effective role in the Middle East. However, the capacity of actors like France—which has not achieved effective results in the Ukraine-Russia war so far and whose mediation in the Karabakh process was unsuccessful—to produce an effective solution to the Palestine-Israel issue also appears limited.

CONCLUSION: POLITICAL MESSAGE OR REAL STEP?

Steps toward the recognition of Palestine can be seen as a pressure element on Israel. However, ending the conflicts is not possible through recognition alone. A real solution is only possible if the US changes its position and exerts deterrent pressure on Israel. 

Therefore, although these steps taken by European countries offer a glimmer of hope for the Palestinian people, it is difficult for them to create a practical transformation under today's conditions. For a sincere and lasting solution, it is essential that the international community demonstrates a determined will and realistic policy, not just symbols.