Escalating tension: The US, Iran, and the Persian Gulf

The US intention to pursue negotiations with Iran, the announcement of a 15-point agreement, reports regarding a potential US declaration of a ceasefire, constantly changing statements, and the contradictory remarks of US President Donald Trump have weakened the credibility of peace initiatives. Iran has denied Trump's statements regarding negotiations and a ceasefire. So, which side is telling the truth? This uncertainty creates an environment of expectation and risk for the global economy and regional actors. Increasing military operations in the region and preparations by US Special Forces airborne units to land on Kharg Island indicate that hopes for peace are diminishing.

Pakistan's Mediation Role

In this environment, it has come to the fore that the US has requested a ceasefire through Pakistan and that Pakistan is open to mediation, provided both sides agree. In recent days, the possibility of mediation by Turkey and Egypt has also been raised. Pakistan's prominence is seen as linked to its recent intensive diplomatic contacts with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

However, regardless of which country assumes the role of mediator, the US's 15-point agreement is not only unacceptable to Iran but also does not constitute a real peace treaty. Consisting of unilateral demands, this agreement is an imposition rather than a negotiation.

Putting demands on the table is not the same as negotiating

The US has announced its 15-point conditions; Iran had previously conveyed its own demands: the payment of compensation, the recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, guarantees that the war will not recur, and the cessation of attacks. However, the fact that both sides have put their demands on the table does not mean they are negotiating. The US demands have been entirely demands for surrender. Contrary to US statements, there is no observed movement from Iran toward surrender. Mechanisms to guarantee mutual trust and the outcome of negotiations between the two states do not yet exist. Furthermore, the Israel factor stands out as a decisive and influential element in this process.

With the 15-point agreement, the US is trying to portray itself as the victor and Iran as the defeated. This agreement aims to leave Iran vulnerable to future US and Israeli attacks. This is because the range of the missile Iran used in the Dimona attack, along with its attack on the Diego Garcia Base in the Indian Ocean with a 4000 km range ballistic missile, has created serious concerns about the capacity of the missiles in Iran's possession.

Kharg Island: The Hidden Jewel of the Persian Gulf

Strategically important Kharg Island is also called the "hidden jewel of the Persian Gulf" or the "forbidden island," and a potential occupation of the island would significantly increase tension in the region. The 20-square-kilometer island is of critical importance as it handles approximately 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. The island's location also offers a favorable area where giant oil tankers can pass safely. Kharg Island is protected by elite units within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and according to official and energy market data, 1.3-1.6 million barrels of oil are exported from the island daily (The Global Statistics, Kharg Island Statistics 2026. March 14, 2026).

The discovery of oil on Kharg Island, the initial infrastructure work, and the storage facilities were carried out by the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, known today as BP. This infrastructure further increases the island's economic and strategic value. The potential operation planned by the US against the island aims to ensure the security of ship passages in the Strait of Hormuz, take control of oil production areas, and force Iran to accept the terms of the agreement. However, Iran's response to an attack on the oil infrastructure on the island carries regional risks. This situation could cause serious damage to the global economy and has the potential to raise the price of Brent crude oil to as high as 300 dollars.

The strategic importance of Kharg Island was also revealed in previous wars. During the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, the island was targeted by Iraq in an attempt to weaken Iran's war capacity. This shows that the island plays a decisive role in the regional balance from both a military and economic perspective.

Ground War

It is not possible for the US to emerge from operations against Iranian territory without suffering damage. These operations will bring about high human casualties in addition to material losses. Although Trump has claimed that they have destroyed Iran's military capacity, the current situation shows that Iran is still in a position to respond to Israeli and US attacks. Iran's main deficiency is the lack of a defense system. However, due to asymmetric defense measures such as mine and booby-trap systems, the US is focusing on air and naval operations to control the islands and coasts near Iran.

Conclusion

The 15-point agreement announced between the US and Iran does not signify a real negotiation process, but rather the imposition of unilateral demands. Although Pakistan's mediation efforts contribute to diplomacy, the lack of trust and the fact that the parties are mutually refuting each other's claims weaken faith in the peace process. Strategic points like Kharg Island are of critical importance in terms of regional power balances and global economic stability. Current conditions indicate that military tensions may continue and that diplomatic solution efforts will be limited.