Four countries, one people: The 'Kurdish State' debate in the Middle East equation

The military and political activity observed in the Middle East in the recent period, the operations along the Turkey–Iraq–Syria line, and the developments in Turkey are causing a re-evaluation of the future of Kurdish political structures. This picture leads to a reconsideration of assessments regarding the future of an “independent KQuestions regarding the possibility of a 'Kurdish state'are limited to a certain extent, causing it to come back onto the agenda.

The Middle East is always complex and opento conflicts.has been a complex geography. The Kurds living in thisgeography have been one of the fundamentalvariables of regional politics for many years, seeking to expand their own political statusin the post-Ottomanperiod, they have been in search ofdifferentpolitical status in various countries.Theidea of "state-building" in Kurdish political movements has manifested itself, particularly in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, through efforts to create"decentralized" structures.Today,however,thisquestis sometimes associated with the goal of an independent Kurdistan. So, can the developments taking place in these four countries pave the way for the establishment of a Kurdish state in the Middle East?

TTHE COUNTRIESI

With the 2003 invasion of Iraqand the civil war that began in Syria with the Arab Spring in 2011, the civil warhas been acritical turning point in theevolutionof the Kurdish movement. In thisprocess, both the US and certainWestern actorsprovided military and politicalsupport.andKurdishstructures tostrengthen on the ground.Gaining official status in 2005,the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq is internationallyrecognized and maintains relations with neighboring countries.an actor capable of establishing a direct relationshiphas turnedintoaprocess. The instability in Iraqhas increasedthe regional role of the Kurdsas it has created, it has also aligned with the projects of externalpowers, which hasensuredthatthis support hascontinued.In Syria, however, the rise of ISIS

has changed the dynamics.riseof, the international community's Kurdish forces' supporthas increased. However, this support has remained limited and temporary in nature as the balances on the ground haveshifted. In thisprocess, the Syrian Democratic Forces, which was established in 2015 and has become increasingly institutionaliforces (SDF), in order to expand their politicalspace, have made various attempts specifically for the recognition of theirautonomy,and have from time to time sought an agreementwith the centralDamascus administration. However, the future of these initiatives depends on the Damascus administration.with its administration,a possible agreement to be reached, the US'spresence in the region,and Turkey's operations,the long-term political goals of the SDF remain uncertain.

Kurds in Turkey have throughout history in these landshave become an inseparable part ofthewhole. Individuals of Kurdish originhave servedat various levelswithin state institutionsis weakening the perception of an“excluded Kurdishidentity.” This situationdemonstrates that the Kurdish issue in Turkey has a different social and politicalfoundation compared to those in other countries.

The K in IranAlthough the Kurdish population is sometimes sought to be used as apressure element in regional projects, they have not been able to be as organized as in other countries and have remainedweaker in terms of political influence.

GENERAL OVERVIEW

Kurdish political structureshave occasionally experienced unityeven if such rhetoric is voiced, differentideologicalorientations andexternal connections show that they struggle to unite around common goals.Therefore,thepath to establishing an independent stateacross the regionthe most fundamental problem before them is the internal divisionsamong the Kurds. However, these political structures also currently know that a Kurdish state establishmentis difficult torealize.

The power vacuum in Syria has partially led to the emergence of a structure similar to the model in Iraq aeven though it paved the way for the emergence of jihadistgr oups' potential to regain strength, the Iran–Israel tension's regional ckeeping vulnerabilities alive and the influence of the US and Israel in Syria make itdifficult for the Kurds to clarifytheir long-term political goals.

All these developments present the Kurdish movement withserious risks as well as opportunities. Throughout history, tbeing supported from time to time bygreat powers and subsequently abandoned to their own fate is a reminder thatstill needs to be taken intoconsideration today.

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Arspread across a fragmented geography, possessing different political structures, and at times having conflictinginterests, theattempt by Kurdish groups to establish a common state poses challenges for bothregional balances and national security concernsdue to theirhighly complicated and challenging process. The clear stance of regional states against such a development also demonstrates that this possibility is not realistic in the shortterm. The Iraqi Kurdistan Region exambased on the premise that a similar structural attempt in Syria emerged, while it isobserved that regional and internationalpowerstruggles make thesustainability of such aformationindicates that it is weak.Therefore,the idea of an independent Kurdish state, while occasionally coming to the agenda as a result of regional transformations, is not realistic in the short term.realizthe possibility of a clash isquitelow.