Global risk in the shadow of a strait

Iranian state television has broadcast statements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, citing Israel's military operations in Lebanon and Gaza as justifications for opening new fronts and keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. These statements demonstrate that Iran is not merely expressing a political reaction, but is also prepared to utilize strategic tools that could influence regional balances.

The inconsistent and ambiguous rhetoric of US President Donald Trump is laying the groundwork for Iran to pursue strategic initiatives that could directly impact the global economy and energy markets. One such initiative is the potential closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait via the Houthis. Such a development could have consequences that seriously affect not only regional security but also global energy supplies and trade routes.

The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which is approximately 32 kilometers wide and also known as the "Gate of Tears," is one of the most critical transit points between the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean. Holding strategic importance for world maritime trade, this strait serves as the shortest and most economical maritime transport route between Asia and Europe.

The strategic importance of Bab-el-Mandeb, through which approximately 12% of oil trade and 8% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass, increases even further during periods of heightened tension around the Strait of Hormuz. In the event that Hormuz becomes unusable due to a potential crisis, Bab-el-Mandeb emerges as one of the critical points for energy supply security for Europe and the US. For this reason, even the possibility of the Houthis closing Bab-el-Mandeb creates serious anxiety in global markets.

In its official rhetoric, Iran argues that the root cause of the instability in the Red Sea is Israel's military operations in Gaza. While Tehran evaluates regional developments within this framework, it is simultaneously attempting to use its influence over Bab-el-Mandeb as a strategic tool of pressure.

Iran's Pressure Move from Hormuz to Bab-el-Mandeb

Iran's capacity to exert pressure through proxy forces in the region has frequently been a subject of debate. In this context, the possibility of the Houthis increasing attacks on commercial vessels around the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb is being raised and evaluated as a factor that increases maritime security risks. Indeed, the Houthis have announced that they can continue their operations against US and Israel-linked ships. However, the real impact here may not be limited to the occurrence of attacks alone. The increased security risk in the region could cause many shipping companies to change their routes to avoid the possibility of being attacked. Therefore, even if Bab-el-Mandeb is not effectively closed, this situation could deal a significant blow to global trade.

Economic Consequences of the Closure of Bab-el-Mandeb

The closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait could have serious consequences for energy markets. Assessments suggesting that oil prices could rise by 30-50% demonstrate how dependent the global economy is on energy supply. Economies with high energy consumption, such as the US and Europe, could face oil supply problems in such a scenario.

In this case, it is expected that ships seeking new routes in maritime transport would turn to the Cape of Good Hope route, which is safer but longer. Longer routes will increase transport times and costs. This cost increase could reflect not only on energy prices but also on a wide range of areas from consumer products to the food sector. Any disruption in the global trade chain directly affects production and supply processes.

Furthermore, countries in the Horn of Africa could also be negatively affected by a potential crisis in Bab-el-Mandeb. Rising import and export costs for countries in the region could increase their economic fragility.

Geopolitical Show of Force

Iran's messages that the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait could be closed via the Houthis can be evaluated as a strategy aimed at exerting pressure on the US and other international actors. With this threat, Iran is trying to demonstrate not only its capacity to exert influence through proxy forces but also its influence over regional trade routes.

Such threats can also lead countries that are externally dependent in terms of energy and trade to seek new routes and adopt policies of greater self-sufficiency.

In conclusion, the closure of Bab-el-Mandeb, like the Strait of Hormuz, has the potential to deal a significant blow to the global economy. For Iran, such a threat can be read as an effort to reflect the military and economic costs created by the war onto its rivals, expand its area of regional pressure, and demonstrate that maritime security is interconnected.

It is also important in terms of showing that Iran still has the capacity to exert influence through its proxy forces in the region. Iran has revealed that it can maintain its influence over a vast area extending from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and that it can use these areas as a strategic element of pressure when necessary.

However, in the period ahead, Iran's nuclear program, missile capacity, developments around the Strait of Hormuz, Israel's military operations against Lebanon, and the diplomatic processes on the Israel-Lebanon line will be decisive.

Although Iran states that it is reacting to developments in Gaza and Lebanon, the Bab-el-Mandeb move can also be evaluated as a strategic part of its search for an exit from the regional and international pressure environment in which it finds itself.