A historic period in Iran: The presidential election and possible scenarios

ASSOC. PROF. YEŞİM DEMİR

Following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, a presidential election was held in Iran on June 28.

Out of 80 applicants, 6 were selected as candidates. At the last minute, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi withdrew from the race.

In the election, which also featured former Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi, the competition continued between Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Expediency Discernment Council member Saeed Jalili, and Tabriz MP Masoud Pezeshkian.

The fact that the candidates could not secure 50%+1 of the votes led to the election going to a second round.

According to polls, if voter turnout is high, the reformist and ethnic Turk Pezeshkian has a chance of winning.

In the election, where turnout was lower compared to previous years, it was noted that turnout was not high in the provinces (Ostan) of Kermanshah, Tehran, and Kurdistan.

These provinces are also the areas where the reaction to the death of Mahsa Amini was most intense.

This situation shows that the public's reaction toward the regime has not yet diminished.

Jalili, who made it to the second round, is a more conservative candidate, as seen in his election propaganda. He has made statements with a more conservative stance on the hijab, diplomatic relations with the U.S., and certain social issues. Pezeshkian, who was the only person to criticize Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Raisi's policies due to his candidacy being vetoed in the previous term, emphasizes the development of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran to overcome sanctions in his election propaganda and appears more moderate on the issue of the hijab.

If Pezeshkian is elected president, it can be assessed that the state will shift toward a more reformist system and there will be a strategic change to resolve problems.

It can be said that it is highly likely that conservative votes will go to Jalili in the second round of the election to be held on July 5. However, the situation could change slightly if those who did not participate in the first round and those who do not like Jalili's policies go to the polls in protest, and if those who voted for Ghalibaf for their own interests—if not all of them—shift toward Pezeshkian.

In short, the economic situation and freedom will be the deciding factors.

On the other hand, if Pezeshkian wins, the attitude of the Supreme Leader and society, whom he criticized during the election campaign, is a matter of curiosity.

Regardless of whether Pezeshkian or Jalili becomes president, Iran's domestic and foreign policy, as well as its security, will be affected.

One possibility: If something happens to Pezeshkian during or after the election process, what awaits Iran?

Looking at the presidential candidates, the determination of these candidates, the withdrawal of some, and the presence of four conservative and one reformist candidate cannot be considered a coincidence.

As in past years, it is observed that a path was followed to increase turnout by selecting a reformist candidate while a conservative candidate wins.

According to unofficial data, turnout is around 40 percent, and therefore the election will continue in the second round between Jalili and Pezeshkian.

Pezeshkian, who is believed to increase turnout and works in harmony with the system but has his own truths, would be the first president of Iranian Turkic descent if elected. Furthermore, it can be said that this is the point where Iranian Turks have united since 1979.

Pezeshkian, who gained the support of one million people just before the election, has increased his strength with significant support from Shiraz, the center of Fars Province, and Khorasan, as well as the positive approach of Sunni Baluch religious leader Abdolhamid Ismaeelzahi, who stated, "Pezeshkian is in my heart and I am praying for his victory."

In contrast, it is observed that comments regarding the election in media outlets operating against the Iranian regime and broadcasting in Persian from abroad are anti-Pezeshkian.

Propaganda is currently being spread against Pezeshkian, who was known for his leftist views in the 1970s, claiming that he is a pan-Turkist. This situation also means dividing Iran into two fronts. While a message is being sent to Turks on one side, an attempt is being made to send a counter-message to the non-Turkic segment by claiming he is a pan-Turkist.

Any attack on Masoud Pezeshkian, who was born in Mahabad where Kurds are concentrated and who has also received support from other ethnic elements, during or after this election could be perceived as a blow to the spirit of the Turks and could lead to a social reaction very different from that following Raisi's death. Rhetoric that could lead to uprisings that would change the history of Iran, with Tabriz leading the way, poses a threat.

Such a possible situation, which could cause chaos in Iran, which is going through a historic period, could also drag the country into civil war. Subsequently, an opportunity could arise for the "Greater Kurdistan" project and forces that do not want the territorial integrity of Iran.